Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

(Bloomberg) — A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration.

But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.

The model is more certain of a recession than other forecasts. A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier.

By NC ScoutPublished On: October 18, 2022Categories: Uncategorized6 Comments

About the Author: NC Scout

NC Scout is the nom de guerre of a former Infantry Scout and Sergeant in one of the Army’s best Reconnaissance Units. He has combat tours in both Iraq and Afghanistan. He teaches a series of courses focusing on small unit skills rarely if ever taught anywhere else in the prepping and survival field, including his RTO Course which focuses on small unit communications. In his free time he is an avid hunter, bushcrafter, writer, long range shooter, prepper, amateur radio operator and Libertarian activist. He can be contacted at [email protected] or via his blog at brushbeater.wordpress.com .

6 Comments

Ghostmann October 18, 2022 at 10:18

Heh heh heh the tip of the iceberg. We’re already in a recession. What they aren’t saying is that a currency collapse is on the table. KSA could end it tomorrow in one shot by demanding only Yuan or Rubles for oil. Now that they are part of BRICS, they got the muscle to back them up if they choose to do so.
- wwes October 18, 2022 at 10:43
  
  This story deserves more attention than most will give it, and I would guess the majority of folks outside of the AP audience will overlook it completely. They don’t have any clue just how bad the collapse of the USD will be, and they won’t even be able to burn piles of cash for heat a-la Weimar Germany since most folks use plastic to pay for everything.
MikeJ October 18, 2022 at 11:39

Yes we are already there, and looking at a big “D” depression.”Sundance” at the Conservative Treehouse has a good analysis of the reasons behind it.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/10/18/the-great-economic-pretending-has-become-absurd-wsj-economists-ignore-current-reality-and-ponder-possibility-of-recession-in-2023/
CPL Antero Rokka October 18, 2022 at 12:21

We all know the score men–“Home Team” trails, it’s the bottom of the 9th, two outs, full count at bat, and nobody on bases.

See to you and yours before you hit the showers.

Ain’t nobody coming to save you.

Wait until the green paper “funny-money” is useless (still, it can be used for shyte-tickets.) Then–the fun will really explode. Think level 3+ body armor or better, massive ammo supply, NODs, food, water, heating capability–to use up your fiat paper and get something NOW.
Leaving The Boat Is Fun October 18, 2022 at 13:06

Brandon’s CPUSA/CCP handlers don’t care as they won’t be bothered by it.
The comrades always hate the middle class because that is where the counter revolutions come from.
Also when the EBT cards don’t even get a small plastic bag of groceries, they will blame YT.
Marxists aren’t economic illiterates, they are out to burn it all down by any means necessary.
SRK Addict October 18, 2022 at 16:50

This stuff is depressing. I think the Great Reset might not go the way the Global Cabal wants it to. My only real concern is getting my girls home in one piece if it happens quickly. Long live the fighters!