World War 3 and the New World Order

Guest Post by Nick Giambruno

“The only winning move is not to play.”

That’s a famous line from WarGames, a movie about a young computer whiz named David who hacks into a US military supercomputer designed to simulate nuclear war scenarios. David initially believes he’s playing a computer game, but his actions inadvertently prompt the supercomputer to prepare for a real nuclear war. As the situation escalates, with the world on the brink of a nuclear apocalypse, it becomes clear that there is no strategic advantage in nuclear war; any exchange of nuclear weapons would lead to mutual destruction, known as Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). MAD is not just something out of Hollywood; it’s a real concept that is relevant today.

Consider this.

Several credible studies and simulations have shown that a nuclear war between Russia and the US could kill more than 90 million people in the first couple of hours of conflict. Over 5 billion people could starve to death in the following months. Historically, the incomprehensible destruction nuclear war would bring to all sides has prevented direct military conflict between the world’s largest powers since World War 2. MAD is why World War 3 will probably not be like the previous world wars.

Total war between the world’s largest powers that reshuffled the international order defined the previous world wars. However, with the advent of nuclear weapons, total war between the largest powers today—Russia, China, and the US—means a nuclear Armageddon where there are no winners and only losers. That could still happen despite nobody wanting it, but it’s not the most likely outcome. World War 3 is unlikely to be a direct kinetic war between the US, Russia, and China. Instead, the conflict will play out on different levels—proxy wars, economic wars, financial wars, cyber wars, biological wars, deniable sabotage, and information wars.

In that sense, World War 3 is already well underway, even though most don’t recognize it.

Here’s the bottom line.

Russia, China, and their allies want to change the US-led world order that has been in place since the end of World War 2. The conflict is playing out on a level that is below the threshold of direct kinetic warfare because that could invite a nuclear Armageddon. Nonetheless, it is a conflict between the biggest global powers to determine the world order—like the previous World Wars.

It’s important to remember that world orders are nothing new. World orders are how the big global powers have set the rules of the game for centuries. They are simply the architecture for international political relations between countries. On a smaller scale, it’s similar to when the most powerful criminal groups in a given city—like mafias and street gangs—come together and agree on how to divide their activities and neighborhoods among themselves. Sooner or later, though, these agreements always break down. Then, there is a violent power struggle until the criminal groups reach a new agreement reflecting the new power balance.

A similar dynamic is at play with the most powerful countries and world orders. Conflicts among the most powerful countries typically lead to a breakdown and restructuring in the world order. Here is a brief overview of some of the most recent world orders. You can think of them as epochs or distinctive historical periods reflecting the shifting power balance among global players.

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