Natural News: US would quickly lose against China if they invaded Taiwan

(Natural News) A U.S. Air Force general has warned that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be devastating to the U.S. military thanks to the former’s aggressive military build-up in recent years.
In a recent interview with Yahoo News, Air Force Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote said that the outcome was based on a classified Pentagon war game simulation carried out over the years. Hinote said that U.S. forces were losing more quickly in recent simulations after Beijing’s new military capabilities were taken into consideration.
“The definitive answer if the U.S. military doesn’t change course is that we’re going to lose fast,” Hinote said. “In that case, an American president would likely be presented with almost a fait accompli.”

U.S. forces lost in wargame simulations

The U.S. Air Force conducted a simulation of a conflict set more than a decade in the future around September 2020. This simulation started with a Chinese biological-weapon attack on U.S. ships and bases in the Indo-Pacific region. Using military drills as cover, China would then deploy an invasion force to attack Taiwan, while at the same time targeting U.S. bases and ships in the region with missile strikes.
“Whenever we war-gamed a Taiwan scenario over the years, our Blue Team routinely got its ass handed to it, because in that scenario time is a precious commodity and it plays to China’s strength in terms of proximity and capabilities,” said David Ochmanek, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for force development who’s now a senior RAND Corporation analyst.
“That kind of lopsided defeat is a visceral experience for U.S. officers on the Blue Team, and as such the war games have been a great consciousness-raising device,” he added. “But the U.S. military is still not keeping pace with Chinese advances. For that reason, I don’t think we’re much better off than a decade ago when we started taking this challenge more seriously.”
The results of the war game are particularly alarming as the Chinese Communist Party has escalated its war-mongering toward Taiwan after U.S. President Joe Biden took office. In late January, one Chinese military official even threatened war against the island.
More recently, on March 10, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that a Chinese anti-submarine warfare aircraft entered the country’s southwestern air defense identification zone (ADIZ). This is the latest in what has been nearly daily incursions into its ADIZ since the start of the year.

China could attack within the “next six years”

During a Senate Armed Services hearing on March 9, Adm. Philip Davidson, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command warned that the Chinese regime could invade Taiwan within the “next six years.” He stated that the U.S. military was losing its ability to deter conflict in the region. (Related: Threat of global nuclear war now even higher than during the Cold War.)
“I think our conventional deterrent is actually eroding in the region,” he said, citing the Chinese military’s “vast advances” in size and capability over the past decade.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy, China’s naval arm, is now larger than the U.S. Navy. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command projects that by 2025, it will have three aircraft carriers in the Western Pacific to the U.S. Navy’s one, 12 amphibious assault ships to the Navy’s four, and 108 modern multi-warfare combatant ships to the Navy’s 12.

U.S. military needs to focus on deterring China

Part of the issue lies in the fact that the Pentagon has been distracted fighting counterterrorism and counterinsurgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan for two decades. Meanwhile, China has been free to focus on what the Pentagon terms an advanced “anti-access, area denial” (A2/AD) strategy in the region.
Beijing is currently laser-focused on Taiwan and regional hegemony, while the U.S. military must project power and prepare for potential conflicts all over the globe.
In addition, complacency has struck U.S. military’s senior officers thanks to it being the perennial winner in a number of wars.
“My response is that China’s growing military confidence is manifesting itself in an increasingly belligerent approach to its neighbors, the growing frequency of the PLA’s violation of the airspace of Taiwan and Japan, and the bullying of other neighbors in the South China Sea,” said Ochmanek. “Under Xi Jinping there has been a dramatic increase in such provocations compared to a decade ago, and I think it’s grounded in his belief that militarily, China is strong enough now to credibly challenge us.”
According to Hinote, the key now for the U.S. military to regain its ability to deter Chinese aggression would be to restructure U.S. forces in a way that causes Chinese generals to question whether or not they can win.
“If we can design a force that creates that level of uncertainty and causes Chinese leaders to question whether they can accomplish their goals militarily, I think that’s what deterrence looks like in the future,” he said.
The only problem, Hinote noted, is that the defensive posture that they researched in the war games is still not the one reflected the U.S. current defense spending plans.
“We’re beginning to understand what kind of U.S. military force it’s going to take to achieve the National Defense Strategy’s goals,” he said. “But that’s not the force we’re planning and building today.”
Follow CommunistChina.news for more on the threat Beijing poses to the stability of Asia and the Western Pacific.
Sources include:
TheEpochTimes.com 1
News.Yahoo.com
TheEpochTimes.com 2

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About the Author: NC Scout

NC Scout is the nom de guerre of a former Infantry Scout and Sergeant in one of the Army’s best Reconnaissance Units. He has combat tours in both Iraq and Afghanistan. He teaches a series of courses focusing on small unit skills rarely if ever taught anywhere else in the prepping and survival field, including his RTO Course which focuses on small unit communications. In his free time he is an avid hunter, bushcrafter, writer, long range shooter, prepper, amateur radio operator and Libertarian activist. He can be contacted at [email protected] or via his blog at brushbeater.wordpress.com .

