Three days before the 16th, Fact-checking of the war
On February 5, Bloomberg published an article about the beginning of the invasion of Russian troops in Ukraine, which after some time was removed with an apology. On Friday, February 11, interpreting the statements of Biden’s national security adviser Jacob Sullivan, Bloomberg assumed with a high degree of certainty that the attack would begin before the end of the Beijing Olympics (the official closing ceremony will take place on February 20). By the evening of the same day, the President of the United States had made the matter clear. According to Politico , at a video conference with the leaders of the European Union and NATO, he said that the invasion would take place next Wednesday, February 16.
The event is unprecedented. Never in the military history of mankind (at least for the last hundred years) did the leader of any state officially announce the start of a large-scale war by another state with an accuracy of up to a day. Europeans, however, were skeptical about such accuracy.
In any case, this message is the peak of the military-political crisis around Ukraine, which accompanies negotiations on security in Europe.
Waiting for death is often harder than dying. The start date of the war is constantly being pushed back. At first it was believed that she would follow the New Year’s exercises in connection with the call-up of reservists (they were already celebrating the holiday at home). Later, the invasion was linked to successive exercises organized by the Russian General Staff in the Western and Southern districts as part of efforts to maintain military-political tension during the negotiations. Then the capture of Kiev began to be pushed back to the middle or end of January, to the first half of February. All this alarmism gave rise to normal human skepticism.
And on the day of the “declaration of war” CNN first wrote about what is now called the “clash with the press” (although the material as a whole is not devoted to this). The White House, the State Department, and the military were charged: “The disclosures were mostly in the form of statements from agency representatives, and officials provided little evidence—essentially, they asked reporters to report stories without confirmation.
During periods of global crises, the consolidation of the press on a patriotic basis is the norm. The editors do not double-check the statements of sources that determine the state’s foreign policy line. And sometimes they refuse to double-check and even fact-checking. Journalists from warring countries and regions go through the most difficult tests.
Journalists should pay serious attention to the words of the former Director of National Intelligence (government official) James Clapper quoted by CNN: “The new doctrine is the potential for using intelligence as a weapon of information operations.” Thus, intelligence is an active participant in the current government campaign, in which the principles of military propaganda come through.
Significant successes in the campaign. NATO and friendly governments are acting in concert: arms supplies to Kiev have begun, many countries have advised citizens to urgently leave Ukraine due to the inevitable invasion, flights are canceled, four closest allies are evacuating some diplomats at the direct call of the United States. The image of Russia as a ruthless aggressor, an almost irresponsible pariah among civilized countries, has been created and will stick with it for a long time.
The vast majority of official and anonymous reports about the crisis around Ukraine, which received a huge audience, were based on information from the US intelligence community.
They are completely different from the traditional sharp, but not in essence (often without content at all) statements of our Foreign Ministry. And yet, experts and the press must evaluate them critically – due to the special role of intelligence in information special operations, which James Clapper ingenuously stated.
At the same time, the notional Kremlin took a different path. He simply moves troops, organized in the Western and Southern districts a long series (from the end of September on the website of the Ministry of Defense they can be considered dozens) of maneuvers that are not formally connected with a single operational plan, which partners in the West consider the preparation of an invasion strike force. On February 11, for example, the Black Sea Fleet began another exercise blocking part of the Black and Azov Seas.
And the Kremlin does not comment on Western accusations in any way: its method of pressure is much more expensive, but no less effective. At least for now, Western-style accusations from Russian officials can be counted on the fingers of one hand. It makes no sense to check the endless statements in the style of “themselves like that” from Zakharova. By default, our main statement is three points of demands for NATO in the style of an ultimatum.
What should a researcher do who does not want to drift in the direction indicated by political convictions and ideology? What about someone who does not have the means of verification: agents in opposing camps, electronic intelligence, satellite constellation of optical and radar control, a staff of sophisticated analysts? I propose to proceed from well-known published facts recognized by the expert community. We discussed them with experts from the military environment. All unprovable statements and versions will have to be recalculated and excluded from consideration.
In order.
The most important input. In all the statements that got into the media, the US government and its allies talk about the plan that has been spread since November for the Russian army to seize two-thirds of Ukraine, with the occupation of Kiev, landing in Odessa, and the exit of the attacking group to the right bank of the Dnieper from the territory of Belarus. During a video conference with the leaders of the European Union and NATO, Biden confirmed that this is the main forecast. Let’s check if this is possible.
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GUNS N GEAR
The link doesn’t work to the full article. Maybe it already vanished?
Might have already.
