TDG Tuesday: COIN

I started this series, TDG (Tactical Decision Game) Tuesdays, to get you more in the mindset of how you could potentially handle a given tactical scenario with a limited amount of resources and manpower. My goal is to get you to read these scenarios and think about what resources you have available, what sort of scenarios you might encounter, and what gaps you need to fill in your equipment/training.
I will use the basic 5-paragraph operations order format, or SMEAC, to present the scenario as follows;
Situation: Disposition of all friendly, hostile, and adjacent forces.
Mission: What we are trying to do.
Execution: How we are going to do it.
Admin & Logistics: Who/what is getting where and how.
Command & Signal: Who is in charge and how they are communicating.

TDG 6: COIN

Situation: Guerrilla Warfare Scenario. You are a PLA Lieutenant Colonel in charge of a rear area where your troops have been subject to ambushes by a local guerrilla force. You command a logistics battalion, but division has granted you additional units to help secure the region.

  • OPFOR Situation: Enemy guerrillas are operating in your AOR and have proven to be quite a thorn in your side over the last few weeks. They recently ambushed a supply convoy that was your responsibility to protect, destroying vital ammunition and fuel headed to the front lines in the North. Their strength is unknown, but estimated to be between 15-30. Previous attempts to pursue them have been fruitless, as they seem to vanish into the countryside once your troops try to counterattack.

  • BLUFOR (PLA) Situation: Your AOR is Shannon County, Missouri. Your Logistics FOB is located near the town of Eminence at the location marked on the map. You command the PLA 27th Logistics Battalion* with about 1,000 organic personnel, including FOB and convoy security detachments. In light of recent guerrilla attacks, division HQ has granted you what units could be spared to assist you in securing your AOR.

  • Independents Situation: You have limited proxy support in your area. Indigenous Law Enforcement agencies seem to be cooperating thus far, but you suspect that certain of them may be feeding intel to the guerrillas. You also have the support of the local ANTIFA chapter, comprised of about 50 volunteers, which our embedded trainers are doing a good job of arming, training, and indoctrinating to function as semi-autonomous pro-China militias.

Mission: To destroy or force to disband the local guerrilla band in order to stop the attacks on PLA convoys and security forces.

Execution: Up to you. Determine how you will use your available forces to accomplish the mission.

Admin & Logistics: In addition to your organic supply personnel, the following units have been assigned to your command:

  • 1 light motorized rifle company at 70% strength, sent back from the front (30% casualties are generally considered enough to render a unit “destroyed” or at least “combat ineffective”)

  • A SIGINT detachment with radio direction-finding and jamming vehicles

  • 2 additional ISR drones, capable of 50 hours continuous flight time in ideal weather, with visual and thermal cameras

  • A 15-man team from the “Night Tigers” special forces group, specializing in counter-terrorism operations.

Command & Signal: You retain operational command and control of all of your detachments except the “Night Tigers” SOF team, which operates autonomously. You can communicate with your units via a combination of SATCOM, HF, and VHF LOS radios, detailed comm plans will be drawn up by your communications officer as needed.

As you can probably tell, this week’s TDG is a sequel to last week’s Convoy Ambush TDG. Any time you take action against an enemy, especially successful action, expect them to react to your operations by making some sort of change. You should try to anticipate these changes by putting yourself in the enemy commander’s shoes, like I’m having you do in this scenario. You can then be prepared to adapt to the enemy’s changes quickly. This is a never-ending cycle in counterinsurgency operations (abbreviated COIN), one where the most flexible opponent is the most successful.

Feel free to post your answers and discuss.

*Fictitious unit based off OSINT about PLA and USA logistics structure.

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By Published On: April 13, 2021Categories: Mike, Tactical, Training43 Comments on TDG Tuesday: COIN

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43 Comments

  1. americanlife702 April 13, 2021 at 10:16

    Looks like a shit sandwich for the Chinee. Trying to find 15-30 needles in a haystack, and those needles are squirrel shooters. Assuming the 17 squirrel shooters didn’t recover any of the heavier weapons from the convoy last week it leaves them with some limited potential, but I wouldn’t know that as the PLA commander. They’ve raided s checkpoint and ambushed 3 convoys so obviously their effective. Seems like reprisals on the local population would be the most obvious course. Cut the power, cut the water, limit locals ability to resupply by policing food and fuel distribution. Incentivize snitching. Maybe have the soldiers rough up a couple locals and utilize the Anqueefa traitors as spies to report any subversive talk. Let the locals know that everything will be back to “normal” once the “terrorists” are apprehended or eliminated.

