How anti-ICE ‘chaos’ mirrors an insurgency

💣 BREAKING How anti-ICE ‘chaos’ mirrors an insurgency

I’ve been studying insurgencies for most of my adult life.

It started in the 1980s, when I was studying guerrilla warfare movements in Latin America, learning how small, decentralized networks embedded themselves in… pic.twitter.com/yv63lR3IJ1

— Asra Nomani (@AsraNomani) January 30, 2026

I’ve been studying insurgencies for most of my adult life.

It started in the 1980s, when I was studying guerrilla warfare movements in Latin America, learning how small, decentralized networks embedded themselves in civilian populations, exploited grievances, controlled narratives and government authority from the inside.

💣 In the 2000s, after the murder of my friend Danny Pearl in the streets of Karachi, I reported on insurgencies in Afghanistan and Pakistan and taught cultural intelligence to US military and intelligence officials deploying to the region to help keep them alive as they faced the Taliban and Pakistani militants. It was my mea culpa for not being able to save dear Danny’s life.

The tactics of insurgencies are associated with jungles, mountains and failed states.

💣 What I never imagined was watching the same playbook unfold, almost textbook-perfect, on American streets, like Nicollet Avenue outside Glam Doll Donuts where Alex Pretti was killed as he had a confrontation with federal agents. As I’ve written, his death was a tragedy, but the left put him in harm’s way and then made him a martyr.

💣 That’s why I was glad to interview Rick de la Torre @vrk_rick
, a former CIA senior operations officer and chief of station who spent decades tracking insurgencies from Afghanistan to the Philippines.

When I walked him through what I had documented in Minneapolis, his response was blunt:

“The violence and rebellion we’re seeing is like an insurgency.”

💣 A data analysis we did at @FoxNews
Digital, comparing insurgency manuals written by the CIA and the US Army with the minute-by-minute activities around Alex Pretti’s killing reveal what I suspected: the tactics on the streets of Minneapolis mirror an insurgency.

Once you recognize the pattern, you can’t unsee it.

You can read the analysis here at Fox News: https://foxnews.com/us/fox-news-di
gital-analysis-how-minneapolis-agitator-networks-use-insurgency-tactics-hinder-ice

We have a really informative video edited and produced by my new colleague Alba Cuebas-Fantauzzi @albahnotalbuh
⬇️ that shows you how Minneapolis parallels an insurgency. Please watch it. (And follow Alba!)

This is exactly what @ConceptualJames
@DataRepublican
@Shaunmmaguire
@XVanFleet
and others have been warning about.
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💣 Here are 10 qualities of and insurgency and how they now show up in America, hiding in plain sight: 💣

1⃣ Enmeshment in the civilian population
Insurgencies don’t stand apart; they embed. In Minneapolis, activists didn’t just protest. They knocked on doors, built contact trees and activated hyper-local Signal networks, block by block.

2⃣ Command and control without uniforms
People assume insurgencies are chaotic. They’re not. They rely on disciplined command and control: dispatchers, scouts, medics, media handlers. Decentralized doesn’t mean leaderless. There is still command and control.

3⃣ Pattern-of-life intelligence
Tracking the daily movements of perceived adversaries is classic insurgency doctrine. License plates logged. Vehicles followed. Movements timestamped. This is pattern-of-life surveillance, not spontaneous activism. That’s what these “ICE Watch” patrols are doing with their surveillance of federal officers and their collection of their data in sophisticated databases.

4⃣Triggering events
Insurgencies wait for catalytic moments and sometimes manufacture them. A confrontation. An arrest. A shooting. These triggering events are used to rapidly mobilize supporters and escalate pressure.

5⃣Kinetic action
When things turn physical, like Pretti’s killing, doctrine calls it kinetic. Violence involving state forces becomes symbolic fuel especially when cameras are already http://rolling.It
’s not a setback, but an accelerant.

6⃣ Control of the information environment
Insurgencies fight first for perception. Rapid video release, coordinated messaging, emotional framing are all aimed at dominating the information environment before facts can settle.

7⃣ Narrative amplification and legitimacy contests
The goal isn’t just outrage. The goal is to delegitimize the state. This is the legitimacy contest: portraying authorities as inherently criminal while casting activists as moral arbiters.

8⃣ Distributed nodes, synchronized messaging
Actions in one city instantly echo nationwide. These are “distributed nodes,” separate cells moving in ideological lockstep, creating the appearance (and reality) of mass momentum.

9⃣ Martyr narratives
Every insurgency creates martyrs. Language hardens. Memory is weaponized. Commitment is signaled. Recruitment follows. That’s why Alex Pretti became a martyr. Same with Renee Good.

🔟 Omnipresent resistance
Insurgencies don’t spike and disappear. They linger. Persistent alerts, continuous surveillance, repeated call-outs and low-level actions create the feeling of omnipresent resistance. The goal is psychological as much as physical: exhaust authorities, normalize disruption and signal that the movement is always watching and always ready.
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Calling the street surveillance of federal law enforcement “protest” misses the point.

Calling it “chaos” misses the structure.

What we’re witnessing mirrors global insurgency tactics I’ve studied since the Cold War and US military and intelligence officers and officials have fought for decades. It’s updated with encrypted apps like Signal, digital propaganda and cultural fluency.

Understanding this isn’t about politics.

It’s about recognizing patterns before they grow out of control.

History repeats itself and insurgency doctrine certainly does. And we’re seeing it now from Nicollet Avenue and Glam Doll Donuts to beyond.