It’s fixed now. This is great perspective!
The trash running the west are like a schoolboy who would sooner burn down the school than take a sure fail test.
The rest is here:
“Weather
Starting position: an indispensable condition for the supposedly upcoming offensive is frozen ground. This is the only way armored vehicles can move. Intelligence has been insisting on this since November, the very assertion formed the basis for determining the timing of the invasion.
Photo: Wolfgang Schwan / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
It is not known why February was considered the coldest month in Ukraine, but in a report to Biden on February 11, this condition is confirmed. If in December this could still be associated with real climatic conditions, then last Friday it was no longer possible.
The air temperature since February 10 in Kharkov, Kiev and Debaltseve is from 2 to 6 degrees. In Odessa, where a major landing operation was predicted, it is from 7 to 10 degrees above zero.
Forecast for two weeks (science is not yet able to build reliable predictions for a longer period) is similar. The intelligence community’s claims directly contradict reality.
Capture of Kiev
The forecast is included in the official report to the president on February 7. Starting position: Kiev will be taken in two days from the beginning of the invasion. “Officers told CNN on Saturday that (…) the city could fall within 48 hours of a large-scale ground and air invasion.” The troops that arrived for the exercises “Allied Resolve – 2022” in Belarus are indicated as an attacking group.
The media reported that 60,000 fighters had been gathered. In reality, half of them are Belarusian military personnel. Belarus raised virtually all of its armed forces to the gun.
In a conversation with Macron, Putin said that at the end of the exercises, 30,000 would return to Russia (thanks to this, we can speculate how many of them arrived from Siberia and the Far East). Let’s say that Putin called the wrong number. Let’s ignore the fact that, according to the same US intelligence, most of these troops operate on the border with Poland and Lithuania, in the Grodno and Brest regions. But
in any case, the Belarusian army will not cross the borders of Ukraine.
So the numbers are incorrect.
The very assertion that the huge capital will be captured in just a couple of days, our sources call disinformation. They reject the very possibility of capturing Kiev with the forces and means currently available. Among our experts there are people who planned operations, the number of which is comparable to the declared 60,000 group.
These are opinions, they do not refute someone else’s assumption directly. Nevertheless, I consider it useful for everyone who is interested to get acquainted with what it means to capture a much smaller city, fighting in dense urban areas and in complete encirclement, using the example of the Maikop brigade on New Year’s Eve 1995.
Donated blood
On January 29, Reuters broadcast a widely publicized message about increased blood donation to troops (without specifying which military region). The supply of blood and other medical supplies to hospitals was seen as a key indicator of Moscow’s military readiness. This, based on a leak from the Pentagon, was reported by three unnamed US officials. This information was also included in the report to the president.
Hospitals in the zone of the alleged offensive have so far been built only in the course of exercises, literally by a few. The real losses of the RF Armed Forces killed by the same report are estimated at least 10 thousand. That is, the wounded cannot be less than 30 thousand. Satellite photographs of a couple of field hospitals with 500 beds do not look very convincing with such numbers.
But this is not an essential consideration. Let’s ignore these calculations. The main fact in the quote: “Three American officials who spoke about the blood supply refused to specifically say when the United States discovered their movement … However, two of them said that it was during the last weeks .”
But according to the rules of military medicine, blood for transfusion to the wounded has a shelf life of 30 days, that is, a little more than four weeks.
For another 15 days, it is considered limited fit, at which time it is already necessary to think about how to process it. At the moment, all the blood that US intelligence reported to Biden should already be unusable or on the verge of shelf life.
Stocks of such a valuable resource are not created long before the start of the fighting. They are formed as close as possible to the day of the offensive. Why did the lieutenant colonel of the medical service, a participant in all the military operations of recent years, tell me about this as an axiom, but the American president was not told about such a detail? I am ready to admit that the American army has completely different periods of storage and use, but we are talking about the Russian army.
In addition, it is not known where this blood came from (let me remind you that there are simply no such number of beds along the border with Ukraine). If institutions like the hospital them. Burdenko, you need to find out how often and in what volumes they renew stocks. It is possible that this is a planned event.
Photo: Wolfgang Schwan / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
An interesting statement on this subject by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar: “This information is not true. Such “news” is an element of information-psychological warfare. The purpose of such information is to sow panic and fear in our society.”
radio interception
On February 7, there were reports of fresh radio interceptions of high-ranking Russian military conversations. Anonymous sources cited information from their intelligence sources. In these conversations, Russian officials allegedly expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that their plans were revealed and made public by Western countries.