    • JD April 13, 2021 at 10:44

      No. Just, No. Do you understand what COIN is and the concept? Any understanding of the modern battlefield against a Peer or Near Peer adversary? Seriously, read a book.
      This is LITERALLY what we have been doing for the last 20 years, with a fair amount of success in identifying networks and taking them out. The problem is that the people we are trying to help, don’t want our help. Also, traditional “kinetic” military approach don’t work in COIN. All you do is piss people off.

      • americanlife702 April 13, 2021 at 11:12

        No not really. I’m not a veteran. I’ve read plenty of books. Watched a lot TV too.

      • Mike April 13, 2021 at 14:57

        Be nice, mate. We’re all here to learn.

    • Wyogrunt April 14, 2021 at 11:03

      I dont see the Chinese wasting any time on hearts and minds or US counter insurgency tactics. I have read that the PLA sees our tactics as weak and ineffective. For a people that doesnt hesitate to suppress, lock up and exterminate their own citizens, being charming to a populace that they know will never see them as anything but an invader is hard to imagine. Not a lot of hearts and minds being won in Hong Kong. While providing incentives to create collaborators will work with some and expand the snitch culture, much of rural America would have to be subjugated. “the people we are tryin to help, dont want our help”. Sound like America? Even if the PLA is welcomed by the DNCCP as a peacekeeping force, outside of blue enclaves how will they be perceived? You can relate this exercise to the German experience in Yugoslavia. They knew the Partisans would never see them as other than an invading force (I know not helped by Nazi policies), but I can see the resistance in America being as determined as the Yugo partisans. That whole coin op is a subject in itself. I see the goal in this exercise to try and predict the enemies course of action, the best predictor of future performance is past performance. What s the PLA doing now? and what have they done previously?
      Give the population the choice, comply or their will be consequences that you wont like. As always the TDG spurs excellent conversation. Wargaming scenarios here is always worthwhile.

      • Mike April 14, 2021 at 11:34

        Valid points, it’s important to know your enemy to predict their actions.

      • americanlife702 April 14, 2021 at 11:55

        I agree with you, I just don’t see them operating like as the other guy said the US or British empires. Don’t want to piss anyone off here but have we even won a war since WW2? I guess that depends on your definition of winning. Patton had some interesting stuff to say about that war as well before his “accident”. COIN (I googled it) seems like a way to just keep a war going indefinitely and hamstrings your own troops. Just my opinion.

      • Phelps April 14, 2021 at 14:02

        If the goal is predicting them, I agree. My scenario would have had them disappearing families rather than interrogating and releasing under those conditions.
        On the other hand, it is useful to figure out what your opponent’s BEST move is as well. I do adversarial litigation for a living. We always game out three scenarios — what are they MOST LIKELY to do, and what is their BEST moved based on what we THINK they know, and what is their best move assuming PERFECT knowledge of what we know. You put most of your effort into countering the first, but if you don’t have contingency plans for the other two (even if the plan only mitigates the damage), you will end up well and truly buttfucked eventually.

        • Wyogrunt April 14, 2021 at 23:28

          That is excellent advice on developing courses of action. I am going to steal that for myself! Thanks bro

        • Mike April 15, 2021 at 08:45

          Bingo. This is what we call the EMLCOA (enemy most likely course of action) and EMDCOA (enemy most dangerous course of action).

