Burma’s Quest for Drone Supremacy: A Cautionary Tale

by Beau Chapman, Alexander Suster, Steven Ahart

In the heart of Southeast Asia, a desperate struggle for power has been unfolding. The Burmese (Myanmar) military junta, facing its most significant challenge since seizing control in 2021, is struggling to maintain its grip on the country. As rebel forces gain ground, the junta has needed to rapidly modernize its approach to the threats posed by Burmese groups opposed to the regime.

Recent research conducted at the Global Disinformation Lab (GDIL) at The University of Texas at Austin has shed new light on the junta’s drone pursuits. Through analysis of commercial satellite imagery, ground photography, and open-source intelligence, our team has pieced together a clearer picture of Burma’s drone program. Our findings form the backbone of this article, offering new insights into the junta’s military aspirations and the stark realities on the ground.

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For irregular warfare practitioners, this analysis offers several insights. It highlights the increasing accessibility of drone technology to non-state actors and authoritarian regimes, emphasizing the need for adaptive counter-drone strategies. The case of Burma demonstrates how even technologically limited actors can leverage a mix of foreign-sourced drones and domestically produced munitions to significant effect. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of comprehensive intelligence gathering on adversaries’ drone capabilities, including their supply chains and manufacturing processes. Lastly, it serves as a reminder that in modern conflicts, the technological playing field is rapidly leveling, necessitating constant innovation in offensive and defensive irregular warfare tactics.

In the past, the junta has harbored dreams of joining the ranks of nations capable of producing advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). The allure is clear: combat drones offer a potent mix of surveillance capabilities and striking power, at a fraction of the cost of traditional manned aircraft. In an era where irregular warfare is increasingly common, drones have become a game-changer on battlefields worldwide.

However, Burma’s attempts at domestic drone production have been fraught with setbacks. In place of their grandiose manufacturing plans, the junta has turned to foreign suppliers like Russia, China, and Iran to support their efforts.

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