THE FUTURE IS DRONE WARFARE

The recent attacks against Saudi oil facilities by approximately ten unspecified drones has me thinking about their growing potential in future near-peer, asymmetrical, or civil war scenarios. By leveraging its effect via ultra-precise placement, a cheap COTS drone with a small grenade can do as much or more damage as a major world power’s long-range cruise missile carrying a one-ton high-explosive payload. Unlike a cruise missile, a small drone can be flown, for example, under an ordnance depot warehouse roof to alight exactly upon the most vulnerable spot, measured in inches. In the recent Saudi attack, a swarm of drones launched from an unknown distance have crippled that nation’s ability to export petroleum products, leading to international economic consequences. The small size of attack drones and their global availability makes them especially attractive to non-state actors, or to nations (Iran in the Saudi case) who wish to arm proxies with effective weapons while maintaining deniability.  In the current Saudi (or a potential United States civil war scenario), with Balkanized ethnic or religious groups mixed across the battle space, it will always be possible for an enemy guerrilla team to get within drone-launching range of their targets.

The Saudi drone attack reminded me of this story from 2017:

Kaboom! Russian Drone With Thermite Grenade Blows Up a Billion Dollars of Ukrainian Ammo

A single grenade-carrying drone set off one of the largest explosions in recent memory.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/news/a27511/russia-drone-thermite-grenade-ukraine-ammo/

Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpwEZ_9VLD8

“A drone carrying a grenade infiltrated an ammunition dump in Ukraine, setting off an explosion that caused an astounding billion dollars worth of damage. The incident points to the growing use of drones in wartime, particularly off the shelf civilian products harnessed to conduct sabotage and other attacks. Ukraine’s domestic intelligence service, the SBU, believes that a drone carrying a Russian thermite hand grenade caused a series of titanic explosions at Balakliya, a military base in Eastern Ukraine. Amateur video of the incident posted on YouTube shows a raging fire spewing out of control artillery rockets, and an explosion and shockwave that sent civilians nearby reeling. One person was killed in the attack and five were injured.

“The drone is believed to have carried a ZMG-1 thermite grenadeThermite, a combination of iron oxide (rust) and aluminum powder. The stuff burns extremely hot and easily could have gotten through wooden crates to detonate the munitions inside. The ammo dump is just 60 miles from the Russian/Ukrainian border, where fighting recently took place. According to PM contributor David Hambling writing at Scout Warrior, it’s not the first time military bases in Ukraine have been hit by drones. A similar attempt to blow up the Balakliya base took place in December 2015, when drones dropped 14 grenades. The fires were extinguished by Ukrainian servicemen, and one grenade, a ZMG-1, was recovered.

“In October 2015, an attack on an ammunition depot at Svatovo destroyed 3,000 tons of explosives and damaged 1,700 nearby homes. Two other attacks on ammo dumps took place in February, and another facility was attacked in March.

“Guerrilla groups, terrorists, and perhaps even governments worldwide have rapidly weaponized consumer drones, effectively turning hobbyist devices into lethal weapons capable of killing. In 2016, two French Special Forces soldiers were injured and two Kurdish fighters were killed by an exploding ISIS drone. ISIS has conducted numerous drone attacks during the Mosul campaign and terrorism experts fear weaponized drones could spread outside conflict zones.”

 

 

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18 Comments

  1. Matt in Oklahoma September 15, 2019 at 10:39

    Yup spying, bombing, remotely shooting, firebombing, lasers, radio jamming, listening capabilities, drug drops, IR and thermal capability are all threats soft and hard targets of all kinds are now having to address.
    Everything from military targets, prisons, factories, scientists, rival gangs, to the spouse will need to adjust or be vulnerable.
    Porch pirates and purse thieves will use them and soon crimes from espionage to petty theft will be the norm.

  2. Anonymous September 15, 2019 at 12:32

    5

  3. H P September 15, 2019 at 12:35

    Kill Decision by Daniel Suarez is an excellent novel depicting the near future of drone warfare. In addition to guerrilla troops, terrorists, and governments; corporate interests can also leverage this technology to nudge their agenda forward. False flagging becomes much easier with the use modified off-the-shelf components. This Saudi attack seems overly coincidental coming on the heels of Bolton’s dismissal.

