JPM Warns Strike At Major Chilean Copper Mine Could Deliver “Significant” Production Hit

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A new potential bottleneck has emerged in the global copper market as London futures hover just shy of record highs amid persistent scarcity concerns.

Natalia Corfield, JPMorgan’s head of Latin America corporate credit research, wrote in a note earlier today that a strike at Centinela, a major source of Antofagasta’s copper production in Chile, has begun and could soon impact production. 

“Antofagasta is facing its first-ever strike at the Centinela copper mine in Chile, set to begin this morning after mandatory mediation between the company and the Minera Esperanza and Distrito Centinela unions failed to produce an agreement,” Corfield wrote in the note.

She continued:

The unions, representing more than 700 workers, say the dispute centers on pay and benefit disparities between employees doing identical jobs but belonging to different unions, and they accuse Antofagasta of rejecting a proposed fix for these gaps without offering an alternative solution. 

Should no last-minute deal be reached and the strike persist, the impact on production and results could be significant, as Centinela produced 240,400 metric tons of copper in 2025, representing more than 35% of Antofagasta’s total production, and a prolonged stoppage could also delay the timing of the mine’s concentrator expansion. 

That said, Antofagasta has historically been successful in resolving potential work stoppages before they escalate, as seen in 2020 when initial contract rejections and a government mediation extension ultimately led to a deal without an actual strike.

Separately, Bloomberg cited the two unions behind the labor action that warned the Centinela could begin reducing copper production within about two weeks if the walkout continues.

London copper futures trade around $14,475 a ton and just shy of record highs.

Former Goldman Sachs commodities chief Jeff Currie said in August: “Get long and buckle up.”

Currie said the convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement and policy intervention is creating conditions for a sustained repricing of scarce resources.

Read:

• The Copper Chart Causing Alarm

Another chart of concern:

Deutsche Bank’s head of metals research, Daniel Ghali, added to the urgency last month, warning that global copper inventories have fallen to “unprecedented lows” and blaming some of that on US and Chinese stockpiling, which is squeezing supplies elsewhere. Ghali also noted that the copper rally in London could see another 50% run to $22,050 a ton by 2Q27 (read the report).