The Sneeze Heard in Wuhan City China – Felt Economically around the World
Yes, the nCoV-2019 virus is scary however it is 10,000-miles away right? Granted China is trying to put the tooth paste back into the tube by closing regions and at this typing Disneyland Shanghai has been closed. As we watch from afar as more regions, cities, ports, manufactures, Starbucks, McDonald’s, et cetera shut down, how will that affect the WORLDS economy? Watching PM’s going forward may be our crystal ball.
Gold is up ~$50- January 2020 over December 2019. It closed $1,581- Sunday. Once it rises and stays above $1,600- the game is afoot Watson! The highest gold price I have seen in my lifetime was in August 2011 at $1,800- an ounce.
Gold 10-Year
Silver is next for a similar Bull run. May 2011 ~$45- today just short of $18- an ounce Sunday. Maybe it’s time to buy some “junk silver”.
Silver 10-Year
Then looking worldwide; in 2017 China exported $2.097T worth of goods. What happens to the world if 25, 50, or a higher percent of exports from China are curtailed? Wally World may have to close in your neighborhood. Dollar Stores will become Ten Dollar Stores. LOL…You get the idea.
Then think locally. How many of the local manufactures around your AO rely on Chinese steel, car parts, clothing, widgets, et cetera to produce whatever they are selling here in the USofA? Being a plant manager or CEO of a company, I would start the planning process for laying off workers. Heck, the largest expense any company has is payroll (Salary+taxes+health insurance+unemployment insurance+workman’s compensation+etc.).
I hope you can see the chain reaction from the first nCoV sneeze in Wuhan City China to the day you and millions of others round the globe receive their pink slip.
Do not let normalcy bias continue. Start planning now for the inevitable folks. If you can pay down those credit cards do it. Start planning a 2020 victory garden today. If you have the space and your local laws allow it, start raising chickens. A dozen can keep two people in eggs daily with a few extra to sell. If you have space, raising rabbits is very easy. If you live in a rural area, have a couple neighbors get together and raise pigs. One 180 pound pig could keep two adults in protein for 6-months. Add to the pigs a milking cow and you will have 2 to 3-gallons of milk a day. You do not have to do it alone. That is why you have built a neighborhood community…Right?
It is up to the AP readership to keep an eye on PM prices, the stock market, shortages on the shelves, et cetera and adjust as needed to meet the canary dying in the coal mine. Start the planning process today and come up with a list of “what ifs”. Once that is done, then make plans to meet each “what if”. Do not be the person who just watches but never acts. Remember, normalcy bias will get you and your love-ones killed.
On that pleasant note, 73 & God Bless Brothers & Sisters.
Freedom Through Self-Reliance®
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About the Author: johnyMac
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GUNS N GEAR
An online “infomercial” from financial adviser Porter Stansberry motivated my family to start preparing for crisis/disaster, almost 9 years ago. It petered out somewhat as our kids entered college. JohnyMac, we’re in NE PA as well. ‘
Johnny,am wondering,if it all hits the fan why in hell would one pay off?down credit cards(I have no credit cards)?!I would load em to the max with goods and supplies,going down last thing I would worry about ifs me credit rating!
As for banks/stocks ect. perhaps if all other aspects covered(good for you ya rock stars!) then perhaps a amount in 1’s and 0’s,but,would be something I feel could afford to lose(perhaps because I maxed out credit cards!).I look at this corona thing as not a beer I care for and just a remider,are you prepped/what can you reasonably do to be more prepped ect.
Best of luck to all of us who try and if you can safely perhaps help another get ready and a new friends(s)/teammate(s).
James wrote, Johnny,am wondering,if it all hits the fan why in hell would one pay off?
Ethics James, ethics.
God Bless Brother.
JM,
IMO, You’re right on the money with the 2nd order effects. We collectively are a nation of consumers and consumerism has the potential to get interesting in 2020.
Unfortunately, also just IMO, the 3rd, 4th, and 5th order effects of something of China’s magnitude have the potential to be much further reaching.
