‘Out Of Africa’: Beijing Slashes Investment Up To 85%

Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

For more than a decade, China’s footprint across Africa has expanded at a phenomenal pace.

Railways in Kenya, ports in Tanzania, energy projects across sub-Saharan Africa, and militarized infrastructure in various places have meant billions in state-backed loans. For decades, Beijing has positioned itself as Africa’s largest trading partner and its most aggressive infrastructure financier.

But something has changed.

In some sectors, such as energy lending by Chinese development finance institutions, investment levels have fallen by as much as 85 percent from their peak years. That’s not a rounding error, that’s a strategic retreat.

What’s really going on? Is China walking away from Africa? Or is Africa revealing something deeper about China’s own economic stress?

It’s all of the above and more.

The Pullback Is Real—and Sharp

According to research cited by the Clean Air Task Force, Chinese development finance for African energy projects has declined roughly 85 percent since 2015. That’s a dramatic contraction in capital deployment.

Separate reporting based on data from Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center shows that Chinese lending to Africa has fallen sharply in recent years. In some reports, China’s investment fell nearly 46 percent year over year in 2024.

This isn’t just a pause. It’s a reset.

For years, Beijing fueled infrastructure growth across the continent through state-backed loans tied to its Belt and Road Initiative expansion. Now, the tap isn’t fully off, but it’s not flowing as freely as it used to.

China Isn’t Leaving Africa, but It’s Changing How It Engages

Before jumping to the “China is out of Africa” conclusion, it’s important to note a few critical facts.

For one, China remains Africa’s largest trading partner. Trade volumes remain substantial and have even grown in recent years.

But lending and investment are different from trade.

Instead of large sovereign infrastructure loans, Beijing appears to be shifting toward more commercially viable projects and private sector–led foreign direct investment. Beijing is also favoring trade expansion over debt expansion.

That’s a broad policy shift. An analysis of broader outbound Chinese investment patterns in 2025 shows a more cautious and selective capital strategy globally—not just in Africa.

In other words, China isn’t abandoning Africa—Beijing is abandoning risk.

The Real Story May Be Domestic

But the context may be less about Africa and more about China. It’s no state secret that China’s economy is under real pressure, including a prolonged property sector downturn, persistent and high local government debt, slowing GDP growth, and weak domestic consumption.

Those challenges have led Beijing to ramp up capital controls and financial risk management, both of which are indicators of a markedly different economy than the one for which China became world-renowned.

In short, China’s days of double-digit expansion are long gone. A new malaise has set in that isn’t easily overcome. Chinese authorities are increasingly focused on stabilizing employment, preventing financial contagion, and managing demographic decline.

When capital gets tight at home, overseas mega-projects become harder to justify—especially in politically complex or financially risky environments. Thus, Africa isn’t being punished—it’s being reprioritized.

Even some critics of the “debt trap diplomacy” narrative note that China has become far more cautious as a creditor in recent years.

Strategic Reassessment, Not Strategic Retreat

China’s Africa policy framework still operates through the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation, which continues to promote trade, tariff elimination for least-developed African countries, and development cooperation.

Trade between China and Africa reached nearly $300 billion in recent reporting, underscoring that economic ties remain strong. But there’s a difference between facilitating trade and underwriting sovereign debt.

China’s earlier model, which provided large, state-backed loans for infrastructure, carried political and financial risks. Some projects underperformed, and other countries struggled with repayment, becoming vassals of Beijing amid intensifying global scrutiny.

Beijing appears to have decided to scale back exposure to such risks, tightening standards and investing where returns are clearer. That’s not ideological behavior but balance-sheet management.

What This Says About China’s Economy

An 85 percent reduction in certain categories of overseas investment doesn’t just reflect changing foreign policy. It signals that large-scale overseas lending no longer aligns with domestic priorities and that conserving capital is a necessity, as liquidity and risk appetite have tightened.

Beijing recognizes that as economic conditions decline, domestic stability declines as well. Therefore, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is prioritizing internal stability by managing debt, stabilizing property markets, and preserving employment. At this point, it’s clear that these rising domestic problems matter more to the CCP than expanding geopolitical infrastructure influence.

It’s not necessarily that the era of unlimited Belt and Road expansion is over, but China is entering a phase of selective, return-driven engagement over broad strategic underwriting.

This is what economic maturation—or economic strain—looks like.

Global Ambitions Meet Financial Reality

The CCP’s global ambitions are now bound by domestic economic reality. Overextension abroad while managing economic fragility at home is a dangerous combination.

Pulling back could signal discipline, economic stress, or both. Economic stress demands financial discipline, and when the world’s second-largest economy tightens its checkbook by 85 percent in key sectors, the story isn’t just about Africa’s financial future—it’s about China’s.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.