  2. JD April 13, 2021 at 10:20

    Initially I’d try to minimize any outwardly discernible change in posture. The infantry company would be rotated “off the line” to a rear morale base to rearm and refit. During this time, I’d detail 40 to 50 soldiers to the infantry company to plus up their ranks (crash course OJT – sure they will not be the same as infantrymen, but they can go through weapons familiarization, patrolling basics, battle drills, SOPs, and become proficient enough to serve as drivers or other positions to free up the infantrymen to perform their core tasking). Once the infantry company is done with rest and refit, they would rotate to the FOB and be tasked with I&I (Intercept & Interdiction based upon actionable intelligence).
    Selected personnel organic to my Battalion will undergo training for convoy security. Gun trucks will begun to be built for use in securing the convoys.
    The ANTIFA group is utilized to help develop insight into what networks exist in the local population. Ideally, they emplace into local jobs such as food markets, gas stations, and restaurants. Basically, their job is to feed information back to the intelligence section for review. Rationing of gasoline would be implemented with records kept of who is buying what (the attacks were carried out over a large distance which points to being mobile, likely by vehicle).
    While the infantry company is refitting, convoys would continue as normal (partial full boxes loaded into trucks to give the appearance of business as normal). At the same time, the drones are going to be up (at least one 24/7). Several hours prior to any convoy leaving, a drone with reconnoiter the route looking for any changes to the route (obstacles etc). If something of interest is detected, that information will be passed along to the SF team.
    SIGINT will be monitoring cellphone activity (maybe grab two to four of the more loyal ANTIFA crowd to serve as listeners to note important traffic), as well as radio (HF/UHF/VHF), and reviewing ISP traffic records (who is going to “questionable/objectionable” websites etc). All of this gets passed to the intelligence section.
    Disinformation will be selectively fed to targeted individuals we suspect of cooperation with the insurgence. We watch for this disinformation to surface and figure out who the cooperators are. Furthermore, patrols are conducted along with local law enforcement to ascertain their status. They will be responsible for helping to enforce a curfew and limitations on local travel.
    While the convoy is moving, a drone will provide ISR overwatch, particularly with thermals. If a convoy is ambushed, the convoy will fight through the ambush and continue on their route with convoy ISR overwatch being handed off to the other drone. The original ISR drone will loiter, locate the ambush position and track the insurgent’s movement back to their ORP and then back to their base of operations/town/residence. This intelligence will be compiled and processed for further actions by the SF team.
    I am not particularly worried about the drones being detected. Given that they have a 50 hour flight time, this places them into the high endurance category of the drones used by the PLAGF. The medium endurance (24 hour flight capability) has a flight ceiling of 9,000′ and the high endurance has a greater ceiling (couldn’t find exact numbers, but it is greater from what I have read). Basically, detection risk for the drone would be similar to a Predator.
    Once the infantry company is back, we start conducting raids on based on the intelligence gathered from the previous ambushes and begin to roll up the network. This would be coordinated with the assigned SF group. During patrols, if opportunities exist to win favor with the local population, we take advantage of them (i.e. sick kids get medical attention, civilians wounded by the insurgents get MEDEVAC and given treatment, food/shelter for those who need it).
    As for ROE, it will be attempted to minimize civilian casualties and will be fairly restrictive.

  3. GhostTiger April 13, 2021 at 11:31

    Stepping outside the box of the exercise, I am intimately familiar with Shannon County and the neighboring counties so I’d like to give some background on the area before I step into the Commander’s shoes. First, Shannon County and the neighboring area is some of the most remote areas in the entire state. There is a reason the Dept of Conservation chose this area to reintroduce elk. The area’s entire economy revolves around two industries- logging and mining. The terrain is hilly, heavily wooded, interspersed with the cattle farms in the lowlands, riddled with natural and man-made caves, springs, creeks, rivers, and lakes. You can literally ride a four wheeler down single lane dirt county roads for 50 miles without a) crossing or encountering a paved road and b) encountering another person on your trip. I’ve done it, not just once but many times. This area is as close to the Appalachians as you’ll probably get West of the Mississippi. Everyone knows everyone, their business, their beliefs, and most of the locals refer to each other as cousins or uncles/aunts even if they’re unrelated in any legal way. They are extremely clannish and can identify an outsider in a heartbeat. I’ve spent considerable time there for years and am known on a first name basis by many of the locals only through the a show of friendship and fidelity during a particularly hard time. This is the kind of place where if you are known, getting two flat tires in the middle of nowhere on a Sunday morning (yep- 10 ply tires NC Scout) will result in someone coming out of the woods in full camo despite it not being a hunting season, making a call on VHF because phones are useless in the area, and a guy climbing out of bed to hot patch your tire in his home shop for free. It is also one of the most conservative areas in a conservative state, and local LE is more likely to pull up to a campfire, grab a log, and drink a beer with you than they are to harass you for minor infractions. Moonshine is a high art in these hills, the people are poor by American standards and used to hard work, hard play, and spend all of their time outdoors. Hunting isn’t just for sport, and it ain’t trespassing if you know the landowner. Guns are still in the back windows of pickups and you get looked at funny if you’re not open carrying, especially in some of the neighboring counties. In short, this is the perfect area to conduct guerrilla operations.
    Back to the Exercise:
    Infiltrating ANTIFA supporters into local places of business isn’t likely to work, but I’d probably try it anyway. More importantly, I’d send those infiltrators into the churches. Open ears and closed mouths isn’t usually ANTIFA’s strong point, but these locals might be different. I’d also send them to restaurants and the one or two bars around (mostly Eagles Clubs, hopefully they can get in) to do the same. Since explosives are neither hard to come by nor an oddity in recreational use, I’d begin placing surreptitious tracking devices and/or duds within the explosives boxes at the mines. Try to buy off some of the local loggers with a debt relief package in exchange for information. Also begin a process of mapping out the off grid cabins in the area and keeping a list of which ones are unoccupied and which ones aren’t and mapping the roads to them. Ideally you would be able to map out key intersections of backwoods trail and use your special operations units and some supporting infantry to set up ambushes along these areas. This would honestly be a full time job for the ISR drones, but is the most likely source of success. A cabin that is unoccupied and then suddenly full of activity in an area anywhere near a guerrilla operation should receive a lot of attention in a hurry. Finally, because of the rarity of cell towers, use scanners and ISR drones to monitor local radio, especially Marine VHF frequencies as they are the most common forms of communication in the area with CB radio being a distant second place. Overall, the biggest factor in the success of securing this area would be time and attrition. If you can occasionally kill a few guerrillas and out last their shooting supplies, you will eventually find the area more manageable.

