Soaring fertilizer prices could see millions more undernourished

High fertilizer prices could put an additional 100 million people at risk of undernourishment, a study suggests.

The war in Ukraine has led to the blockade of millions of tons of wheat, barley and corn, but reduced food exports from the region are less of a driver of food price rises than feared, researchers say.

Instead, a modeling study led by University of Edinburgh researchers suggests surging energy and fertilizer prices will have by far the greatest impact on in coming decades.

Until now, how energy and fertilizer price rises and restrictions affects future global food prices was poorly understood. There has also been little analysis to quantify the scale of harm that hikes in the price of food could have on human nutritional health and the environment.

The team used a global land-use computer model to simulate the effects of export restrictions and spikes in on food prices, health and land use until 2040.

Their simulations suggest the combined effect of export restrictions, increased and mid-2022 fertilizer prices—which are three times higher than at the start of the previous year—could cause food costs to rise by 81% in 2023 compared to 2021 levels.

Export restrictions account for only a small fraction of the simulated price rises, the team says. Halting exports from Russian and Ukraine would increase food costs in 2023 by 2.6%, while spikes in energy and fertilizer prices would cause a 74% rise.

Food price rises would lead to many people’s diets becoming poorer, the team says.

The findings suggest there could be up to one million additional deaths and more than 100 million people undernourished if high fertilizer prices continue. The greatest increases in deaths would be in Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and the Middle East.

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By Published On: January 5, 2023Categories: UncategorizedComments Off on Soaring fertilizer prices could see millions more undernourished

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About the Author: Patriotman

Patriotman currently ekes out a survivalist lifestyle in a suburban northeastern state as best as he can. He has varied experience in political science, public policy, biological sciences, and higher education. Proudly Catholic and an Eagle Scout, he has no military experience and thus offers a relatable perspective for the average suburban prepper who is preparing for troubled times on the horizon with less than ideal teams and in less than ideal locations. Brushbeater Store Page: http://bit.ly/BrushbeaterStore

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