Our Economic Future – Q3 & Q4 2020
Since my first article at the beginning of February concerning the Kung Fu Virus titled The Sneeze Heard in Wuhan City China – Felt Economically Around The World and the subsequent articles on this subject (Links at the end of this article) I predicted correctly that this pandemic was not going to be as much of a health issue as an economic one. If we reach the predicted CDC death estimate within the United states of 60,000, this does not compare in any way to the deaths caused by the Spanish Flu during the years of 1918 and 1919 where an estimated 500,000-850,000 died. Keep in mind that there were three waves of that pandemic. June to September, then October to December 1918, and last February through March 1919. The middle outbreak was 3.3 times higher than the first outbreak. The February through March 1919 outbreak was 1.5 times the first months of the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918.
If we were to use the Spanish Flu of the earlier 20th century as our model and using the current estimate of 60,000 deaths during the first period of this pandemic we could have a second outbreak starting in September or October. Continuing to use the Spanish Flu model death numbers the Kung Fu Virus could rise to 200,000 deaths. Then another 90,000 deaths in the early 2021 outbreak. I pray that my extrapolation is off; However, in my past life one of my strong suits was budgeting for businesses. I was rarely off.
With the newly released three-part-plan suggested by Mr. Trump earlier in the week states will start to relax citizen movement and non-essential business reopening’s. I suspect that as more and more states are successful and the virus does not creep up past an acceptable level we will see the DJIA recoup about 50% of its loss since February 2020. Gold will drop and ride the line between $1,600- and $1,700- an ounce, and crude oil will rise back up to $40- a barrel which surly helps out petrol prices we pay at the pump but puts a serious strain to our nations energy industry.
Unemployment will not return to the 3.5% mark for the foreseeable future however, it will slowly drop from its height of April 2020. With that written it will remain high as my guess is that only about 50% of the restaurants will reopen over the next 3-month time frame as restaurants will recover the slowest of all industries within the country.
The housing market will collapse similarly to what we saw in in the 2009-2012 time period. Foreclosures will increase which means there will be a heightened supply of homes and building’s on the market. Think buyers’ market. Here is a short article written last month by Harsh Chauhan titled, US Housing Market Bubble Bursting as Sales Plummet.
With all that doom & gloom written I want to thank the good Lord for giving us all the time before the next predicted outbreak happens this coming fall. What are you going to do with this time?
I suspect most folks will just return to work with a normalcy bias mindset. Then there are the folks who will use the next five month or so reprieve to prepare for the next drama.
Using the Spanish Flu model this is what I would suggest,
- Sell your house and use the equity for a hunk of land in a more rural setting. The next big economic whammy of the Kung Fu Virus is that housing and land prices are going to plummet. Remember the housing market of 2009-2012? People were being foreclosed on right and left. If you have been on the fence to sell or not sell your house get ahead of the curve and put your house on the market now before the glut happens. Try to get as much as you can for it and then buy foreclosed land in the fall.
- If you have any stock in the market, plan to sell it all in August – The first week of September at the latest. The next correction will be somewhere in the 50% range. Once you sell those stocks use the money to buy rural property as mentioned earlier or put the cash in US Treasury or Aaa Corporate bonds. If you choose to stay where you are and will not be selling your house in suburbia, then pay off your mortgage with your cash-out of the stock market.
- Buy food, enough for a year. Buy medicines, enough for a year. Buy ammo – 5,000 rounds for each long gun would be a minimum in my mind.
- Plant a Kung Fu Victory Garden. This will augment your food supply and force you to relearn skills. When spring of 2021 rolls around and the United States is in a greater form of hurt then today, you can feed your family and barter with extra crops. Keep in mind, to supply one person for a year with vegetables you need 1,000 sf per person. Four people in your family you need 4,000 sf under cultivation. That leaves nothing for bartering though.
- Hone a skill. You can always barter labor for what additional your family needs. DO NOT BARTER AMMUNITION for Pete’s sake. Ammunition is perishable and to a degree irreplaceable at even today’s prices.