The logic is this: we showed you the plan of attack three months ago, but today the Russian generals complain that we have declassified it. Thus, the “truth” of the plan, which became the core of a powerful propaganda campaign (it has already surpassed the scale and duration of the campaign during the preparation of the US army invasion of Iraq), is confirmed.
In fact, the plan of attack and dismemberment of Ukraine, together with the map, were drawn up by the head of the military intelligence department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) Budanov on the eve of an interview with the American newspaper Military Times back in the fall. American intelligence officers and officials did not dispute the original source. After that, he did not undergo any major changes, wandering from newspaper to newspaper and from report to report.
But let’s assume that Ukrainian military intelligence actually stole a top-secret war plan. We have to answer the question: why are our bosses indignant after three months? What is the point of fulfilling the plan, exposed to the whole wide world three months ago?
In a war, preempt the enemy by a week – win the battle.
During the current quarter, not a single unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine went to the places of strikes diligently indicated on the map.
Who will reflect the landing in Odessa? “Russia, we kindly ask you to hell!” – said the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny on the website of the Ministry of Defense. And President Zelenskiy, whose administration is scheduled to flee the capital next Wednesday, did not ask them what troops were sent to defend defenseless Kiev.
Before us is some kind of war of twos. Some lost their plan, others did not bother to build a defense in three months (all worthy Ukrainian units are still concentrated on the line of contact with the 1st and 2nd army corps of the “DPR” – “LPR”). Suppose all this is nothing more than reasoning. But the complete absence of even signs of a set of measures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in response to the imminent Russian offensive, which is three days away, is an irrefutable fact!
Unprovable and unverifiable information
In January, the US said it had credible information indicating that Russia had trained a special forces team to conduct a separate false-flag operation in the Donbass. We are talking about the execution of the “DPR” military by Russian soldiers dressed in Ukrainian uniforms. And last week, agencies said the US had intelligence about preparing a video of a staged UAF attack as a pretext for starting a war .
Before the New Year, Minister Shoigu tried to portray something similar when he accused an American PMC in the same region of preparing a provocation with chemicals. Moreover, American myths came from anonymous spies, and then the head of the Moscow Region put his authority on the table. But it did not work out very well – Moscow does not control the world information space.
All such statements cannot be proven, verified and taken seriously. However, they may well hide a real fact of a completely different kind. When creating a plan of measures to intimidate the world, our General Staff could well have foreseen a game in the process of confrontation between electronic intelligence equipment.
Therefore, complaints by Russian generals about the disruption of war plans over the phone, deliberate leaks about recording provocative videos and murderers dressed in Ukrainian uniforms in Donetsk could be part of a disinformation plan. For what? When such messages become part of a report to the President of the United States, they make an impression. It’s part of the intimidation system. But this is just an educated guess from our sources.
They are not there, but everything is there!
Deliveries of modern Russian weapons to Donbass may become a new stage in the escalation
satellite imagery
It is precisely the images from space that are in decisive contradiction with the announced date of the attack. If there are three days left, then they should show the reserves of material and technical means and combat infrastructure created for such a grandiose offensive right on the border or very close by. Medical posts, for example, are located behind the second echelon of the regiment at a distance of 6–8 km.
During the fighting in Donbass 2014–15. “Rebels” on other days spent a carload of ammunition per day. The total consumption of materiel during the offensive of the regiment with the use of conventional weapons will be 400 tons per day. It is clear that for the armada they need many times more. And this is not yet visible.
But the most important thing is fuel. The fuel consumption of a motorized infantry regiment per day is estimated at no less than 120 tons. Not only should the satellites show the troops 20 km from the border in their original position, there should be large numbers of tankers in the pictures. Not donated blood in unverifiable intelligence reports
and stocks of gasoline and diesel fuel on real images indicate readiness. Watch out for the fuel trucks!
Outcome
If you open the Ukrainian and European media of 2016-18, then the number of Russian troops along the borders of Ukraine there is indicated by exactly the same numbers – 80-100 thousand people. Why didn’t this cause a crisis for six years? I think this is all a man-made media disaster provoked by the Kremlin: a wave of exercises, troop movements and silent silhouettes of Iskanders on satellite images – marked the beginning of a risky game.
And the Biden administration has risen to the challenge in other ways. There is a war of nerves. In our country, too, there are its victims, the psyche began to take over the entire perimeter. Many participants in talk shows on federal channels were seized by the mood described by Zhvanetsky in the story of the funeral in Odessa: “Why are you fussing with him? Let’s give it to the head and win back ours, burn it with fire!