  4. MikeJ April 13, 2021 at 12:13

    Are the Chinese really concerned with winning the “hearts and minds” of Americans? It seems to me that most of their efforts are to depopulate the NA continent, and repopulate with Chinese colonizers. Given how they have treated the Uighurs and Tibetans, they are more likely to either imprison all working age men and use them for slave labor, kill the ones who resist if possible, use the attractive women for themselves, and kill the children below the age of usefulness. I’m thinking that if they do show a presence here, it will be more like Ghengis Kahn than the British/American Empires.

    • Mike April 13, 2021 at 14:51

      For the sake of this exercise, assume that their intent is conquest and indoctrination (commie hearts and minds equivalent). This scenario has the PLA as the enemy, but it could be any modern military.
      If they really were exterminating the populace as they went, resistance would be literally every man, woman, and child who could hold a rifle, and their job would be 10 times harder. That’s an entirely different scenario, however.

      • Matt April 14, 2021 at 04:43

        Mike,
        If they were wanting to eliminate the populace, the easiest scenario would be to pop an EMP attack late fall at the end of the growing season (through one of their surrogate buddy states of course). The proposed hardening of the electric grid won’t happen under Basement Joe and Texas has shown what the power grid going down during the winter will do.
        With that timing people would have to survive the winter and through the next growing season until the crops came in. AND, they’d have to produce and preserve enough to carry themselves through the next winter.
        How many people do you know who have the supplies, knowledge/skills, and land to do that? The report by the Congressional study on EMP attacks estimates a die-off rate of 85 – 90 percent of the total population in the first year. That’d make taking the land a whole lot easier.
        Definitely why food storage and growing skills are so vitally important.
        Matt

        • Mike April 14, 2021 at 10:38

          Excellent point. Ours is a fragile existence, it wouldn’t take much to shatter it.
          And they call us paranoid for wanting to be self-sufficient.

  5. Matt April 13, 2021 at 13:31

    I’m at my wits end. I’ve tried subduing these damn Yankees, but to no avail. Everything I’ve tried has been fruitless and each action causes more of these imperial rebel dogs to spring into action. Their supply of weapons and ammunition seems endless. To top it off I can’t get a good cup of rice to save my ass and the local food is horrible – these idiots put barbecue sauce on EVERYTHING!
    To try to get a feel for the mindset of these stooges, I spent most of a day watching movies inspirational to these idiots from some place called “Brockbuster”. I selected and watched “How the West Was Won”, “The Patriot”, “The Sands of Iwo Jima”, “Big Jake” (that John Wayne guy is really good, except in “The Conqueror” which stunk like old fish heads), a YouTube video narrated by their former President Regan called “Fight for the Sky”, and lastly “Kung Fu Panda” (I needed to wind down).
    I feel that we made a mistake. These people, at least the cowboy types that live in the country, cannot be subdued. They are strong willed and self-reliant. We should have stuck to the costal cities where they make those silly pansified coffees.
    We’ve poked a bear. Not one of our cute little rolly-polly panda bears, but one of their big grizzly bears. The ones with all the teeth. We should have remembered the Herculean effort they displayed while flying materials and supplies to us from India during World War II. Or that besieged German city that they saved during their Cold War with the Russians.
    I shall order my troops to stand down and remain within our base. Then I’ll take a relaxing bath and perform Seppuku (harakiri), I’ve embarrassed the ancestors enough.
    ~~~~~ Okay, humor off ~~~~~
    I just don’t have the background to jump into the mind of a commie drone. I will defer to others who can.

  6. Anonymous April 13, 2021 at 13:31

    5

  7. Dana Henry April 13, 2021 at 16:07

    This is a serious topic but it`s also been one of the more entertaining threads. I`ve been LMAO at some of the posts. We`re ALL here to learn. Even some vets have no experience in this area of expertise and may say something outrageously stupid. I`ll try not to.
    Re COIN I`m comfortable talking about intelligence. I have the T-Shirt. I’ll give it a shot.
    If I`m the PLA (that`s the scenario; right?) and I want to hurt the guerrillas – shake them up, I`d plant someone in their group; actually more than one. I`d salt it with people they`re familiar and bring in some they`re not. It takes time to build a network. You may reap big rewards later.
    At the same time limit the community`s (region) access of travel, association and commodities. Ration power.
    Doesn`t begin to cover all the possibilities.
    I’d use the drones for regional surveillance hold troops in the back until something actionable. Patrol in over powering numbers to minimize threat and rely on my network for Human Intel coupled with the drones.
    Be gentle, otherwise it could be considered elder abuse.

