America Using Domestic Food Supplies As Statecraft Tool Faces Pressures

Tariff D-Day arrives tomorrow, with President Trump set to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. The timing comes as US imports of agricultural goods hit record levels, far outpacing exports. The new levies risk driving up imported food costs, which could heavily weigh on consumer sentiment and pressure cash-strapped households.

The US Department of Agriculture warned in its trade outlook report last week that the nation’s agricultural trade deficit could hit a record high this year, forecasted at around $49 billion. Meanwhile, the US continues to lose market share in key agricultural markets worldwide. In other words, exports are declining while record volumes of food are being imported into the country.

“It’s a stark turnaround for a nation that once used its abundant food supplies as a tool of statecraft, with the US now facing a future of persistent agricultural trade deficits,” Bloomberg wrote in a report.

The inflection point for the ag trade deficit began in 2019 but exploded under the Biden-Harris regime and will continue in Trump’s second term.

Trump’s next round of tariffs is set to take effect on Tuesday, imposing 25% levies on all imports from Canada and Mexico (and 10% on China). This move could further strain cash-strapped consumers, with prices of everything from avocados to coffee to cocoa to sugar, beef, orange juice, eggs, and all other imported ag goods from those countries set to move higher.

At the same time, China’s state-backed Global Times warned that tomorrow’s next round of tariffs could prompt Beijing to impose countermeasures on US ag exports. If enacted, the US would continue to lose out on one of the largest ag markets.

Bloomberg noted that the only other annual deficits besides 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2024 occurred several years before 1960.

America’s ability to maintain the world’s top ag exporter spot appears to be waning, which may only suggest that its ability to use food as a tool of statecraft also wanes in a world that is fracturing into a multi-polar state.