Markets may shift due to changes in supply and demand globally, not just for the products themselves, but for all of the other critical components necessary to bring (or not bring in this case) those products to market….the transportation industry and all that it encompasses for one example. Using just this one category, we have: fuel, maintenance, shippers, receivers, transporters (sea, air, train, highway, etc.).
We’re already seeing a decline (and cancellations from previous reservations) of recreational travel. This adds to the effects on local and global economies.
Obviously, the medial industries are seeing a boom due to this, so it works both ways. It is a shifting of sorts, not a straight decline overall. With a population as large as China’s, there is potential for global influence for how these incidents may be handled in the future.
None of this is even taking into account any of the vast conspiracy theories running rampant right now.
Only time will tell what the eventual outcome will be. IMO, anyone making any type of predictions based on the limited knowledge and data we have is just plain silly. We can only monitor and prepare.
-K
Yupper Kilo, Only time will tell what the eventual outcome will be. IMO, anyone making any type of predictions based on the limited knowledge and data we have is just plain silly. Isn’t it interesting how so many jump to a solution on the latest event de jour without first acquiring additional information or qualifying the information that is available.
Thank you Brother for your perspective and comments!
RFA here: this is why we plan and prepare for a multitude of events, imho, not singular events like: Low Probability High Impact vs High Probability Low Impact type of things…Me, i plan and prepare for this: Truck Stoppages, and i do not fucking care the why or how they stop for a lengthy period of time: martians, global warming, ice storms, chicom paratroopers, super volcano’s, pandemics, mooslum invasion, et al. for if they stop for a protracted period of time, we are fubar’d (the typically sheeple) when they stop, all hell breaks loose in hours or at least days….
Great article here, this is what i personally use to get folks thinking and acting on being prepared, besides the “normal, day to day shit: https://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/just-in-time-when-the-trucks-stop-america-will-stop-with-immediate-and-catastrophic-consequences_04022012
We are effectively out of debt, and i will have zero qualms about maxing our cc cards if required to obtain additional supplies…
I worry about the ebt/snap card folks, the folks who have less than 1k in the bank and live welfare check to welfare check, or paycheck to paycheck with no larder or cash reserves…. great article here: https://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/bracken-when-the-music-stops-how-americas-cities-may-explode-in-violence/
know this, the threat will come from family, neighbors, friends and the like…..
4.5
Good article, as usual Johny. As you know, my spouse works in the fashion industry, and in her particular company they are already feeling the effects of the supply chain interruption. There’s no work for her and her fellow employees until either the Chinese factories start producing and shipping again, or until management finds new sources of goods and manufacturers. This is a microcosm of what is occurring throughout the entire retail world. The sheeple are still not realizing the repercussions of the Wuhan virus. I was in Wally World (Walmarts) today, and products are still on the shelves, but some items were not in stock, like lamp oil, and none was coming in either..
My greatest concern is not the immediate threat of the virus, but the secondary effects. The virus may be the first domino in a cascade of threats which could effect everything we hold dear. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. But have a plan!
Amen Jackalope in TN!
People tend to be more myopic when things are good like they are now. However, in a time of just in time inventory controls things can go sideways in a NYC minute.
With a $2.4T plus (2019 numbers) export industry of which ~$500B or 20% goes to the USofA, things could get real ugly within a quarter (3-months) time period. Of all of China’s exports ~33% are related to the digital world e.g. computers, phones, TV’s, etc. The remainder revolve around textiles, medicines, clothing, machinery, etc.
With the USofA being the world’s largest importer of China’s goods, here are the next top four countries…Hong Kong $255B, Japan $157B, Germany $109B, and South Korea $98B. We have oil, coal, and gas as imports going for us though, while the aforementioned countries do not.
Last which I did not touch on in my article is can we trust the numbers coming out of China? I suspect the answer is no. They may be double what they are reporting.
Thanks for reading and commenting Brother!
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