A top economist who thinks we’re on the brink of a recession says he’s eyeing these 3 warning signs
- Moody’s economist Mark Zandi recently warned that the US economy is on the “precipice” of a recession.
- Over the weekend, he shared more insights as to how we’ll know if a recession is here.
- “It wouldn’t be surprising if we learn with the coming revisions that employment is already declining,” Zandi said.
Economist Mark Zandi thinks the US economy is on the brink of a recession, and there are a few signs he says that will show one has arrived.
He delivered his dire warning about the state of the economy last week, and followed it up over the weekend with a series of posts on X about what he’s eyeing to know if the economy has tipped into a downturn.
The topic of recession is heavily debated, with economists consistently deliberating over what qualifies. While the US is not yet in a technical recession—defined as two straight quarters of negative growth—other areas like the labor market have been sounding a warning.
Zandi noted in his post that historically, the answer to exactly what signifies a recession is not always clear until after circumstances have shifted. However, in the thread, he laid out a few key factors:
- Payroll employment
- Employment levels
- Job decline consistency
He said that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is considered the arbiter of when a recession begins and ends, noting one key factor that its academic researchers consider above others.
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