Armor, Ammunition And Battlefield Adaptation

Goldman Sachs analyst Sam Burgess, who covers European defense companies including Airbus, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, Renk, Rolls-Royce, Safran, Leonardo, Thales, and Dassault Aviation, held a call with retired German Lieutenant General Andreas Marlow to provide clients with greater color on the rapidly evolving modern battlefield and its implications for defense-sector investment decisions.

Marlow said the war in Ukraine has exposed a slew of weaknesses in conventional armies rather than rendering them obsolete. He said future combat will depend on integrated forces combining armor, infantry, artillery, all categories of drones, air defense, electronic warfare, and long-range strike capabilities.

Marlow described how drones and low-cost warfare have created a heavily contested zone stretching 40 to 50 kilometers across the modern battlefield, increasing demand for unmanned systems and counter-drone protection.

We have previously described these kill zones as part of the “world’s AI weapons laboratory,” where suicide drones and experimental unmanned systems, some equipped with fully automated kill chains, are the leading causes of death on the front lines.

Here is Burgess breaking down the conversation for clients:

Land Forces

Have drones reduced the importance of conventional land forces?

• No. General Marlow was unequivocal that conventional land forces remain essential. He said he did not know anyone in uniform who seriously believed that armed forces should dispense with tanks, artillery, infantry or other armoured capabilities.
• The widespread adoption of drones and other unmanned systems is changing warfare, in his view, but it has not eliminated the requirement for conventional military capabilities. Instead, it has exposed areas in which existing forces were insufficiently protected or integrated. The implication is that conventional platforms need to evolve, rather than simply be abandoned.
• He also cautioned against assuming that the current effectiveness of drones will remain unchanged. Their impact has partly reflected the absence of sufficiently mature countermeasures. As counter-UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles) systems, electronic warfare and other defensive technologies improve, the balance between drones and traditional platforms is also likely to evolve.

What is combined-arms warfare and why is it necessary?

• No single system can deliver battlefield success independently in our expert’s view. Infantry, armour, artillery, drones, electronic warfare, air defence and long-range strike must operate as part of an integrated force.
• In this context, he believes the experience of Ukraine does not demonstrate that conventional platforms are fundamentally obsolete. Rather, it shows that conventional forces can be vulnerable when operating without adequate air defence, electronic warfare, counter-UAV protection or situational awareness.
• General Marlow therefore sees emerging technologies as enhancing conventional forces rather than replacing them. UAVs, unmanned ground vehicles, AI, electronic warfare and digitalisation can improve reconnaissance, targeting, protection and the speed of decision-making, but they still need to be integrated into a broader force structure.

How is the battlefield changing?

• Battlefield transparency has increased significantly. Persistent UAV surveillance makes it more difficult for formations to move without being detected, while electronic warfare has become critical to the operation and defence of drones and unmanned ground systems.
• General Marlow described a highly exposed or contested zone that may extend approximately 40 to 50 kilometres. Moving personnel and equipment through this area can be extremely hazardous.
• Unmanned systems are consequently becoming increasingly important in these exposed areas. UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and UGVs (unmanned ground vehicles) can conduct reconnaissance, transport, targeting and other tasks while reducing the direct risk to soldiers. This does not remove the need for manned forces, but it may change where and how personnel are employed.
• Electronic warfare is also becoming important at multiple levels of command. This includes protecting friendly systems, disrupting enemy sensors and communications, and maintaining the ability to operate drones in a heavily contested electromagnetic environment.

What role will AI play?

• General Marlow characterised AI, when integrated into conventional military structures, as the potentially more profound long-term battlefield revolution.
• The importance of AI is not necessarily as a standalone capability. Rather, he believes it lies in its potential to connect sensors, improve targeting, accelerate decision-making and support the deployment of both conventional and unmanned systems. This reinforces the broader theme that emerging technologies are most valuable when incorporated into an integrated force, rather than considered as substitutes for existing capabilities.

German Army force structure

• General Marlow expects the German Army to retain both light and heavy forces while developing a distinct medium-force category.
• Light forces include airborne and other rapidly deployable formations. Their principal advantage is speed and deployability, although they have less protection and firepower than heavier units.
• Heavy forces will continue to centre on tracked, mechanised formations equipped with main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, supported by artillery, engineers and other enabling capabilities required for high-intensity combat. Leopard 2 and Puma form the core of this heavy-force structure.
• Medium forces are being developed as a distinct category between light and heavy formations. Built around protected wheeled vehicles, particularly the Boxer family, these brigades are intended to combine greater deployability than heavy tracked forces with more protection and firepower than light forces. Their wheeled mobility should enable rapid deployment over long distances with less reliance on rail, sea transport and specialised heavy-equipment transporters, allowing them to provide meaningful combat power while heavier formations are still deploying.
• Modernisation will therefore take place across all three categories. General Marlow believes existing force structures will largely be retained, but with additional unmanned systems, electronic warfare, counter-UAV protection and digital capabilities integrated at progressively lower tactical levels. He noted, for example, that UAV support could increasingly be available to platoon-level formations.

Where do Leopard, Puma and Boxer fit?

