Automakers Race Into Humanoid Robots As Timeline For Blue-Collar Job Disruption Emerges

Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee is out with a fascinating note explaining why automakers are making a mad dash into the world of humanoid robotics, arguing that their manufacturing scale, supply-chain depth, and years of investment in autonomous driving give them a structural lead in the emerging physical-AI market.

Lee writes that automakers are also seeking new revenue streams beyond the core vehicle business, with humanoids poised to move from factory floors into the physical world across retail, security, public service, and eventually homes.

From Tesla and Hyundai to XPeng, Xiaomi, BYD, Geely, and Chery, automakers are quickly moving beyond EVs and into humanoids through in-house development, acquisitions, minority stakes, and strategic partnerships. Lee said this trend became visible in China, where multiple OEM-linked robots were showcased at the 2026 Beijing Auto Show.

“OEMs are entering humanoid robotics to boost productivity and unlock new revenue streams,” Lee wrote in the note.

She noted, “Automakers have several advantages across hardware, software, and scale. There is significant overlap between vehicle and humanoid components—motors, reducers, sensors —as well as manufacturing.”

Here are the automakers in the humanoid robot lead:  

1. Tesla is developing its humanoid robot Optimus, progressing from Gen 1 (2022) to Gen 2 and Gen 2.5 prototypes by 2025, reflecting rapid iteration in hardware and software. Its strategy starts with manufacturing applications, with a long- term ambition to expand into consumer and household scenarios. Tesla targets limited commercialization in 2026 and volume shipments in 2027. A key constraint is that dexterous hand capability remains a major bottleneck, limiting real-world deployment readiness despite strong system-level progress.

2. Hyundai, the parent company of Boston Dynamics, is pursuing an aggressive humanoid roadmap, transitioning Atlas from R&D to industrial deployment. Production-ready Atlas robots are being introduced into real factory environments, with initial applications in parts sequencing and heavy-duty manufacturing tasks. The group is targeting annual production capacity of up to 30,000 units by 2028, alongside internal rollout of over 25,000 robots across Hyundai facilities. This combination of full-stack control, large-scale manufacturing plans, and clear volume targets positions Hyundai as the leading OEM in humanoid robot industrialization.

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