Day Three: Fighting Spreads Along Thai-Cambodian Border, Mass Civilian Exodus

The escalating conflict along the highly disputed 500-mile Thai-Cambodian land border entered its third day on Saturday, leaving at least 33 people dead and displacing more than 168,000.

Here are the latest military actions:

• Thai navy and army repelled Cambodian attacks in Trat province.
• Thailand deployed F-16 and Gripen jets to strike Cambodian rocket sites.
• Cambodia accused Thailand of hitting civilian targets—claims Bangkok denies.

Our latest coverage:

• Geopolitical Powder Keg Erupts: Thai F-16s Strike Cambodian Targets In Border Clash
• Thailand Warns Border Crisis With Cambodia “Could Escalate Into War”

Moscow-based American political analyst Andrew Korybko posed a critical question on Friday: What is Thailand’s endgame if its border conflict with Cambodia spirals into full-scale war?

Korybko’s first take: “Demilitarization and regime change might be in the cards…” Read the note here. 

#Cambodia / #Thailand 🇰🇭🇹🇭: “Royal Thai Army” soldiers opening fire on Cambodian positions on the border.

Thai soldiers are using #USA-made 🇺🇸 M16A4 assault rifles; 40mm M203 under-barrel grenade launcher and M433 HEDP grenades. pic.twitter.com/UaDqWY69hB

— War Noir (@war_noir) July 25, 2025

The latest diplomatic efforts to defuse the tense border crisis:

• Thailand insists that Cambodia cease hostilities before any ceasefire.
• Cambodia accepted an ASEAN-brokered peace plan by Malaysia, which Thailand rejected at the last minute.
• A UN Security Council meeting urged de-escalation and regional mediation.

The military balance is tilted heavily in Thailand’s favor (at the moment). Second, Thailand has four times the population and a GDP more than ten times larger than that of neighboring Cambodia.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) wrote in its Military Balance 2025 report that “Thailand has a large, well-funded military, and its air force is one of the best equipped and trained in Southeast Asia.”

Thailand, a U.S. treaty ally, has F-16 fighter jets and modern weapons, while Cambodia relies heavily on Chinese military aid. Thailand has warned about possible Chinese-made missile strikes by Cambodia.

Yet another conflict is emerging in a world fracturing into a bipolar state. The war cycle rages on as major powers rush to build military arms, with threats of further conflicts looming (more here on the investing theme).