NATO, Wake Up: Time to Respond to the PRC’s Aggression

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In three incidents, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has destroyed the communications cables of NATO members. The first was in October 2023. Although it received little attention in the United States, the PRC committed what can be described as an act of war against two NATO member states—Estonia and Finland—and against Sweden. The Hong Kong-registered feeder container ship Newnew Polar Bear left the Russian port of Kaliningrad on October 6, 2023, and arrived in St. Petersburg on the evening of October 8. On the early morning of October 8, the vessel cut the 77-kilometer Balticconnector gas pipeline and a telecommunication cable on the seabed of the Gulf of Finland between Estonia and Finland that adjoins the Baltic Sea.

Additionally, the day before, the Newnew Polar Bear is suspected of cutting a telecommunication cable between Estonia and Sweden. The vessel cut them by dragging its nearly 7-ton anchor along the seabed. Finland’s Minister of European Affairs Anders Adlercreutz stated in a November 30 interview, “I’m not the sea captain. But I would think that you would notice that you’re dragging an anchor behind you for hundreds of kilometers.” He noted as well: “I think everything indicates that it was intentional. But of course, so far, nobody has admitted to it.”

Rather than dragging, it looked like a precision cut, at least of the Balticconnector gas line. It was cut, but curiously not where the Nord Stream 1 pipe A and Nord Stream 1 pipe B are located, which lie within 900 meters of the Balticconnector break, within the Finnish Exclusive Economic Zone. The Finns reported that the PRC vessel had been sailing at 11 knots but slowed to 1.1 knots, which is necessary to drop the anchor before it crossed over the Balticconnector pipeline. At 1:20 a.m. the vessel crossed over the Balticconnector, and at the same time, the Norwegian seismology center NORSAR detected a tremor at that location. Curiously, the vessel’s Automatic Identification System (AIS) listed the ship as “moored” when it was near the pipeline. When the Newnew Polar Bear docked in St. Petersburg on the evening of October 8, its anchor was not visible.

Not unsurprisingly, NATO did not take any steps to punish the PRC for the event, which emboldened the PRC to continue its aggression.

The second incident was this month on Sunday, November 17, 2024, when the PRC vessel Yi Peng 3, owned by PRC firm Ningbo Yipeng Shipping Co., departed the Russian port of Ust-Luga on November 15 and likely cut a cable that runs between Lithuania and Sweden. The cable is expected to be repaired in the weeks to come.

Incredibly, the third incident occurred this past Monday, November 18, when the same vessel likely cut a fiber optic cable, C-Lion-1, between Helsinki, Finland, and Rostock, Germany, which lies near where the defunct Nord Stream gas pipeline runs. In a similar pattern, the Yi Peng 3 disconnected its transponder and went over the cable just as it was cut. The Danes have been following this PRC vessel, which is now anchored in Danish waters with a Danish military presence at hand.

These dangerous and provocative actions are extremely significant for three reasons. First, these events are arguably acts of war. When confirmed, these would represent state-sponsored attacks by the PRC on the infrastructure of five NATO states: Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, and Sweden. The 2023 incident was permitted to pass without retaliation by NATO against the PRC, either diplomatically, economically, or by reciprocal actions against China’s pipelines and communication cables, or other media of communication between the PRC and the rest of the world. As a direct result of this refusal to hold the PRC to account, Xi and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have been emboldened. A united NATO response is required in order to arrest this bad behavior by Beijing. Deterring future attacks, NATO must require Xi and the CCP to pay a price for their clandestine attacks on the key infrastructure of NATO states. In these attacks, the PRC has done more damage to NATO members than Russia has in its war in Ukraine.

Second, the PRC has a history of using civilian vessels to cut undersea cables, so these actions should not come as a surprise but should be understood as being the standard operating procedure for the CCP, which it conducts with impunity. For example, on February 2, 2023, a PRC fishing vessel cut one of two undersea telecommunication cables near Taiwan’s Matsu Islands, a small archipelago just off the PRC’s coast. Six days later, another PRC vessel cut the second cable, greatly restricting Matsu’s communication with Taiwan and demonstrating some of the steps the PRC will take before it attacks Taiwan.

Third, these attacks demonstrate that the PRC is actively cooperating with Russia. The PRC is undertaking covert action in support of Russia against NATO allies. Beijing’s diplomatic, economic, and military support was already evident, but this is an example of cooperation in covert action. The world is watching as Russia has used tit-for-tat retaliation for the destruction of Nord Stream and now with respect to the Biden administration’s decision to allow ATACMS strikes into Russia. While Moscow has not conducted direct attacks against NATO itself, it seems clear that the PRC has lent a “helping hand” to further their axis of collaboration. The axis between Beijing and Moscow is now a direct threat to NATO members as well as to U.S. national security interests in the Indo-Pacific, including key allies like Japan and partners like Taiwan.

The PRC is attacking NATO’s infrastructure and getting away with it. It is well past time for NATO to retaliate. Seizing the vessel is a good place to start. Banning Hong Kong and PRC-registered vessels from U.S., allied, and partner ports is another. Thus, as the PRC damaged an energy pipeline in 2023, it would be a shame if an energy pipeline to the PRC were suddenly taken offline. Likewise, it would be a misfortune if anything happened to the PRC’s communications with its illegally seized island bases in the South China Sea.

It’s time for NATO to realize that the PRC is its enemy and is attacking its infrastructure. A response is needed.

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James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer are authors of Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure. The views expressed are their own.

By Published On: November 24, 2024Categories: UncategorizedComments Off on NATO, Wake Up: Time to Respond to the PRC’s Aggression

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