Russia’s support is growing in the developing world
Russia’s sphere of influence is growing as propaganda and diplomatic efforts gather momentum and Western powers fail to counter the Kremlin’s narratives, analysts suggest.
A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit earlier this month indicated that net support for Russia had grown in the year since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow ramps up its diplomatic charm offensive of previously neutral or geopolitically unaligned countries.
Assessing countries’ enforcement of sanctions, U.N. voting patterns, domestic political trends and official statements alongside economic, political, military and historical ties, the EIU observed a significant uptick in the number of countries now leaning toward Russia — from 29 last year to 35 today.
“China remains the most significant country in this category, but other developing countries (notably South Africa, Mali and Burkina Faso) have also moved into this grouping, which accounts for 33% of the world’s population,” the EIU report said, adding that these trends highlight Russia’s growing influence in Africa.
Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month and the two leaders vowed to deepen economic ties.
While South Africa caused controversy in February by holding joint military drills with Russia and China on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor indicated that the “massive transfer of arms” from the West to Ukraine had changed Pretoria’s outlook and lauded the country’s “growing economic bilateral relationship” with Moscow.
The EIU said the number of neutral countries rose from 32 to 35, now representing almost 31% of the global population.
“Some previously Western-aligned countries, including Colombia, Turkey and Qatar, have moved into this category as their governments are seeking to reap economic benefits from engaging with both sides,” the EIU said.
“However, both Russia and China are upping the ante in recruiting those countries that are non-aligned and neutral.”
By contrast, the number of countries actively condemning Russia fell from 131 to 122. The U.S. and European Union-led bloc including “West-leaning” countries represents around 36% of the global population, and has exhibited a “strong level of collaboration on sanctions” along with consistent military and economic support to Ukraine, the report said.
However, this bloc also represents just under 68% of global GDP, highlighting an emerging disconnect between wealthy Western economies and the Global South.
“Russian propaganda in developing countries is working extremely well, stoking up resentment against former colonial powers, and I would say also fueling the idea that sanctions from Western countries are fueling global food insecurity, global energy insecurity especially in emerging countries,” EIU Global Forecasting Director Agathe Demarais told CNBC.
“Obviously this is wrong, this is not the case, but I think that it works very well in disinformation campaigns, propaganda campaigns.”
The Russian government has been contacted for comment.
Demarais highlighted that there is a perceived “hypocrisy” in Western condemnations of Russia in the Global South, given the history of Western military intervention — a sentiment Russia has sought to foment in order to deflect attention from its actions in Ukraine.
Many in developed Western countries view the idea of Russia being an “appealing” and “attractive” country to some in the Global South as “impossible,” Demarais said, which underestimates the power of Russia’s message and its positioning of itself as a savior.
Russia and China have increasingly represented themselves to developing nations as alternatives to the West as economic and military partners, in that neither will attach demands around democracy or human rights to diplomatic relations.
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