Columbus Cynic: Stages of Civil War

Originally written by Columbis Cynic and posted to Milsurp Writer

Oftentimes, the sheer size of the notes I collect on a topic of interest I end up researching eclipses what I end up writing.

Over the last few months, I have speculated about the patterns in history regarding civil wars of the past… the American Civil War, pre-Revolution Russia, the Weimar Republic of the 1920s, and the Spanish Civil War. While history never cleanly repeats itself, the rhythm is often predictable…

Big ideas, I know – and I promise to keep this relatively condensed.

I was going through Gabriel Jackson’s Spanish Republic and the Civil War, 1931-1939 when the notion clicked that there might be a definable pattern to ponder – stages, if you will, which might be attributable to some – if not all – of these conflicts.

Stopping to write actual hard-copy notes, I scribbled this sequence:

Identification

Consolidation

Hardening

Critical Mass

Significant Event

Momentum

Attrition

Resolution

Acceptance

Resentment

Identification

Identification could be viewed simply as that: a particular point within a societies lifecycle where “others” are noticed. We naturally categorize and affix generalizations and labels to identify similar values and beliefs – “fun,” “studious,” “boring,” “lazy,” and so on. Inevitably, these social and identifying quantities become more complex, yet the labels never change to reflect the aggregate; they become simple stereotypes. With that, intent is often blindly assigned to the identities and action – by coercion or compulsion – further solidify the boundaries of a group.

Consolidation might be more of a “now what?” reaction to the divisions created within a society. Laws are drafted and enacted, policies are enforced, and expectations/biases – both internal and external to the groups are formed.

Hardening – a natural reaction to unjust laws or treatment, financial favoring, or the continued abuse/neglect/subjugation of “the others” forces another variation of the same question of “now what?” Organization and the beginnings of resistance might occur here; however, this is also the point where deceit and deception for the sake of power might begin to manifest in those who view chaos as a vehicle to elevate themselves for title and control – not for the greater good.

Critical Mass might be one clear event, or it might be the point where it becomes clear that appeasement, to slow the rate of change due to the previous stages, is too little and too late. The unintended consequences of well-meaning laws, the ascension of the ill-equipped, malevolent, or malleable to key roles, the disregard of the future for the sake of the present… all of these might bring a society or nation well past a point-of-no-return without any of the participants ever truly realizing it. This is also where other solid factors such as industrial requirements/capabilities, financial stresses such as devaluation or inflation, and food production/shortages play heavily.

Significant Event is self-explanatory, really. An uprising, an election, a declaration of war – any one thing which is often significant for propaganda purposes but is later viewed as much more of a catastrophic inevitability which has repercussions not imaginable at that moment.

Momentum – or the rush for tactical and strategic victories in the frenzy after the initiation. Much like everything else on this abbreviated list, it is more driven by causality than anything. A blockade needs to be broken/the line must be held; a resource needs to be protected/a material need creates an imperative…

Attrition – the inevitable cost of war in people, money, resources, production, and willpower due to poor leadership, capricious fortunes for either side, the loss of strategic assets/advantages, and the failure of logistics all play heavily into attrition. Usually, through dogged determination, the side which has suffered the most misfortune refuses to accept the reality of the situation; in some cases, attrition turns into some perverse game of societal “chicken” – who will come out of the Pyrrhic victory on top?

Resolution comes from either a surrender or conquest – the spoils of war are dispersed, the parades are held, and the creation of a new path forward all signify the last of the conflict…

Acceptance of that path forward may be genuine, or it may be feigned – but, for the defeated, it is inescapable…

Resentment, however, is never fully appreciated as a driving undercurrent. The loss of a cause, a way of life, and/or identity is a harsh reality which has become the unconditional reality; however, it is never truly forgotten… leading back to Identification.

This is the kind of stuff that rattles around in my mind… all…the…time.

Now… do I think we are somewhere on this sequence?

Absolutely. However, I also think every nation on the planet is somewhere in this sequence. History is funny like that: there is never an easy “You Are Here” indication. In reading about the Spanish Civil War, it took a while for me to figure out who was who in relative terms; even now, the details are hazy because it followed the pattern established in any internal conflict – that nothing is simple. Communists fighting Fascists…Republicans against Nationalists… aided by the Soviet Union/Mexico/Italy/Germany/France… because of a compulsion to win foreign influence and credibility or a result of failed domestic policies and internal terrorism by anarchists…?

When all of this pandemic stuff started, I wrote “Stages of Historical Power” – a stretch from where I started writing a long time ago, from my academic progress, and into a strange but reluctant form of commentary. Like this post, I am treading in the shadows of immense and interconnected ideas. However, posts like these are actually fun to write, even if they are somewhat intimidating in both length (under 1000 words) and subject.

On some of these notions, maybe I am right, maybe I am wrong; regardless, these linked ideas need to be compiled somewhere… because my mind is getting too cluttered with the long lapses in writing.