NatGas Rips Higher As Arctic Blast Knocks 12% Of U.S. production Offline

Update (1245ET):

New York natural gas futures surged sharply on Monday after roughly 12% of U.S. production was forced offline by a major winter storm and extreme cold blanketing the eastern half of the country.

The supply shock is now cascading into the power system, pressuring regional grids and prompting the Department of Energy to issue emergency orders allowing utilities in the PJM Interconnection and across the Northeast to operate fossil-fuel power plants at maximum capacity.

As heating demand spikes, oil, coal, and NatGas generation are providing a majority of the supply, preventing widespread rolling blackouts across the eastern half of the country. The focus has been on PJM’s Mid-Atlantic region due to potential blackout risks.

“The winter storm is currently estimated to have knocked offline 12% of US natural gas production, just as demand for the heating and power-plant fuel jumped. The big freeze has strained electricity grids and crippled transportation, grounding thousands of flights,” Bloomberg noted.

It’s important to note that fossil fuel power generation and nuclear saved PJM from collapse. So much for solar and wind…

TP ICAP Group Plc energy specialist Scott Shelton was quoted by Bloomberg as saying the deep freeze has taken about 22% of NatGas production offline in the southern central U.S. corridor, suggesting crude production is likely down by 1 million barrels a day.

At the same time, gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants have fallen to the lowest level in a year, as the cold blast disrupts upstream production and tightens domestic supply.

New York natural gas futures jumped as much as 31% around the lunch hour. This price level is the highest since December 2022. Also, monthly gains are on track for a record …

The thin March premium to April deliveries implies a “short-term, temperature-induced demand spike,” according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

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The major winter storm that dumped heavy snow and ice across much of the eastern US is finally over, but the cold-weather danger is far from over.

Roughly 185 million Americans remain under winter alerts today as Arctic air continues to pour deep into the central and eastern states. Wind chills are dropping into the minus 20s and minus 30s in some areas, with temperatures running 10 to 40 degrees below seasonal averages.

This prolonged cold – expected through the week – will continue to pressure major natural gas production hubs with freeze-offs, send pipeline volumes sliding, and push already-strained power grids to the brink.

The latest on grids: 

• The Electric Reliability Council of Texas projected a record demand of 86 GW on Monday, above its prior summer peak.
• PJM Interconnection warned it faces days of extreme winter demand, an unprecedented stretch for the grid spanning the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic.
• Grid operators are paying large customers to curb usage to avoid widespread rolling blackouts.
• Power prices spiked to crisis levels, with PJM on peak prices averaging about $639 per MWh and ERCOT North hub prices jumping more than 1,200% day over day.

On Sunday, the Energy Department issued emergency orders authorizing PJM to operate power plants at maximum capacity, including those fueled by coal and oil, regardless of limits set by environmental rules or state law. Similar orders were issued for ERCOT and ISO New England.

Golf clap for fossil fuels saving the grid from collapse. It wasn’t solar or wind. It was oil and natural gas.

UBS analyst David Robinson told clients, “Natural gas futures have surged nearly 20% Monday Asia morning as the worst winter storm in recent years in the US has seen surging demand for heating, with plunging temperatures knocking off nearly 10% of production.”

US natural gas futures in New York jumped nearly 20% to more than $6 per million British thermal units when trading opened up on Sunday (read here). Gains have largely held into early Monday, with prices still up about 17% as of 0715 ET.

Highest since 2022.

January could be the largest NatGas futures spike on record.

With 10% of US natural gas production knocked offline just as heating demand surges, this week shapes up as a major stress test for the nation’s power grids. Stack the firewood high and make sure the whole house generator is fueled up.