How Europe has been preparing for WIII – and why Britain isn’t ready

More than 1,500km (900 miles) from London, frenetic activity is underway in the countryside of Poland, Finland, and the Baltic States: bulldozers and diggers are constructing field defences. Anti-tank ditches, tank traps, and pillboxes are being built and installed. In all these countries, laying minefields – even controversial anti-personnel minefields – is under active consideration.

Poland is spending at least €2.5bn (£2.1bn) on its border defence system, including building a sky shield system akin to Israel’s “Iron Dome” to protect its eastern border from a growing threat from Russia.

Last May, during a meeting with European leaders in Warsaw, Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk stated: “Creating an iron dome against missiles and drones is necessary … There is no reason for Europe not to have its missile defence shield,” confirming that work on the project had begun. He added that it requires little imagination to understand that Europe, like Israel, is also in the danger zone.

Poland’s defence project includes physical anti-tank obstacles, bunkers, and AI-powered anti-drone technologies to create early threat detection and surveillance systems. This could be the most significant national security investment in the country’s post-war history, positioning Poland as a European defence leader.

Poland is now spending €37bn (£30bn) on overall defence – 4.7 per cent of its GDP – with further increases under discussion. Meanwhile, in response to the “hybrid war” tactics on several Baltic fronts, hundreds of millions of euros are being invested by the Baltic states to strengthen their defence lines with another major project, planned by Nato members Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, set to begin in 2025.

Across much of northern Europe, more than €1bn is being spent – at speed – on building new ammunition plants, particularly for 155mm artillery shells, which Ukraine is firing at rates not seen since the Second World War.

And what is the UK’s response to an increasing global threat? The country is scrapping £500m worth of military equipment – ships, drones, and helicopters – and will conduct a strategic defence review to decide what to do next.

While defence secretary John Healey acknowledged last year that the cuts are happening amid “war in Europe, growing Russian aggression, and conflict in the Middle East”, the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) will not report until late February 2025 – if we’re lucky. Some suggest that Whitehall bureaucracy could delay it until the summer.

All the while, the clock is ticking. States across northern Europe – the liberal-democratic ones much admired for their quality of life and services – are in agreement: if Ukraine loses its struggle against Russia, the latter may be emboldened to take military action against the Baltic states, Finland, or even Poland.

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