Could the World’s Largest Capacity Hydroelectric Dam be about to Break?

Three Gorges Dam in Hubei Province, China spans the width of the Yangtze River. A massive concrete structure 7,661 feet long it is the world’s largest capacity hydroelectric dam, at 22,500 MW. While the power generation is impressive, one of the most important functions it serves is to mollify the flooding from the Yangtze, a seasonal river. Downriver from Three Gorges are major industrial areas, the now-infamous Wuhan, Wuxi, Yangzhou, Zhenjiang, Shanghai, and Nanjing…a third of the countries population live in the river basin and half of it’s agricultural output comes from there. Flooding is a constant issue, as are ‘super floods’ that were semi-regular before the Three Gorges and other dams were used to regulate the rate of flow along the river. In 1954 Wuhan and nearly 75,000 square miles along the Yangtze were flooded, with Wuhan remaining flooded for three months.

Currently, the Three Gorges Dam is under pressure due to massive amounts of rainfall and a second major flood that hit the dam on July 18th. A third flood is gathering, with less roughly 160m of its 175m of capacity already taken. The first hit the dam at approximately 53,000 cubic meters/second peak flow rate, the second one was 55,000 and the one forecasted to hit Tuesday is estimated to be 60,000.  President Xi has already issued evacuation orders, but a fraction of what would be required to prevent massive casualties even in the event of a partial breach of the dam. Complicating the situation are a panoply of older dams and reservoirs of questionable integrity. Particularly since Chinese engineering is about as well thought off as Chinese media, and for good reason.

Why does any of this matter? Geopolitically, if the dam even partially gives way, this could be a Rubicon moment…pun intended…for the Chinese Communist Party. Xi, like the rest of us, has had a rough go of it in 2020. First Hong Kong roiled by protest, providing exceptionally bad press to the regime on a global level. Chinese are notoriously averse to embarrassment and their reaction to the protests was also seen as gross overreaction and bungled at best. Layer on top of that the Wuhan coronavirus debacle, with the majority of the world seeing China as the root cause of the virus. The world also is wondering why the Chinese government is allowing people to sell bats for human consumption out of the back door of a virus lab. I am still curious as to why bats are considered edible in China, but I’m just gastronomically conservative that way. In response to this, Xi did not just lock down huge swaths of the country using methods that are reminiscent of Kim Jung Un, the concomitant economic fallout stalled an already tepid Chinese economy. The China of 2019 was hardly the economic powerhouse seeing 8-10% GDP growth year over year, but rather had begun to plateau. The unprecedented economic carnage in their industrial centers (around the Yangtze river), has created even more of an impetus for the first world to divorce itself from Chinese industry. India is beginning to flex their muscle and with human capital and excess and significantly less political baggage, represents an attractive alternative to China in addition to manufacturers pulling back to domestic production. Now introduce flooding that has already destroyed not-insignificant amounts of crops and cities upstream of Three Gorges Dam and a third flood on the way. A national disaster of that kind could very well spell regime change or spark some significant internal struggle as an already battered Chinese population reaches its breaking point. If Xi was anyone but a godless Communist, I would feel bad for the guy.

For the US a humbled China could prove more dangerous in the short run. To keep his power Xi could very well lash out and use the millions of unmarried military-age males at his disposal to galvanize popular support for himself. The short term result could be finding out how good China’s brown-water navy is and just how drone/electronic warfare is going to look in the 21st century. Alternatively, if there is nothing but economic devastation, the effects will be felt around the globe. China is about to enter its harvest season and if the breadbasket of over a billion people floats away then the strain on global food prices could be immense. China has already booked its second-largest US corn purchase in history, to fulfill trade-deal obligations with the US. A massive decrease in domestic agricultural output would spike food prices here, impacting a US economy already reeling from months of closures. Similarly a sudden drop in industrial and manufacturing output would create supply-chain disruptions and logistical nightmares for domestic industry in the US that relies on Chinese products for raw materials or components. The redhead and I were joking about what July’s surprise would be, as we seem to be descending further into Dante’s Inferno every month. Perhaps the descent into the next circle is someone figuring out the the frequency to generate mechanical resonance in a large span of concrete…

 

 

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About the Author: Jesse James

The Millennial your professor warned you about. Incontrovertibly opposed to neoliberalism and post-modernism, including their roots, on a theological, philosophical, economic and political basis. My curriculum vitae spans chemistry, biology, law, and western jurisprudence. Juris Doctorate. Recovering libertarian and ivory tower resident. Reluctant monarchist because I read too much history, and watched CSPAN one too many times. Christian in the vein of Augustine and the Five Solas, advocate for patriarchy, western and Christian tradition, and the nuclear family. Avid hunter, fisherman and outdoorsman. Described as a ‘food snob.’ Lover of old bourbon and old books. Happily married to my favorite redhead…my helpmeet and the one that makes it all worth it. I live in Virginia but will always be a Texan.