  8. J April 13, 2021 at 16:32

    Mike
    These TDGs are great training vehicles. I’ve uses the technique myself in a former life. Great tool. Great hip pocket training.
    This is probably your best scenario: res teaming the enemy reaction so you can plan the counter-action. Stay a step or two ahead so you don’t get caught flatfooted.
    BREAK.
    Facts: log unit; few shooters and always short pax for the sustainment mission. That is a teal limitation on options. Refitting rifle co: low morale, angry and holding a grudge for losses. Assume 70 pax; 10 vehicles; a couple mortars. Sustainment mission is top priority, so convoys have to continue.
    Assumptions. Night Tiger unit is TACON, so no direct help to the mission. May be able to restrict their AO to facilitate your operations. Local LEO are neutral at best. ANTIFA are reliable, as yet unproven. Enemy actively monitoring unencrypted single channel voice and digital communications; spread spectrum monitoring possible but unlikely.
    Civil Considerations. Population neutral to adversarial. Best to not inflame passions with direct population and resource control measures. (Those can be implemented later if warranted).
    Enemy MLCOA. Continue sporadic ambushes and supply route interdiction. Possible sniper employment against static security posts.
    Enemy MDCOA. Organize civilian protests to block main supply routes with heavy vehicle, crowds, etc. Civilian protests vic FOB demanding food, fuel, medical care, etc., covered by media reporters. Employ baited ambush tactics against responding security forces.
    Concept of operation FRAGO (outline)
    Task: secure convoy operations
    Purpose: sustain combat operating forces in AO
    Changes:
    SIGINT DET: focus collection on MIDRIDGE-ROUND SPRING to identify OPFOR patterns of life, and likely operating areas. Map Spectrum use patterns. On order, jam OPFOR frequency bands based on US band plan.
    Rifle Company: Conduct convoy escort for scheduled LOGPAC missions. Position mortars to provide fire support along convoy routes. UAV section is ATTACHED to rifle company for route reconnaissance or site surveillance. Establish platoon sized QRF at LOGBASE and accept OPCON of LOGBN QRF. Be prepared to conduct cordon & search of suspected terrorist safe houses.
    Civilian Liaison: coordinate for local sheriff to escort convoys from LOGPAC to release point and return. Advertise large cash/in-kind reward for apprehension of terrorist criminals. Employ. ANTIFA volunteers to assist with surveillance of suspected terrorists and surveillance of local schools, churches, and civic organizations.
    Convoy Commander. You are the main effort. LOGPAC times and routes will change daily. Maneuver company will escort convoys, direct security halts and R&S tasks during convoy. Maintain 10 minute interval between convoy serials and 100 meter interval between vehicles. Increase force protection level and vehicle hardening.
    FOB Mayor. Increase electronic and physical perimeter security and access control. Prepare facilities to host local national guests (female and children) should Population and Resource control measures be required.
    Request CHINKSOF TIGERS focus efforts on MIDRIDGE-ROUND SPRING cells. Request combat information from your SSE be provided immediately to LOGBN S2 to ensure LOGPAC security to maneuver forces (Note: No ability to directly task CHINKSOF; only request assistance).
    Just a swag at first order reaction based on a bunch of unstated assumptions about “peaceful occupation goals”, “UN mandate compliance”, and personality preference of logisticians. A very different set of options would be developed by a meat eating maneuver commander.

    • Mike April 14, 2021 at 10:50

      I’m glad you find them helpful! I thought it was time for a change of pace, to remind people that they’re up against a thinking, learning enemy, and that constant adaptation is key to survival.
      hehe, CHINKSOF

  9. Badlands Rifleman April 13, 2021 at 18:37

    So having played the role of mobile minesweeper in a situation very, very similar to this, the PLA commanders only two concerns should be winning over the locals, and force protection. They actually go hand in hand very much. He needs to start putting his feelers out to anyone who needs something he can provide. SWEATMC comes to mind as a great place to start. Without local support his men are done, especially if the insurgents go to planting IED’s like they might have learned about in far away and forgotten places. Also open up the snitch line, use the antifa folks for gathering information, and put the infantry to work raiding houses with an emphasis on capturing insurgents and collecting intelligence. As the PLA commander you’re not going to conduct this mission as a regular infantry commander would and win.

