U.S. Fertilizer Prices Erase War Spike, But El Nino Keeps Food Inflation Risk Elevated

The good news for US farmers is that urea fertilizer prices have returned to pre-US-Iran conflict levels after spiking from late February through mid-April. This is great news for farmers, though they are not out of the woods, as drought continues to plague some of the nation’s top agricultural belts.

Prices for granular urea in New Orleans have slumped 36% since peaking at $710 per short ton in mid-April. Spot prices are currently $453, back to pre-conflict levels.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts noted that a combination of oversupply and weak demand is pressuring US urea spot prices, which have fallen below those seen in more import-dependent markets such as Brazil and Egypt. The reversal in nitrogen fertilizer prices benefits farmers while also reducing part of the windfall enjoyed by CF Industries and Nutrien.

Shares of CF Industries and Nutrien are both down about 20%, closely tracking urea spot prices.

Urea was among the crop nutrients most affected by the Gulf-area energy shock, with nearly half of global exports originating in the region. There have been concerns about a global food shortage that could emerge later in the year.

Drought concerns still plague top agricultural belts in the US.

Meanwhile, on the otherside of the world:

• UBS Warns El Nino May Intensify Food Inflation Across Asia

One troubling development in food has been the surge in rice prices, with the regional Asian benchmark rising 20% in May, the largest monthly increase since 2008. It is important to closely monitor global food prices.