- If you have the above all taken care of then think about some precious metals. First silver. Buy a combination of 1-ounce silver rounds and junk silver. If you want gold wait till it drops down closer to $1,600- an ounce, then buy it. Gold is only good for one thing in my opinion and that is larger purchases. Tractor, land, cow, house, horse, etc. you get the idea.
- Become reacquaint with our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ.
So, there you have it, Ol’ JohnyMac’s thoughts on our future. Also remember, the economic future here in the United States certainly looks bleak however, just think of what it looks like in Socialist countries across the pond. PLEASE, do not allow normalcy bias to again take up space in your lives.
73 & God Bless
Freedom Through Self-Reliance®
Economic Articles Written By JohnyMac Since February
NCOV-2019 Economic March Around the World
Monday NCOV-2019 Economic Update
“Brink Out Your Dead…Bring Out Your Dead”
USA – Approaching A Fork In The Road
Negative 90% ROI – Congress Spends $2T to Give Out $208B
The American Partisan Lawyer weenies asked me to state that the above article is based on my opinion and should not be used as an absolute but for discussion purposes only.
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GUNS N GEAR
Outstanding article sir. This article will be my go to action plan for Spring and Summer 2020. Thank you kindly for taking time to write a great action plan.
Johhny,you are much more optimistic then me,hope you are right.
LOL James. And here I thought my predictions were scary enough. On another note…
I have firmly placed my Tin-foil-hat on my balding dome and will now ask the question that I have been thinking quietly, How long will it take to see the NWO rise its head? We currently see many Progressive Governors reach past their legal limits and force their citizens into velvet prisons. Isn’t it interesting that the same people that worried about Mr. Trump exceeding his authority are in fact doing it. With a dozen or so Governors emulating their hero, Woodrow Wilson, how much longer will other countries bend their knee to the New World Order crowd.
Thank you, for reading and commenting Brother
Excellent set of thoughts sir, they smack of good sea sense. I think you are exactly correct with the prediction of multiple peaks of this virus. The Chinese appear to be experiencing a resurgence even after a 3 month lockdown in Wuhan that went far beyond any of the stay at home restrictions practiced here in America. I noticed this morning that beaches were re-opened in Florida and photographs have emerged showing wide-spread crowding of hundreds of people on those beaches. This seems to confirm the observation that much of the population will either disregard suggested distancing outright or only go through the motions for a time until they tire of it. On this point, I am seeing weariness setting in among many of the undisciplined due to the simple inconveniences endured to this point. It does not bode well for them once restrictions are eased and when/if there is a second peak in the outbreak. I therefore expect a clear second peak almost immediately, (within a month) of the easing of these restrictions because of a rush to resume the previous social norms. I think that will obviously land on the President’s lap whether deserved or not and there will be further political and economic consequenses, none of them good, unless you are looking forward to the big blue cities all burning this summer.
We are in very interesting times indeed for real estate as well. The forclosure wave you speak of already seems to be underway to a certain extent, at least in New England. I use tools like Zillow almost daily to watch what is available and the number of forclosures seem to be very high already. It will be interesting to see if these homeowners will be afforded any kind of relief from forclosure and eviction or not . I think a new return to the land movement is underway in this country and the phenomenon includes people from the whole political spectrum. I believe this interest will offset the forclosure trend to some extent and keep the prices up for properties with good farming potential.
mike fink,
I to have started to see an increase of land and homes for sale in my rural part of PA. Looking at my once a week fish wrap news paper, many of those houses and land are due to foreclosure. I would guest-o-mate that at the beginning of January it was maybe 1 out of 100 of real-estate ads – Now it is about 1 out of 10. Something to keep an eye on for sure.
One last thought…I did not vote for Mr. Trump I instead wrote MrsMac’s name in for President. With that written, I thank the good Lord every day that Trump won in 2016. Could you imagine where we would be if we had Progressive Hillary Clinton occupying the White House? She would make Woodrow Wilson and FDR look like right wing activists.
Thanks for reading and commenting Brother.
5
JohnnyMac
Good article to help folks focus the mind. I agree that we’ll see a second wave of this in the fall. That seems to be how these things go.
