Growing Number Of Economists Anticipate Recession Will Hit By Middle Of Next Year: Survey

An overwhelming number of economists think a recession will hit the United States by the middle of next year, according to a survey by The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) published on Monday.

The survey (pdf) was conducted between Aug. 1 and Aug. 9 among 198 members of NABE.

It found that 72 percent of economists polled expect a recession to begin by the middle of next year, including 19 percent of those who said the United States is already in a recession, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

The NBER defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”

The standard definition of a recession is also based on two consecutive quarters of declining gross national product, as has been seen in the United States.

Nine percent of economists polled say the recession will start in the third quarter of this year and another 16 percent say it will begin in the fourth quarter.

More than one-quarter of respondents (28 percent) expect a recession to begin in the first half of 2023, split between 22 percent who see the recession hitting in the first quarter and six percent who forecast it will hit in the second quarter.

Another 20 percent of respondents do not expect a recession to begin before the second half of 2023.

Elsewhere, 73 percent of respondents said they are “not very confident” or “not at all confident” that the Federal Reserve will be able to bring inflation down to its 2 percent goal within the next two years without prompting a recession. Among them, 51 percent said they are not at all confident the Fed can achieve a soft landing, and 21 percent said they are not at all confident.

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5 Comments

cks August 24, 2022 at 09:46

Already there… I’m thinking they only surveyed economists that follow the WH talking points.
RP August 24, 2022 at 10:35

Its already here.
Dan August 24, 2022 at 17:29

We are already in a “recession”. Have been for a least a year. What’s coming is a full scale Depression. One that will make the 1930s look like a tea party.
- RP August 25, 2022 at 08:41
  
  Depression is likely the goal of the elites.
Sand Sock August 25, 2022 at 07:52

i got to say this is a reprieve compared to the disaster of 2016 to 2020. it may of slowed a little recently, but those years were horrid around here.