Dealing with Cuba is a different animal – the Head of the Snake
Here’s the reality about regime change in Cuba:
Morale is so low that I don’t think we’d see a massive uprising against American GIs on the island (not saying we need to do that) from the general population. Its youth dreams of moving abroad (many of them already have). The old… https://t.co/S5zJ4yARDl pic.twitter.com/FiPQhtF57t
— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) January 5, 2026
Here’s the reality about regime change in Cuba:
Morale is so low that I don’t think we’d see a massive uprising against American GIs on the island (not saying we need to do that) from the general population. Its youth dreams of moving abroad (many of them already have). The old revolutionary generation is either dead, sick, or decrepit, and Miguel Díaz-Canel simply does not command the respect of the Cuban people.
On a tactical level, would we kick their ass? Obviously, but this is a brutal dictatorship whose entire political identity is built around resisting American aggression. Intelligence and counter-intel are maybe the only things it’s any good at.
None of this is insurmountable. In fact, the greatest challenges are not military, but political. The Cuban regime will wage a massive propaganda fight across the world. And unlike Venezuela, the island does not have a readily available democratic tradition. It’s been ruled by authoritarians for most of its history.
There’s a solution to this, of course. What Cuba has — its greatest resource — is a well-financed, politically sophisticated diaspora. Cuban Americans are absolutely crucial to the island’s future, and we should be prepared for this. No one understands this better than Secretary
@marcorubio and this is a realist administration that’s shown itself to be effective on foreign policy. But we’re talking about a very different political project than Venezuela. This is the head of the snake.


