But behind the enthusiastic hysteria, confusion is now visible. Simultaneously with the announcement of the date for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Expert magazine published a wise plan to steal American patents as an essential element of national policy that will save our economy from sanctions. A conservative foreign policy expert whom I introduced to this madness responded bitterly: “There are different tools.
But if they introduce “unprecedented sanctions”, then what else to be afraid of? You can even print dollars, even sell MANPADS to terrorists.”
This is how the Kremlin’s risky game on the borders with Poland and Ukraine echoed in the confused minds close to the Izborsk and Valdai clubs.
The Kremlin continues its expensive campaign of endless menacing maneuvers. The West diligently draws fangs and horns for Putin in the world press, predicting the imminent end of the world. The Ukrainian government is facing the threat of a food panic and an imbalance in the market for essential goods, trying to reassure citizens as much as possible. International insurers intend to withdraw guarantees for flights over Ukraine from February 14 . This means that air travel in the country may come to a complete halt.
But the main danger to the world still lies on the line of contact in the Donets Basin. The resumption and rapid escalation of hostilities in the zone of responsibility of a battalion or regiment somewhere near the conditional Maryinka is quite possible. It is much easier to start, control and, in order to avoid draconian retaliatory measures, present it as an intra-Ukrainian conflict. If the Kremlin decides it hasn’t given enough fear to its negotiating partners, one phone call is all it takes.
updated February 15, 17:00 Moscow time
Beyond Russia’s western border, tensions are still rising. In Kiev, from Monday, registration for self-defense units has been going on. The National Guard moved to the outskirts of the city. In the morning, the British tabloid Sun reported the exact hour of the beginning of the invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine (immediately from all sides): “RAID AT DAWN. Russia is going to invade Ukraine tomorrow at 1am with a massive missile strike and 200,000 troops, US intelligence says.”
Nearby is an upbeat note: “I’ve spent over £100k on my ass, I want to be the biggest in the world, but I struggle to date because men are afraid of me.”
I would like to wish the cheerful British woman happiness, and all Ukrainians and Russians only such problems as she has. I am also waiting for three in the morning in London, although in general the situation around Ukraine is better today than on Saturday.
On Monday, February 14, all central channels showed Putin’s meeting with Shoigu, which was preceded by a whole series of negotiations with anxious European leaders and American officials. The Minister of Defense said that large-scale exercises are underway, in all districts and water areas of the fleets, but soon a significant part of them will end and our military will return to their places of permanent deployment. Our propaganda machine presented this as top news.
Indeed, many of the exercises at the end of last year, which agitated Ukraine and the West, ended happily in this way. They cost a lot and don’t last long. Teachings longer than two weeks are extremely rare. However, their frequency in the Western and Southern districts since the start of negotiations on the fate of European security is unprecedented.
Therefore, the main question is: what will replace the Belarusian exercises when 30,000 of our compatriots in uniform return beyond the Urals? Will Putin’s team consider that intermediate goals have been achieved? Political levers are used at the same time. The military situation is defusing, the ruble is strengthening, but the State Duma deputies are playing a show, composing a message to the president about the need to recognize the “DNR” and “LNR”. All this is extremely similar to a controlled process: either they press the gas, or they press the brake. And yet there was a light. Probably, something moved in the negotiations.”
I still had it open on a tab. ;)
Legend :) Thanks for this. I don’t mind approving this since it seems to be taken down elsewhere. If anyone finds another link, please comment with it.
Not completely discounting this article although it is from a Russian news agency. I’d take it with as much of a grain of salt as I do things from the US media. That said, there’s a little truth in all reporting.
Michael Kofman, ELINTnews and RALee have been doing a pretty decent job of outlining potential indicators, strategy, etc. since Fall.
https://mobile.twitter.com/KofmanMichael
https://mobile.twitter.com/elintnews
https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85
This emphasis was further explained yesterday:
‘Smart Move by Zelensky, Puts Date on U.S. Claim of Russian Invasion, State Dept Begins Embassy Evacuations in Ukraine’
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/02/14/smart-move-by-zelensky-puts-date-on-u-s-claim-of-russian-invasion-state-dept-begins-embassy-evacuations-in-ukraine/
“Next week the Biden team will be on television telling stories about how their strategic geopolitical excellence averted a thermonuclear war that was never coming in the first place. Believe me, tens of millions of Americans will fall for it, because the reality of what took place is just too grand in scale, too bizarre, to fathom.”
Heck, their “geopolitical excellence” is showing up already.
The link worked for me 10 minutes ago.
Yeah it seems to have come back up. It wasn’t working this morning.