  10. 'mudge April 13, 2021 at 18:44

    Just came off a 13 hour work day and have had zero time to really digest this.
    High level, I’d try to make it expensive for the G’s to get their g on. I’d identify possible ambush points on supply routes and have the drones up 3-4 hours ahead looking for any movement with teams in position at least a day in advance attempting to interdict the g’s.
    I’d increase security everywhere, assuming prior raids gave away uniforms, comms, etc. I’d also think about dispersing a QRF in each of the cardinal directions to support drones and forward observation and interdiction teams.
    I think I’d use ANTIFA for harassment purposes everywhere and anywhere and not much else. Let them do what they do best. I’d definitely start a disinformation campaign to try to find sympathetic LEO’S.
    I dont see this as a short game, but a process, carried out over time on multiple fronts. I’d start exploiting any intel/video i find and use it to my advantage as best as I could.

  11. Mas Casa April 13, 2021 at 19:39

    Please allow a couple of observations.
    First, with regard to the ISR UAVs, they may have some kind of SIGINT collection capability in addition to their EO/IR suite. I as the PLA commander need to talk to the air liaison to figure that out as well as determine if those UAVs can be armed. Bonus if they are. Now I’ve got an ISR (Find and Fix) as well as a lethal (Finish) option.
    Second, I have to consider when I want my Comm jammers to actually jam as GhostTiger said that the locals have the potential too use the same frequencies as my forces. I don’t want to inadvertently comm jam a PLA unit calling for help. Need to deconflict operating frequencies from freqs needing to be jammed.
    Break:
    Not trying to take the easy route but I agree with nearly all JD offered. I would use ISR and SIGINT to discern pattern of life, ahead of further ops. Then I would use UAVs to provide overwatch for a convoy. I’d strongly consider training up the ANTIFA to drive and do some security since, based on what GhostTiger said about the local culture, the ANTIFA stick out like sore thumbs (not from around there) and may not provide much HUMINT value. By using ANTIFA, I also preserve my logistician and Motorized Infantry personnel and can more properly use them for offensive ops or QRF. Although the Night Tigers aren’t TACON to me, they may be willing to share some intel, capabilities or have a way to get additional resources to conduct one of their ops, which in turn may help me conduct my security ops.
    Another option is to put a small force in a somewhat exposed position hoping to lure out the insurgents and then use ISR, comm jamming, mortars and a QRF to decimate the enemy.
    I’d prefer to get as many insurgents at once since I don’t have a consistent force that I can use to perpetually run ambushes and raids.

    • Mike April 14, 2021 at 11:23

      Excellent point about the drones, I know for certain that the Russian military uses drones for SIGINT/EW, I don’t know about the Chinese but it wouldn’t surprise me at all.

  12. Philip Lewis April 13, 2021 at 21:10

    Have the SF group set up OP/LP positions in the area with SIGINT equipment being a priority. Position the mortar teams throughout the area to provide fire support or to hit targets of opportunity should they arise, combined with the ISR available to track and follow vehicles/people of interest. Shadow future convoys with QRF staged along the
    routes somewhere, to react quicker if the convoy gets hit.Maybe use decoy trucks full of troops instead of “Medical Supplies” You must find out where they are staging and where they are moving to and from. If they are smart, they will not be caching anything major near where they live or work for fear of discovery, so it is all going somewhere nearby.
    On the HUMINT front, recruit the local leftist hotties to get friendly in the local watering holes and blue-collar business establishments. Somebody, somewhere wants to tell a pretty girl how much of a bad-ass patriot they are eventually.
    This is hand in hand with other OSINT like who holds an Amateur radio license, is active in the local hunt clubs and sporting clays groups or whatever. The retired dentist from Miami likely isn’t the guy leading the local killers.
    Work the hearts and minds angle with local LEOs about dropping the dime on individuals or families who might be of that “type” to cause trouble. Push the concern for public safety in the community as a priority. We just want to see this thing through, and have nobody get hurt. Help us help you!
    Probably tons more, but thats the basic idea off the top of my head. Something has to break loose eventually. Somebody in their group will be killed or wounded and need treatmenf somewhere, or will drop something that can be recovered and exploited for prints, DNA or traced to a source of supply somewhere.

