Is Venezuela Serious About Invading Guyana?

President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela is an exuberant dictator, a lover of military salutes who is being investigated for crimes against humanity, but he’s not reckless enough to invade neighboring Guyana, is he? Would the leader of a country in an ever-deepening economic crisis risk starting Latin America’s first interstate war this century? Well, maybe.

For a century and a half, Guyana and Venezuela have quarreled over Essequibo, a stretch of the Amazon that both countries claim. Guyana has long governed the territory, but Venezuela also claims sovereignty over it, citing maps drawn in colonial times. Last year, Maduro expressed a sudden enthusiasm for seizing Essequibo that took many Venezuelans by surprise. International conglomerates had discovered lots of oil there, but that was in 2015, and in any case, Venezuela, too, has plenty of oil.

Whatever the reason, the slogan “Essequibo is ours” began appearing all over Venezuela—on posters and bumper stickers, as well as on promotional materials for a state-sponsored music festival in Caracas called Essequibo Fest. The ministry of ecosocialism produced a song with the slogan as its title. Then, in December, Venezuelans were called to vote in a referendum. Did they agree to establish a Venezuelan state in Essequibo and extend Venezuelan citizenship to the territory’s residents? Yes, 90 percent of Venezuelans answered, according to state media. Yes, we do.

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