20 Comments

  1. Jose March 18, 2021 at 14:43

    Even if we could win, we will be betrayed and have our asses handed to us by them. They (the globalist US branch) may use it to recruit our best though patriotism and just send them off to die. Much better than rounding them up here. The us globalist will just give them all our plans and locations. It will all be coordinated. Just a theory.

    • Luke March 18, 2021 at 17:06

      It’s an interesting theory Jose. I don’t think any of the older more experienced military (traditional types) would fall for it. I spent last 20 years a Republican thinking R=good, D=bad. Thanks to DT’s 4 years and the last year my focus has shifted to R=75% shit/25% ok and D=evil.
      I can’t foresee any event or circumstance that creates a waive of Patriotism now or future. Certainly nothing like 9/11 did. After what our leaders did to us with Covid, riots, and the election I can’t even tell you I would be sad if we got thumped. But as I keep saying we need the populace to turn and see conservative Americans as hero’s. Right now there are so many that will gobble up the Domestic Terrorist shit. If the Elites starting sending hellfires down our chimneys most of the sheep wouldn’t probably think twice.
      NC posted a video earlier of Naomi Wolf “The Return Trip to Fascism.” She explains everything from an academic perspective. That woman and her audience are everything progressives love. She admits that she is one. But damn she is right on the money. Very worthwhile audio IMHO. Either people like her speak up and wake up the masses or we wait for something bad to happen. Getting our asses kicked by China would be bad. A complete economic meltdown similar to the Great Depression another. Only after that level of pain will the sheep stop grazing. And only then can the sheep dogs do their jobs.

      • Gary B Fox March 18, 2021 at 18:14

        Luke, you say Republican 75% shit 25% ok. I understand D=evil. Does that mean Trump was a good or bad influence on our military. Not looking for confrontation just answers. I worry greatly for our country.

        • NC Scout March 18, 2021 at 18:24

          Just my opinion: If anything he was neutral at best. Early on he ordered the reinstatement of the transgender ban, which SecDef Mattis ignored and the Joint Chiefs openly refused. This was the biggest bellwether of the years to come.
          He gave the green light to hitting Syria for zero demonstrable purpose, then green lighting more spending on high tech bridges to nowhere.
          Women still cycled through Ranger School, with lowered standards. Females began cycling through SFAS, with one completing the pipeline and being awarded a Long Tab, only to be chaptered out of the Army for negligently discharging an unregistered weapon at her home on post. Women in any combat role should have immediately been brought to a halt.
          Black female West Point cadets giving militant black power salutes in uniform in a group photo. Their commissions should have been immediately revoked for making political statements in uniform.
          Morale down the shitter. A Joint Chiefs seeming to only obey themselves. Standards out the window. Bases being renamed in the interest of “diversity”.
          I think you get the idea. Short answer: Nah, he was ineffectual because the institution is literally out of control.

          • rto-jerry March 19, 2021 at 08:49

            I agree 100% Scout. Trump was a psyop sent to destroy the conservative right forever (January 6th is proof). I am concerned for the young warriors still in the military. It is now a complete gong show of leftist lunatic dogma! “Fag” Army will not stand a chance against any hardened squared away military be it Russia or China. You nailed it on the female in combat arms. DO NOT BELONG!!! Trump didn’t change that policy. He allowed nonsense to continue and corrupted Generals will continue the decline of our fighting forces seeing as they are totally compromised individuals. DO NOT re-up young warriors!! We need your mad skills at home!!!

        • Luke March 18, 2021 at 19:17

          I’m not going to kid you Gary I am concerned too. It’s a strange atmosphere sort of a calm before the storm. You get up go to work and pretend that you and everyone else thinks shit is normal. But there is anxiety in the very air we breathe. Sometimes you try and let go of some of this which I have; especially with the anger. It does no good. Until we reach the breaking point try and live your best life.
          I can’t tell you much about Trump and what he did with the military. I have to guess that most of the combat ready forces liked him for his patriotic attitude alone. As far as moving the needle on some of the crap done by previous admins i am sure NC said it best. What I do find funny about Trump is that without him we wouldn’t (at least most of us) know shit about what is going on behind the scenes. And therein lies the biggest problem and it is impossible to put back in the box. Too many people know way too much and our Elite rulers know this. I suspect this makes them paranoid and edgy like all despotic leaders in the past.

          • NC Scout March 18, 2021 at 20:23

            This is a dead serious statement: If you’re concerned about your nation’s direction, you should be spending every waking moment engaged in some sort of training or seeking those training opportunities.
            Have skills to offer and things to bring to a Team when that day comes. Just because you (not YOU specifically, but everyone reading this) may not understand or see organization now does not mean it will not occur. The people suggesting it won’t are ignorant of human nature, history, and life in general and should be ignored.
            Be part of the solution.

    • Mike freidsen May 9, 2021 at 12:32

      Good point! We should draft all democrats to be used as cannon fodder so we can retain the best, and brightest, instead of killing them off in communist democrat wars.