  4. James September 15, 2019 at 12:51

    I would think the drone would be a great choice for delivery of hostile products,as well as observation ect.,oh and they can be just fun to /keep an eye on large grazing livestockuse/a great search and rescue too,la lot of neat ideas for drone usage.As with all tech can be used for cool stuff and nefarious purposes.

    I see soon in our future personal drone ownership banned in 3,2,1……….

    • NC Scout September 15, 2019 at 12:53

      The groundwork is already laid.

  5. enn ess September 15, 2019 at 14:00

    Drone Warfare will be the coming preferred battlefield weapon. You knew it would turn to this as history has shown that once a technology comes on line, even for the most innocent purposes, if it can benefit evil if most assuredly will. How do you defend against it’s use in an oppressive manner, especially when used by those who would exert any and all force to control the populace? After much thought from the beginning of the technology I’ve come to the conclusion the only way in which to control it, aside from outright ban of use by ALL, including gummint (as if that would ever happen), is to control the means by which the drones themselves are controlled. The hubs or control centers such as they are.

    But as the technology evolves even that becomes increasingly irrelevant. As more and more AI is introduced into the actual operation of them even destroying their operations control centers becomes a moot point. Once they are programmed to complete a certain mission their AI will take over and even without oversight they will complete that mission. That mission can only be cancelled by outright destruction of the drone itself or by eliminating/depleting it’s power source. With the ever increasing longevity of batteries or energy equivalent they most assuredly will continue on their mission and proceed to cause mayhem on alternate missions. We live in interesting as well as stressful times. How to live in an AI controlled world, especially when AI is controlled by those that do not give a whit about personal Freedom, Liberty, Rule of Law, or personal pursuit of happiness. I don’t have the answers, and have not heard of anyone that does. Technology will save us! I don’t think so, that’s what got us into this mess in the first place. As our present situation worldwide increasingly seems to degenerate, the solution may present us with the solution in our lifetimes. As the pressure continues and differing factions are increasingly divided, there will be an ever increasing need to simply, Burn it Down…… Burn it all down…..

  6. Devilfish September 15, 2019 at 14:27

    I personally have been experimenting with ‘toy’ drones–some going for as cheap as $50-60 on eBay. The key is to get those with GPS/autonomous capability. Programming takes practice, but it’s simple. They are quite amazing: go to waypoint a (lat/lon) at 200′, linger for 10 s, go to waypoint b at 1000′, linger for 10s, drop to 50 ft, go to waypoint c. I have also learned you have to make a pre-flight checklist. As with everything else, it takes a lot of practice. There are many nuances that can only be learned by doing.

    At about 200’+, they are dead silent. You can’t hear them. If you program it to drop from 1000′ you don’t hear it on the ground until it is right over you and closing almost at terminal velocity.

    Upgrade to the 1000-1500$ consumer ones, and you have some carrying capacity. But, even the $50-60 could carry something a few ounces for less range. The advantage for this strategy is that the are cheap and basically disposable. One can imagine creating a swarm attack at this price point.

    As for regulation, it’s too late. You can’t make folks unlearn tech. I could build one from scratch if I wanted to.

    They are vulnerable to GPS being jammed or taken offline, but doing so would have a lot of blowback.

    I think about these every time I see large crowds of people gathered. In fact, I’ve called local LE and told them I hope they have considered drone attacks as a possible scenario for sporting events, etc.

  7. Mas Casa September 15, 2019 at 18:15

    The week before last I worked Hurricane Dorian response ops in South Carolina. We’ve had four hurricanes in the last five years. Due to my work, I can say that nearly every agency who could conduct search and rescue or infrastructure analysis and assessment (the Domestic Ops phraseology for ISR) has small Unmanned Aircraft Systems – FEMA, Corps of Engineers, Civil Air Patrol, local law enforcement, Dept of Natural Resources, etc. It’s a growth industry; airframes can either be bought off the shelf or even 3D printed.

