Erik Prince: Off Leash update 28 September 2026

Off Leash update 28 September 2026

COMING UP THIS WEEK
•The U.S.-Canada trade war will escalate tomorrow when a new ban on U.S. imports of Canadian booze, dairy products, and motorcycles goes into effect.
•Brazil votes for president and congress on Sunday. The presidential race is tight between octogenarian incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (aka Lula) and Flávio Bolsolaro, the son of wrongly jailed populist ex-president Jair Bolsonaro.
•Bosnia also holds elections for its president and House of Representatives on Sunday. As often in the Balkans, ethnic divisions have polarized the campaign and will drive the outcome.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES
•Aluminum: $3,268/ton
•Antimony (global avg.): $34,715/ton
•Bitcoin: $83,973
•Cobalt: $39,640/ton
•Copper: $14,622/ton
•Ethereum: $2,644
•Gold: $4,158/toz
•Lead: $1,929/ton
•Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.05/MMbtu
•WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $94.45/barrel
•Zinc: $3,900/ton

UK
•UK police arrested five men accused of plotting a terrorist attack at RAF Fairford, an air base that hosts the U.S. Air Force’s 501st Combat Support Wing and serves as a forward deployment base for U.S. B-1 bombers striking Iran.
•While investigators aren’t divulging details about the foiled plot, there’s speculation that the suspects were linked to Iran, which in July accused the UK of complicity in war crimes for letting U.S. bombers use bases like Fairford for its strikes on Iran and explicitly threatened to retaliate against “any party that, in any manner, participates in military aggression against Iran.”
•[Others suggest possible Russian involvement, given similar threats the Kremlin recently issued over the UK’s support for Ukraine.]

IRAN
•Pres. Trump casually brushed off the seven-day ceasefire that Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, proposed last week, but Araghchi remained hopeful that Trump’s initial rejection was just a “first reaction” and would give way to a more receptive official response yet to be delivered through mediators.
•That seems unlikely but not impossible, since U.S. officials have criticized the latest proposal too harshly to easily embrace it later. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz, for example, has said Iran is asking for “everything upfront” while violating the terms of the June MOU the latest proposal is based on.

UKRAINE
•ArcelorMittal halted operations at its Kryvyi Rih steelmaking plant in Ukraine after four Russian strikes killed five plant workers over a span of five weeks.
•The strikes are part of Russia’s ongoing campaign to choke off Ukraine’s war funding by targeting its key export sectors. Steel was 15% of Ukraine’s pre-war exports, and Kryvyi Rih is its biggest steel plant.

SERBIA
•Serbia’s populist president, Aleksandar Vučić, resigned yesterday – but not for the reasons that youth-led protesters had been citing in their calls for him to step down (which include his government’s corruption and lack of accountability for its failings).
•Instead, Vučić is resigning in a bid to lead his Serbian Progressive Party in Oct. 25 elections so he can stay in power as prime minister after his second – and final – presidential term ends in May.

ETHIOPIA
•Ethiopia’s newly allied coalition of rebel groups reportedly captured the Afar town of Erebti from government forces, despite the military’s use of heavy artillery to defend its positions.
•The rebels are now said to be advancing east towards Afdera, Afar, displacing perhaps hundreds of thousands of people along the way.
•Their aim in Afar is to sever Ethiopia’s supply lines from Djibouti, though which around half of the landlocked country’s imported goods – including most of its fuel – flows.
•In a speech on the military’s YouTube channel yesterday, Ethiopia’s army chief alleged that his country’s usual bogeymen – Eritria, Sudan, and Egypt – are backing the rebels: “Neither Shaebia (Eritrea) nor the TPLF can achieve anything alone, even if they are allied, unless they are backed, supported and supplied by Sudan, Egypt and other external powers.”

Off Leash update 28 September 2026

COMING UP THIS WEEK
•The U.S.-Canada trade war will escalate tomorrow when a new ban on U.S. imports of Canadian booze, dairy products, and motorcycles goes into effect.
•Brazil votes for president and congress on Sunday. The presidential…

— ErikDPrince (@realErikDPrince) September 28, 2026