  13. Phelps April 13, 2021 at 21:21

    Birch Tree is the outlier. Time to shake the tree and see which monkeys fall out. SIGINT team goes in first, gets set up, and sets a baseline for transmissions. HF and cell phone interception is priority.
    After about 5 days of that, the rifle company is sent in to perform a census. There’s only about 650 residents. Drones go up when the census is announced. We do it Biblical — The rifle team goes door to door with US census data, putting notices on the door giving 100 person lots demands that Persons A, B, C, D report to the Dollar General between 11am and 2pm on Day X. Non-Local ANTIFA are brought in as terps.
    Everyone gets fingerprinted and ID checked. When they are checked, they get an ID card and whatever small gift I can arrange (rations, $10 gift card to the Dollar General, maybe something comandeered from another location.) If there is a gift to be offered, it is noted on the notice.
    There are three primary goals. First, we want to note the missing military age males and potential support females. Families missing MAMs or support females will be detained and interogated. Homes missing MAMs will be searched for “hoarding” and if they are shown to have large stockpiles of storage food/rations, batteries, fuel, etc, this will be “redistributed” to neighbors. Guns and ammo will be seized. Houses with guns and ammo will have the family arrested and interrogated.
    Second, we want to intercept communications directing people to return to Birch Tree to comply with the census. If located, the local comm devices will be seized and the operators detained.
    Finally, we want to use a rotation of the UAVs to detect people attempting to infiltrate Birch Tree to return to their families for the census. Those people and their families will be detained for interviews. Their residences and any locations they control will be searched for covert comm devices.
    No torture will be used. Family members will be released within 24 hours. Detainees will be held in purposefully under protected facilities with guards ordered to flee if engaged. When extracted, these detainees and their rescuers will be followed by UAV to their hide.
    This isn’t about reprisal. No torture, no liberties with females. Pressure will be put on families in interrogation, but no one but MAMs will be held longer than 24 hours.
    Night Tigers will be notified of the plans, and given freedom to establish LP/OPs and field operating camps at their discretion around Birch Tree. If infiltrators are detected or if rebels are indicated by SIGINT, then that intel will be relayed to the Night Tigers for assessment. Ambushes and tracking for camp assaults are the goal for the Night Tigers. They will also have discretion to capture or zap infiltrators.

  14. GhostTiger April 13, 2021 at 22:18

    I actually saw a 78 yold man ride a mule at full run down a hillside in Shannon County pursuing a pack of dogs hot on the heels of a wild boar and when the dogs cornered it, lunge off and drive a home made knife through it’s heart because “shooting it wouldn’t be fair.” If I were the PLA I’d host a boar hunt and anvil shoot on the banks of the Current River and try the hearts and minds approach. Btw the best hand made knives I own were made in those hills. NC Scout would feel right at home. Love the replies here so far. Great ideas. J, Badlands, and Mudge are all 3 rocking this exercise in particular.

  15. Razorback Trapper April 14, 2021 at 13:50

    I instantly talk to the local ANTIFA chapter to see if their local knowledge turns up any of the rebels. Before my next convoy, I swung by the local school and take a class room full of children. The younger the better. Preferably preschool or kindergarten. I put a few of the kids on each vehicle of the convoy. While riding my soldiers are to give the kids toys and candy and try to get information out of them. “Does your dad have any cool guns like mine? Does he like to play army?” Stuff like that.They are not going to ambush the convoy and risk killing their own children. While the next convoy is moving, I send my best soldiers to lay ambushes on the most likely areas we would be ambushed or observed heading back to the school before the next convoy. Their orders are to capture, not kill the rebels if possible. Once in possession of a rebel I torture him until he gives me his name. Once I have his name I go get his family and torture them in front of him until he rolls over on the members of the group. I repeat the process to try to locate and destroy the rebel fighters. 15-30 fighters is not enough to ambush my convoys, protect their children at school, and protect their families from my hunter units acting on the intel we get. I take control of all grocery and food supply stores. Only well behaved citizens get rations. Anyone even suspected of being a rebel loyalist is tortured for intel and then executed.

    • KBYN April 14, 2021 at 16:36

      As COIN strategies go, that’d be hella counterproductive. Your mission is to stop the attacks on your convoys and security forces, not to cause a massive uprising.
      You’d get some short term results, but you’d galvanize opposition and create a dozen new insurgents for every insurgent you eliminate. Any moral authority you’d hope to retain would instantly evaporate, and locals in a “wait and see” posture would go over to the insurgents en masse.

      • Razorback Trapper April 14, 2021 at 17:09

        You are probably right. That said. I live about 45 minutes from there. There are not many people in Shannon County. Most there are just like everyone where I live. Completely fucked without Walmart and Dollar general.
        In my response I put myself in the shoes of a ruthless foreign commander with my knowledge of that area. I don’t care about the natives. Only conquering them. I’d be in a very sparsely area full of fat and poor people that mostly live pay check to pay check and depend on the said above stores to survive. I am betting I could starve that place in to submission, and kill the rest that want to fight.
        If there ever is an occupying PLA force here, that is the mentality I expect to be up against.

    • Razorback Trapper April 14, 2021 at 17:52

      I also forgot to add that I would start a curfew. Sunrise to sunset movement only. Anyone out after curfew is shot.
      I also want to add that thinking about being up against this kind of mentality scared me. I have a family. But I think mentally preparing myself for the above being a reality is important. I don’t think they would ever admit it, but I’m willing to bet that every leftists in this country would do this to every red area of the country if they knew they would not get caught. I think they hate us this bad.