14 Comments

  1. Old South July 29, 2020 at 09:20

    Damn, NCS, I love the way you think. Not only do you introduce facts/events but you analyze/expound on the second, third, fourth order effects from those events and why it is important for US. Additionally, you keep a strong eye on the Chi-comms. That, alone, is a full time job. Many thanks for your efforts @ AP!

    • NC Scout July 29, 2020 at 09:23

      Thanks for the kind words, but I didn’t write this, Jesse James did.

  2. Old South July 29, 2020 at 09:37

    I stand corrected-thanks to Jesse James for this excellent piece.

  3. Anonymous July 29, 2020 at 10:25

    5

  4. Bad_Brad July 29, 2020 at 12:31

    ” Similarly a sudden drop in industrial and manufacturing output would create supply-chain disruptions and logistical nightmares for domestic industry in the US ”

    There’s very little supply chain left in China for US manufacturers. That’s why they’re pissed. And if you’re a CEO still relying on China, you are sharp as a marble.

  5. Dave July 29, 2020 at 12:37

    Do you think we could get all Americans (or world citizens) who believe the Chinese Holiday Flu originated in China to jump at the same time and perhaps nudge that dam into crisis?

  6. HP July 29, 2020 at 14:14

    I recently came across a theory that the CCP actually would welcome a disaster such as the collapse of 3 gorges. Remember- they’re communists- they thrive on the death and destruction of their native population. A disaster of this magnitude could be used to serve many objectives. The chaos could be used as cover to launch an invasion of Taiwan. It would divert international attention away from the wu flu they unleashed. The flood would eliminate a million+ people that they cant feed or employ. They could garner international sympathy and consolidate domestic control. They could unleash a “refugee” wave on the US West coast (where the state governments would welcome the invaders with open arms). Keep in mind the recent “refugee” waves at our Southern border were estimated to contain 80% military age men.

    Who knows- I wouldn’t put anything past these godless freaks. Analysis that I’ve seen of satellite imagery shows that dam structure may have already buckled. The CCP is actually telling local populations that the record flooding and incredible pressure being exerted on the dam is in fact making it stronger. They will not give their people any warning. Pray for the people living in harm’s way. Whether the dam goes or not- global food prices are going up- now is the time to stock up.

  7. Green Mountain Shooter July 29, 2020 at 15:26

    And the city of Wuhan is down stream from the dam. Are the Chinese smart enough to move the lab that they so graciously let the virus out from?

  8. Alaska Paul July 29, 2020 at 16:26

    The CCP had 3 objectives for 3 gorges dam: electricity generation, flood control, and ship movements up and down stream using locks. Electricity generation and flood control are conflicting objectives, as maximizing electricity generation requires a relatively full reservoir and flood control requires enough extra capacity to handle and manage floods to prevent large discharges downstream.

    It is pretty clear now that electricity generation won out in that objective race. The reservoir has remained full, so it cannot absorb surges due to storms. The operators have to release large flows of water out of the reservoir, which causes flooding downstream. So, for a large storm event, you cannot cram. You are either ready for the event, or you have to release large flows and flood downstream and take the consequences.

    If you had a catastrophic failure of the dam, you would have an existential crisis within the country when 400 million people are affected and huge amounts of Chinese infrastructure are destroyed. A cornered animal or a cornered CCP would be dangerous to the world. Everyone in the world has a stake in this mismanaged mega-project. Better develop contingency plans.

    Interesting times, indeed.

  9. The Discoverer July 30, 2020 at 01:06

    “Perhaps the descent into the next circle is someone figuring out the frequency to generate mechanical resonance in a large span of concrete…”

    In WW II, the Dambusters story is instructive. https://www.historyextra.com/period/second-world-war/dambusters-raid-success-effective-second-world-war/

    However, I cannot believe they will not release enough water, despite downstream damage, to prevent a breaching of the dam. It’s simply “too big to fail”.

  10. MEALONE July 30, 2020 at 10:04

    Everything depends on China’s thoughts on how to react to a catastrophe that is as sure as sunrise. A failed structure release could send the CCP into DOOMSDAY mode; If we go we’re taking everybody with us. China’s paranoia of the West is, IMHO, key to their decision making. A mega-disaster would damage China more than anything the West is willing to do militarily. Being so weakened China could react like a cornered animal. I guess we will see.
    Great article, btw. As usual.

  11. James July 30, 2020 at 11:44

    While no fan of the Chinese govt. do hope dam holds due to the millions of average citizens just trying to lead their lives,raise their families ect.

  12. Anonymous August 4, 2020 at 12:05

    4

  13. DAN III August 5, 2020 at 20:54

    Truly. The ChiComs are not a threat. Every member of the United States CONgress from the 106th CONgress thru and up to the current group of scoundrels on Capitol Hill. THEY are the major threat to National Security. Not the ChiComs !

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