Beef prices set to surge further as farmers sell off cattle herds

via Fox Business

U.S. cattle producers are sending higher numbers of breeding stock to the sale barn, and some are liquidating their herds entirely, signaling a trend that analysts say will likely push already-elevated beef prices even higher in the not-too-distant future.

The latest cattle report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows the market has contracted to levels not seen in years, with total inventory dropping 2% to 98.8 million head since July 2021.

Cattle inventory has dropped to its lowest level in years as it continues to decline.  (United States Department of Agriculture)

But it’s not just the reduction in cattle overall that is of concern. It’s what is getting sent to slaughter. There is a notable boost in calf-producing females getting sold for processing in addition to steers, which are typically favored for consumption.

“We are seeing large numbers of female stock have been placed in feedlots,” USDA livestock analyst Shayle Shagam said in a radio report for the agency Tuesday.

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The number of females in feedlots is up 3%, and existing herds are down roughly 2.7% from a year ago. Shagam said that combination means “supplies of cattle going to feedlots is going to be declining,” resulting in “progressively tighter supplies of all fed cattle available for slaughter as we move into 2023.”

The latest USDA cattle report shows the market is contracting further amid high input prices and drought conditions. (Mario Tama/Getty Images / Getty Images)

With the price of ground beef up 9.7% in June from the same month a year ago, the ongoing decrease in supply could cause prices to surge even further than earlier estimates. The USDA’s previous price forecast projected average steer prices would be up nearly 8.5% next year, prior to the storm of conditions causing increasing headaches for producers.

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