  16. Readers April 14, 2021 at 15:11

    Problem is rats in the fields? Just burn the forest down, especially along travel routes, out to 500 yards. An invading army is likely not gonna be held back by ROE like we impose on ourselves.

  17. JD April 14, 2021 at 18:13

    I think a lot of people are missing the point of this exercise (or what I believe is the point of this exercise). The PLA in this exercise is essentially serving as a placeholder enemy for a modern military, with modern warfighting capabilities.
    The heavy-handed, and frankly brutal, manner that many people have suggested operating in is entirely at odds with counterinsurgency theory and practice. Brutal behavior on the part of an occupying military force only serves to antagonize the native population and to alienate them.
    The point of COIN is to successfully separate the fish ( insurgents) from the civilian population ( the ocean ). Doing things like shutting off all utilities, using civilians as human Shields (which is a war crime), and other such behaviors only serves to transition a low level insurgency into a full-blown rebellion.

    • Razorback Trapper April 14, 2021 at 19:26

      Serious question here. Is it even possible to separate the fish from the ocean? Is it possible to occupy a foreign land with out the native population resisting? I mean personally, just the presence of a foreign military conducting operations in my neck of the woods is enough for me to fight them.

      • JD April 15, 2021 at 11:17

        I would argue that it is possible to separate them to some extent, even if it is not complete separation. If you look at Northern Ireland during the 1960s 1970s parentheses the troubles), the British army was initially welcomed into Northern Ireland by the Catholics who believed that they would help protect them against the Protestants and the ruc. This quickly came apart due to abuses and heavy-handed tactics employed by the British Army and the ruc.
        If we look to our own history during the founding, we can see examples of how the failure to effectively employ coin led to a wider conflict. The Colonists viewed themselves as British, with everything that entailed. Due to, in part, (such as and not limited to the intolerable Acts) and heavy-handed military tactics / incidents, led to a widening of the conflict from a low intensity insurgency into a high intensity active rebellion supported by a fair amount of the population.
        For insurgents to be able to operate, they require support of the people. One of the ways that uninsurgency can gain support is to encourage the governmental or occupational forces to overreact to relatively minor or small scale incidences. When the government overreacts and the civilian population pays the price for it, the insurgency wins. We saw this play out in both Iraq and Afghanistan particularly through 2005 and 2006 in Iraq which directly led to the anbar Awakening movement.
        COIN is not a guaranteed way to defeat an insurgency. To minimize the virtually guaranteed end result of attempting to defeat an insurgency through conventional military means.

    • Mike April 15, 2021 at 08:41

      JD, you get it. I’m doing what I need to do to get you guys the wargaming practice you need without drawing undue attention to AP and myself.

    • ET April 15, 2021 at 16:23

      “Brutal behavior on the part of an occupying military force only serves to antagonize the native population and to alienate them.”
      It also delegitimizes whatever good intentions might have been the pretext for things going along so well up to that point.
      Once upon a time, I had a very binary choice: shoot or don’t shoot.
      Shoot the insurgent doing something suspicious…
      Or don’t shoot due to the external considerations – exterior ballistics, distance to the target, backstop, area weapon versus point weapon, ect…
      I didn’t patrol that valley on a frequent basis – the folks we supported did. Shoot and miss (the most likely course of action), and their lives were going to be challenging due to the definite noncombatant casualties which would have resulted.
      Another time, I argued against a course of action which were at odds with Laws and Conventions – it wasn’t a course to be decided at the level it was attempted and would easily put humanitarian/medical assets in the region at grave and unnecessary risk for the retribution which would be as predictable as rain on a Sunday morning.
      Both examples are relevant to JD’s comment – that attempts to fight insurgencies with conventional tactics and actions are, quite often, more doomed than anything else.
      [loses train of thought mulling over missions from long ago]
      Yeah.
      COIN sucks, but the alternative is worse – Soviet-style scorched earth or rolling over in submission for the hopeful belly rub of the new Alphas.

  18. 650 April 16, 2021 at 10:31

    Don’t forget the Ozark meth labs. Tweekers will be ripe for exploitation; as criminals they’re always watching everyone and they certainly know who to avoid.

    • Phelps April 16, 2021 at 12:11

      ANTIFA tend to be hard core users as well, so the local meth man can likely supply you first intel, and later flip or compromise ANTIFA insiders.

  19. […] This TDG builds off of TDG 6: COIN. If you haven’t already done that exercise, get your answer to that TDG and then come […]

  20. Anonymous May 5, 2021 at 00:31

    4.5

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