• Leopard tanks and Puma infantry fighting vehicles are expected to remain at the core of Germany’s heavy forces.
• Boxer is particularly important to the medium-force concept because it combines protection, road mobility and a highly modular design. It can support a range of configurations, including wheeled infantry fighting vehicle, command-and-control, medical, recovery and counter-UAV roles.
• General Marlow expects Boxer to become the standard platform for Germany’s medium forces, while also being used for selected applications within the heavy-force structure. Its modularity should allow new technologies and mission systems to be incorporated without requiring a wholly new vehicle for every role.
• This suggests that the evolution of Germany’s land forces will not be based on a simple choice between traditional armour and new technology. Instead, he believes platforms such as Leopard, Puma and Boxer are likely to provide the protected structure into which unmanned systems, missiles, active protection and digital capabilities are integrated.

What capability gaps remain?

• Germany has an immediate need to improve the equipment, readiness and depth of its land forces following an extended period of underinvestment, according to our expert.
• General Marlow highlighted ammunition stocks, reserves, electronic warfare, counter-UAV protection and unmanned systems as important requirements. Germany also needs sufficient operational depth to sustain a prolonged conflict, rather than structuring the force only for short-duration deployments.
• Personnel and infrastructure are part of the same challenge. In his assessment, the supporting infrastructure is not yet sufficient for the force Germany aspires to build, implying that expansion will require investment beyond frontline equipment alone.

Why must Europe strengthen its land capabilities?

• General Marlow believes that even if the United States remains willing to reinforce Europe, personnel and heavy equipment cannot all cross the Atlantic immediately. Some US capabilities can deploy rapidly, but heavy formations and equipment require more time.
• European NATO members therefore need sufficient combat capability to operate before US reinforcements arrive. In General Marlow’s view, larger European countries will continue to require substantial conventional military forces, with Germany, Poland and France potentially playing particularly important roles in Europe’s immediate land defence.

Artillery and ammunition

Will drones replace 155 mm artillery?

• General Marlow sees drones and artillery as complementary rather than interchangeable.
• Drones can identify and engage individual targets with precision, but tube artillery remains important for sustained fire, volume and operations across a wider range of battlefield conditions. Adverse weather can reduce the effectiveness of drones, whereas artillery may remain operational in those environments.
• Germany is therefore continuing to rebuild its artillery capabilities and establish additional artillery formations. Future forces are likely to require a combination of tube artillery, UAVs, missiles and other long-range strike systems.
• The changing battlefield may alter the balance between these systems and the way in which they are used. However, it does not remove the need for conventional artillery or sustained volumes of fire.

Will demand for 155 mm ammunition remain high?

• Yes. In General Marlow’s view, NATO countries need to rebuild and maintain credible ammunition stockpiles following the depletion and underinvestment of previous years. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the importance of shell availability during a prolonged, high-intensity conflict.
• Although wartime consumption patterns may evolve as drones and other technologies become more prevalent, General Marlow expects demand for 155 mm ammunition to remain significant beyond the current conflict.
• This is not simply a question of reaching a particular inventory level. NATO countries also require the ability to replenish stocks and increase output if another conflict occurs.

Should underutilised production capacity be maintained?

• Yes. General Marlow argued that ammunition capacity should not be assessed solely by reference to peacetime utilisation rates.
• Once inventories have been replenished, some production facilities may appear underutilised. However, maintaining industrial resilience and the ability to scale output rapidly is strategically important. Several companies have already expanded production, but the ability to increase output further needs to be preserved.

Modernising existing platforms

How should existing land platforms evolve?

• Existing platforms should be modernised rather than automatically replaced. The principal requirements include counter-UAV systems, active protection, organic drones, electronic warfare and better situational awareness.
• Protection against drones may also need to extend below the platform level. Individual soldiers and small units could require their own detection, electronic warfare or defensive capabilities as UAVs become more pervasive.
• General Marlow did not identify a generational divide within the German Ministry of Defence or procurement community over traditional vs emerging technologies.
• In his view, UAVs, UGVs, AI and electronic warfare will be incorporated into existing force structures because they improve the effectiveness and survivability of conventional platforms.

Procurement and spending

What has constrained the speed of German defence procurement?

• The current procurement system developed during approximately three decades of military downsizing after 1990. It is now being asked to deliver much larger quantities of equipment within significantly shorter timeframes.
• After many years in which budgets and procurement volumes were declining, the challenge has changed. Funding is becoming more available, but time, personnel and implementation capacity have been constrained.
• German and EU regulatory requirements can also slow the process. The key challenge is to shorten the period between identifying a military requirement, placing an order and delivering usable equipment.
• General Marlow stressed that the system is evolving rather than remaining static. The Ministry of Defence is working to improve procurement, and he expects the process to continue improving.
• He also cautioned against applying every lesson from Ukraine directly to Germany without adaptation. The conflict provides extensive operational evidence, including insights gained through training Ukrainian forces and analysing battlefield developments, but capabilities still need to reflect Germany’s own military requirements and force structure.

Should too much be read into a single year’s defence budget?

• No. Annual budget movements may not accurately represent the longer-term direction of defence spending in General Marlow’s view.
• In some areas, particularly ammunition, industry may simply be unable to absorb the full amount of potential expenditure in a single year. Spending can therefore be constrained by industrial capacity, procurement timelines and the ability to deploy funding, rather than by an absence of political demand.
• Governments may also be reluctant to commit excessive resources in one budget year or to allocate too much funding from a multi year allocation in one year. Preserving some flexibility allows future administrations to respond to changing military requirements and technological developments.

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