  8. Bryce Sharper September 15, 2019 at 20:47

    Matt,

    Here’s another one for you.

    There are a lot of great comments in this thread. In addition to what Devilfish said, there’s really no way to jam GPS for one thing unless you visually point a jammer at the drone. You can jam all GPS within a certain area but even that has limitations: a drone could switch to inertial guidance or dead-reckoning for the terminal phase to the target or go “home on jam” and just fly to the source of the jamming with a pretty rudimentary DF receiver like an aviation ADF receiver. EW is a “cat-and-mouse” game.

    The Left likes to focus on guns but at least half the casualties in 4GW are due to explosives which are usually remotely operated.

    Like Devilfish said, there’s no way to unlearn a technology unless civilization itself is going backwards a thousand years like what happened after Rome collapsed.

  9. XP September 17, 2019 at 12:51

    Before you know it, people will get smart and use them against the Leftist financiers who are dividing the minions. Who needs a sniper against a heavily guarded billionaire?

  10. NOG September 17, 2019 at 12:58

    Looks like these were not “drones” like we can have. These were supposed to be Russian designed Iranian re engineered cruise missiles. At least the pictures floating around and statements from gov talking heads show this. The big question is why now? Whats in it for the Iranians? Not supporting the “other side”, but does the Gulf of Tonkin ring a bell? Is our gov any more trustworthy than the mullahs? Back to our subject of drones you can buy off the shelf. I saw a Sailing Doodles video on youtube that describes them sailing off Key West. They had a drone following them recording their trip. Until it got close to a gov site there. The drone just stopped in mid air and would not follow the commands to follow the controller. They had to turn back and when clear of that area, the drone responded. The big question is was this a area denial or was this drone specifically targeted? To me, drone use is way down the list.

  11. anony September 19, 2019 at 12:44

    While not denying the potential for drone use, the above screed wholly buys into the official narrative; that absent any substantive proof Iran attacked SA petro facilities. Really?? WHAT precisely would Iran gain from this? What would Yemenese Houthis gain? More piling on by the US?

    Let’s try thinking this through folks, in an intelligent manner, learning from previous false flags.

    Major players – US, SA, Israel – go from there.

    • NC Scout September 19, 2019 at 13:54

      Iran stands to gain much. The oil that was destroyed was intended for the Asian markets. Their oil is as well. Less supply means higher gains on their part, along with a kickback to their partners over at Rosneft.

      Don’t think the Russians or Iranians aren’t just as ruthless as everyone else in the Great Game. To do so is criminally stupid.

  12. R Daneel September 19, 2019 at 13:10

    MICRO DRONES KILLER ARMS ROBOTS – AUTONOMOUS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE – WARNING !!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlO2gcs1YvM

    It is a “Brave New World” we are heading into!

  13. kypartisan September 21, 2019 at 21:31

    It seems to me that when most people think of drones they either think of the Predator type that can loiter for hours on end dropping ordnance or little 4 rotor things dropping pipe bombs. While this will certainly play a role i think what will eventually become the leader and most useful is home-built large suicide drones. Basically a smart bomb with wings and a GPS. maybe rocket powered or tow launched like a large glider.

  14. Matt in Oklahoma September 25, 2019 at 10:57

    Kypartisian won’t that be a new dimension in school threats

  15. Natural_Texan October 3, 2019 at 08:46

    Drone warfare is the future of warfare.. otherwise there would be no more (or very little) overt warfare. People don’t have the stomach for it anymore with all the false threats and emergencies and the lies to get Americans especially to go to war and back more wars. It’s an ominous development that big attacks and wars will be and are being waged by a relatively few people safe in an air-conditioned room out of sight (oversight) of the public and safe from reprisal. US Air Force has been giving Service medals to drone pilots faster than to actual pilots. If I was a combat pilot this would enrage me.

  16. Anonymous November 18, 2019 at 15:44

    4.5

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