Chinese Military Simulates Caribbean War Scenario Amid Trump’s Gunboat Diplomacy

President Trump’s Western Hemisphere defense posture, including expanded gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean targeting Venezuela and, by extension, Cuba, is disrupting Venezuela-to-Asia oil flows, a U.S. foreign policy move that has angered Beijing. This friction was indirectly signaled by Chinese state media on Friday, which aired a segment featuring People’s Liberation Army wargaming simulations of hypothetical conflict scenarios in the Caribbean theater.

The South China Morning Post reported that China Central Television (CCTV) showed red (PLA) and blue (enemy) forces maneuvering aircraft and warships near Cuba and Mexico, with blue units near Houston before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

SCMP explained further:

One screen in the report showed red and blue opposing unit “indicators” – represented by aircraft and ships – manoeuvring near the coasts of Cuba and Mexico. Some of the blue side congregated near Houston, Texas, and headed southeast into the Gulf of Mexico, while the red side was seen in the Caribbean Sea.

In a typical PLA drill, the red side usually represents the Chinese military while the blue side is the enemy.

During the CCTV report, a close-up focused on Cuba showed the lines of trajectory of aircraft and ships in the region in what was likely a simulation of a tactical operation. Chinese researchers were seen pointing to the screen and discussing the situation.

The footage was recorded at a PLA wargaming event held in Xuchang, Henan province, which was attended by 20 units from across the military and its academies. Dozens of simulation systems were demonstrated – all of them developed in China.

PLA war games are rarely revealed, and to air on state television is yet another sign Beijing is furious with the Trump administration’s gunboat diplomacy to topple regimes in Venezuela and Cuba.

Earlier this week, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian criticized the Trump administration for its seizure of multiple crude tankers.

Context is important: China has received much of Venezuela’s seaborne crude exports in recent years, accounting for well over half of total shipments. This is facilitated through a network of “dark fleet” tankers.

PLA’s decision to publicly broadcast wargaming scenarios, an unusually rare event, constitutes an external signal directed at the Trump administration in response to U.S. gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean. The signaling reinforces the rationale for Trump’s move to secure the Caribbean basin first, thereby preempting potential Chinese naval encroachment. This U.S. military reposturing is best characterized as a shift toward Western Hemisphere defense, a framework we view in play through the 2030s (here’s how to profit).