For most, Colombia is somewhere in the back of the minds of many as a threat to the US. A lot went on from the 60s forward and most famously in the 80s when the FARC jumped all in on the coca game. But in 2017 the world’s oldest ongoing civil war appeared to have come to an end with a formal peace treaty being signed by the Colombian government and the communist FARC guerrillas.

That said, in several conversations I’ve had with people either from the region or who’ve worked there, any shot at peace will be short lived, especially taking into account the political climate of neighboring Venezuela. The FARC itself was in bad shape logistics-wise, with their aging AKMs and Canadian C7s (a Colt-licensed M16A2 with a collapsible stock) showing signs of severe outer wear; there’s no doubt the barrels are shot out. In short…in order to rearm, you first appear to disarm. Not a problem, since their neighbors are now cranking out more AK-103s in a year than they have people in their Army.

And although the FARC agreed to lay down their arms, their rival the ELN is waiting in the wings for both willing recruits and a fresh batch of weapons to crank up their fight against what they claim is an American puppet government in Colombia, nevermind the longtime support the ELN and FARC have enjoyed from Russia by way of Venezuela. That aside, it appears they’re ready to pick up the slack. Check out this recent clip by way of Vice:

There’s definitely cracks in the foundations of peace between the Colombian government and the Communist revolutionaries. And what I would expect is that the next step will be a ramping up of attacks with Venezuela’s backdoor support. With that, most dangerous for the US, is that Venezuelan forces will be getting combat experience that they lack while embedded with the guerrillas. Experience they’ll be using to influence a large number of direct action cells later on down the road, maybe even showing up on our doorstep. It would be the war Russia would want to start to destabilize the already unstable region.

In fact, I’d count on it.