  2. Dana Henry March 18, 2021 at 14:56

    I have thought about this scenario and Taiwan for years. Taiwan/China has always been a crap shoot.
    Had President Trump remained the legitimate CIC in the WH I could see China taking six years to mobilize against Taiwan. However, with Biden/Harris/whomever in the WH I would not be surprised if China didn’t move on Taiwan before our next elections. This is China’s best opportunity strategically with dems firmly in control. Why wait and risk another President Trump administration.
    We’ve been out manned and out gunned in the Asian Pacific area for decades. Our (USN) vessel command has also deteriorated. I don’t think they have the talent to go up against the Chinese.
    Because of PC less than capable personal are being promoted on the Bridge and they’re making some real bone headed mistakes. I’ve been at the helm of unlimited class US Merchant ships, surrounded by 100s of small vessels, and never hit one.
    Under the democrats, China might be tacitly allowed to move on Taiwan and the US wouldn’t offer anything more serious than a face saving PR response. It may well even be negotiated via back channels.
    I can’t see this administration going to war over Taiwan.

    • Marvin johnson May 9, 2021 at 12:30

      Out manned, and out gunned in the Pacific- nailed it! A cool expensive offense is useless if you have no defense, and only enough military stamina to last a week or so. Every conventional, offensive, waterborn weapon system we have is out reached by the Chinese. Out numbered by the Chinese, and out functionally successed by the Chines (their stuff actually works). Instead of keeping thefinancial compressor running to maintain our hollow but inflated military industrial complex, how about using the Israeli/Chinese/Russian models? Steal, or buy, opposition hardware that actually works. Copy it. Use it. If you have fewer aircraft than your opponent, you lose. If you have fewer anti aircraft missiles than your opponent has aircraft, you lose. If your aircraft can’tfly as far as your opponents, you lose. If you have fewer anti missile-missiles than your opponent has missiles, you lose.

      • Dana Henry May 10, 2021 at 10:49

        You summed it up well. You said something else that stuck a nerve. Steal whatever we need. That’s what intelligence is all about. What do we do? We steal. Remember the EP-3 that went down in 2001 after it collided with a Chinese fighter? We carry the same equipment on board. The main ship may stand off shore but we have “fishing” boats that can get in close and sniff. We’ve been preparing for years and as I have seen our technology given to the enemy and politicians going to bed with them I am not confident the results of a head to head.I know this numb nuts administration is not gonging to honor our commitment to Taiwan. They have no honor and it’s a losing proposition. Excellent anlysis, sir but I wish I was wrong.

  3. Anonymous March 18, 2021 at 15:11

    5

  4. boss21 March 18, 2021 at 16:31

    Pentagram making vaccine mandatory in July. ‘Soulless killer , takes one to know one Putin’ recalling ambassadors. To the bunkers ?

  5. boss21 March 18, 2021 at 18:49

    Putin just challenged Xiden to a live discussion. He said sooner would be better- ‘ I want to go to to go to the taiga this weekend to relax’.Does Putin know the fucker is a hologram?
    Also would sat phones be a good idea to bridge the gap from phone to radio? Mike Adams, Jones and others are talking about a text alert system through them as a backup .

  6. Cavguy March 19, 2021 at 09:21

    The USA is Crumbling, the pillars of the Former USA were sabotaged long ago. When our jobs were sent over seas, when the federal government grew larger than the US Constitution lays out, its continued future was over. And this is nothing new, rise and fall of nations has happened and will continue as long as man walks this earth.
    Why should we give a shit about Taiwan anymore? Why send our soldiers out to police others when our southern boarder is a gaping hole with criminals coming and going with approval from the Thief in Chief and the rest of his ilk?
    When the call up comes for citizens to establish a picket line along our boarders I pray I receive the signal. Ill be more than happy to operate an LPOP or FP on the line. Foot patrols I’ll leave that to the youngins.
    Theres just not much to be positive about lately since the Great Steal!
    Cavguy

    • NC Scout March 19, 2021 at 09:59

      “Theres just not much to be positive about lately since the Great Steal! ”
      On the contrary, I see much to be positive about. Every class I run has truly amazing people in it, all on the same page. So things might look grim in one direction and that’s fine- its out of our hands. But there is a tomorrow. And a better Nation.

      • GenEarly September 9, 2021 at 09:15

        You are building a better country person to person it’s exactly what We need and within our sphere of action.
        On the Strategic outside our sphere of action it seems a bit more dire considering the disgraceful bug out from Afghanistan coupled with this past article.
        Taiwan falling to the Chicoms could be the demotion of the US military to just Domestic Jurisdiction and with that view every hammer does seek out a nail.
        JoBama is the perfect administration for an “Armistice” even if we fight over Taiwan which could be equally or worse than just withdrawing.
        If I were Xi the calculation would be to strike now, but the Eastern Mind is different than the Western Mind, they think in multiple decades and centuries while we think in years at best, but mostly month to month.
        An individual’s future is still ultimately in their own hands. Keep going.

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