“Victory Has A Thousand Fathers”

“I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely, in your thoughts, advanced to the stage of Science, whatever the matter may be.”

— William Thomson, 1st Baron Kelvin

 

Victory Has A Thousand Fathers (PDF)

“Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan”

-JFK

Insurgency has been the most prevalent form of armed conflict since at least 1949, as well as the subject of countless historical and contemporary studies. Contemporary discourse on the subject is voluminous and often contentious, but to date there has been a dearth of systematic evidence supporting the counterinsurgency (COIN) approaches, practices, and tenets that make for successful operations. Relying on a collection of the 30 most recent resolved insurgencies, along with a bank of factors that helped or hindered the COIN force in each case and in each phase of each case, several commonalities emerge. For instance, the data show that good COIN practices tend to “run in packs” and that the balance of selected good and bad practices perfectly predicts the outcome of a conflict. The importance of popular support is confirmed, but the ability to interdict tangible support (such as new personnel, materiel, and financing) is the single best predictor of COIN force success. Twenty distinct approaches to COIN are rigorously tested against the historical record, providing valuable lessons for U.S. engagement in and support for COIN operations. A companion volume, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Studies, presents in-depth profiles of each of the insurgencies.
 

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About the Author: Johnny Paratrooper

Born and Raised in Baltimore City, Maryland. History Degree. 8 Years Airborne Infantry and Scouts Platoon. Iraq Veteran. 4-5 Years as a doorman, bar back, and bouncer in Baltimore. Worked in Construction, Heavy Equipment Demolition, Corporate Security, Sales, Forest Service contractor, and the Hospitality Industry. Raised Catholic. Hobbies are race cars and sport bikes. Side projects are HAM radio credentials and long range shooting. MY EMAIL IS [email protected]. Founder of Green Dragon Academy https://www.patreon.com/GreenDragonAcademy

10 Comments

  1. Anonymous March 3, 2021 at 08:04

    5

  2. Paulo March 3, 2021 at 09:59

    Heck… Just throwing this out there…
    One would figure that with way over a millon lawyers in the US, a good case realizing what cruel & unusual
    punishment entails, along with habeas corpus (understanting that Liberty, is way beyond just being behind bars),
    would be made about this “lockdown” stuff.
    Will read pdf you provided JP, thank you.

    • Johnny Paratrooper March 3, 2021 at 10:51

      The PDF is a little dry, but the RAND group does some pretty fascinating work if you are into numbers. Personally I enjoy numbers and a good story. I also have a few other PDF’s that are interesting, but again, VERY dry. I’m going to try to work them into another article somehow.

      • WilliamtheResolute March 3, 2021 at 13:33

        Johnny, I enjoy reading your posts and articles, good info. I was looking forward to reading your last one on SWEAT-MC but it seems it has been removed…just wondering who, what or why?

        • NC Scout March 3, 2021 at 14:10

          He’s refining it.

        • Johnny Paratrooper March 3, 2021 at 15:21

          Accidentally hit the “publish” button on an unfinished article. Meant to hit the “Save Draft” button. That’s a work in progress. I have a bunch of work to do this week/weekend. That Article drops end of next weekend or a bit later.

  3. Juri March 3, 2021 at 14:03

    “””….I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers…..”””
    Well, this is probably one of the dumbest thing, any soldier can say. Normally, one of the first things you learn in the army, that numbers are meaningless. That is why we need warriors in the army, not bookkeepers.
    Character and nature of enemy is what counts, not numbers. Good example is Matt story about Digital Tyranny. Bunch of lesbians and soy boys with Senile Joe in charge disarming 100 millions gun owning trumpenfolk because this 100 million has no willpower, no organization and no idea how to fight back.
    This can be other way around too. 1991, when Soviet Union fell, it had at least 68 000 tanks and lot of other weaponry. Yet people teared Soviet Union down with bare hands.

    • NC Scout March 3, 2021 at 14:10

      I didn’t learn numbers were meaningless in the Army.
      Actually, quite the contrary.

    • Johnny Paratrooper March 3, 2021 at 15:32

      The collapse of the Soviet Union was a false surrender. Also, Communism is an International Organization and always has been.
      AKA, “Workers of the World Unite”. The Soviet Union was one of their home bases and a means of marshall projection.

      • Juri March 4, 2021 at 04:17

        It was real surrender and reason was simple. The system was so stupid and defunct that nobody actually wanted to defend it. It is exactly why numbers do not count. We understood that despite army and security services had millions of men and lot of guns, non of them will fight.
        But about Global communism , unfortunately you are right . Circus burned down but clowns survived and with simple renaming itself to liberal democrats or environmental activists or whatever, commies just hoaxed us all and went mainstream.
        What is the difference between feminist and cannabis activist ? Basically the same as IL 2 pilot and T 34 commander. Both Red Army combatants.
        Communism btw is genetical. They have different brain structure and this the reason why WW III will be more cruel and ugly than previous wars. Communist can never understand normal people and because of that, any peace treaty or secession or any common sense based solution is impossible. Pure biology. Like it is impossible to explain lion that he should become vegan and quit killing smaller animals.
        Different calculation demonstrate that there are 2-4% of people who are genetical communists so if anybody is interested numbers, this is the basis how to calculate amount of possible enemies in WW III.
        And the WW III will come. Communism is global and thanks to God , resistance is now also global.

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