For those in suburbia, I would suggest revisiting the home security plan. Home invasions are up slightly in the nearby city, probably because people are now home during prime daytime burglar hours. Early warning and rapid resident response will be increasingly helpful in the coming months. This probably applies to a lot of rural homesteads too if the zombies start commuting farther to forage.
Get out of debt is always a good idea. Same with learning a skill and owning the tools to ply that trade. Also a good idea to have some basic hand tools, repair supplies, and a book or two on basic home repairs. Yep, the wife will comment about all the junk piling up in the garage, right up until you have on hand material to make immediate repairs from storm (or other) damage.
Most importantly, dust off that King James and read some every day. WT Sherman is credited with saying “Live your life by the New Testament, fight your wars by the Old Testament.” Whether he said that or not, it’s fair advice.
Amen Jon…Amen.
Funny story. In 2015, MrsMac and all of my relatives kept asking me what I wanted for Christmas. I told all of them the same thing, Used Books. Yupper a simple DIY used book (s) on home repair, gun smithing, planting, butchering, etc, etc, etc.
Used books are cheap and offer an incredible amount of forgotten information. The unexpected outcome was that the folks that went to the used book store came out with Christmas presents for me along with Christmas presents for them. ?
I am excitingly waiting for garage sales to start up again this year, for me to add to my tool, cast iron cooking pan, etc. collection. Maybe add some more books to my growing selection on amateur radio too. Maybe a used transceiver like another Icom 718 or 735 ?
Thank you for reading and taking the time to comment Brother.
Good thoughts. There’s a fair amount of other writing out there that supports follow on “waves” for CV19. I don’t see hardly anything to DISAGREE with, So like RTO Jerry, I’ll be re-reading and looking at the calendar and news harder. If you can salvage something from this fiasco, the power to you!
Jeff B.
Coldsteel1983,
This whole lock-down drama is pure cow manure. I am worried that things will not deteriorate even worse before September. Not because of the virus but because the stupid government is standing in the way of folks making money; to feed their family and pay bills like, car and house loans.
I was out this morning dropping off eggs to a friend. I drove past the local beauty parlor and they were open with a half dozen cars in their parking lot. I know the sheriff will not shut her down nor the one State Trooper assigned to our little rural corner of PA. They are afraid that someone will take a few shots at them. LOL.
Thanks for your comments Brother.
I wonder if the socialist utopiae will be hard up enough, and believe we’re weak enough, to repeat history
I do Idahoser. I do.
Thanks for commenting Brother.
Another great article, Johny. I agree with most of your suggestions. As you indicated, it’s important to liquidate paper assets and buy tangible assets, whether beans, band-aids or bullets. As you suggested, stocking up on lead based assets is going to be very important, and ammo prices are climbing everyday!
With those large gardens,you did not mention the equiptment and supplies to prepare and amend the soil,maintain,weed and harvest the produce. Eating fresh is good but also no mention of storage-whether drying,canning, dehydrating, freezing and the equipment to accomplish it then space to store that amount. No mention was made of the most important part-seeds. The proper varieties for the location,microclimate,soil,must be obtained then a plan for propagation,harvest,preparation and storage-plan for a minimum of two more plantings(everyone who has grown food knows the losses to animal predation,weather and many other situations) plan on 20%-30% just for seed production(1200ft/sq-1400ft/sq pp). Extra seeds are a hot barter item even now,especially heirloom varietys.
Thank you RonV for reading and commenting.
1) I addresses all what you wrote to in the article through what I do and referencing books and links so folks can do their own research. I am not going to hold someone’s hands. They have to put some sweat equity into what “they” do ala research.
2) Canning, freezing, storing what you harvest whether it be vegetable or protein is a whole different topic. I will cover that when the proper time comes.
3) Keep in mind that all the authors try to keep their article in the 1,000-word category. Some are a bit more while some are a bit last.
4) Last, I invite you RonV or anyone else out there to submit an article on this subject, canning, or any preparedness topic to me for editing and placement on American Partisan.
Thanks again Brother for reading and taking the time to Comment.