How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia, China

The long-term effect of the Middle East flare-up is hard to predict. It depends, first of all, on whether Israel is ultimately successful in its stated goal of eliminating Hamas as Gaza’s main military and political force. Another critical issue is whether Israel’s diplomatic relationships in the region and the global standing of its Western supporters can survive the rising civilian casualties in Gaza and the looming horrors of urban warfare in the densely populated enclave.

Mourners at the funeral of an Israeli soldier who was killed by Hamas gunmen from Gaza. Photo: lisi niesner/Reuters

A house in Kibbutz Be’eri that was destroyed by Hamas militants. Photo: thomas coex/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

But, for now, the war launched by Hamas on Oct. 7 with a brutal attack on Israeli towns and villages that killed some 1,400 people, mostly civilians, is proving a boon for America’s main geopolitical rivals. China, Russia and Iran have long sought to undermine the U.S.-backed international system and are now taking advantage of America’s distraction.

“What we are seeing is part of a shifting and moving world order,” said former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, who is currently running for Finland’s presidency. “When the U.S. leaves power vacuums, someone is going to fill those vacuums.”

To be sure, the U.S. is already back in the Middle East, showcasing its role as the indispensable partner for Israel and key Arab nations with shuttle diplomacy and military deployments—an engagement that enjoys bipartisan support and dissipates some of the isolationist sentiment that has been gaining ground in recent years.

Still, as Washington’s attention focuses on the Middle East, Russia is probably the clearest beneficiary of the spreading upheaval. Pointing at the mounting Palestinian deaths—around 2,750 by the latest count—Moscow revels in what it calls the hypocrisy of the Western governments, which have roundly condemned Russian massacres of civilians in Ukraine but offer only mild, if any, criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose forces, according to Ukrainian authorities, killed tens of thousands of civilians as they besieged the Ukrainian city of Mariupol for months last year, compared the Israeli siege of Gaza to that of his hometown St. Petersburg, then called Leningrad, during World War II. This, in essence, equated Israelis with Nazis. Such language, a stark departure from Putin’s once warm relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is part of Russia’s diplomatic effort to position the country as the leader of the global movement against the West’s “neocolonialism,” even as it pursues a colonial war of conquest in Ukraine.

“Any conflict that draws some attention from Ukraine very much plays in favor of Russia,” said Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. “The Russians may not have started it, but they have a huge interest in prolonging the conflict in Israel as long as possible. It would be a win for the Russians tactically, in Ukraine, and strategically, strengthening their narrative against the Western world.”

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