Dr. Joseph Alton: The Kraken Variant

originally posted on Doom and Bloom

COVID-19 continues to develop new forms of the Omicron strain, which is the predominant form of the virus circulating today. Much more contagious than the original novel coronavirus found in Wuhan, China in late 2019, the omicron strain has continued to mutate; there are now more than 650 subvariants, and that doesn’t include the previous Greek-letter versions like Alpha, Gamma, Delta, and their subtypes.

(Aside: The term “omicron,” was given to the strain purposefully even though the next assignable letter in the Greek alphabet was actually “Xi.” Given the similarity to the name of the Chinese head of state, scientists skipped to the letter after that, “omicron,” to avoid a diplomatic incident.)

Certain subvariants that are concerning are now being given names from Greek lore. The current mutation, XBB1.5, that is showing growth in the United States is being called the “Kraken” variant, after the mythological sea monster.

The Kraken variant is thought by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be the most transmissible version yet, with possible reproductive (R-Nought) numbers above 18.  A disease’s R-Nought is the number of cases that will occur in a vulnerable population if an infected person is placed in the middle of it.  Measles’ R-nought is about 18, which means that an infected individual will give the disease to an average of 18 susceptible people. The Kraken variant is apparently even more contagious.

Actually, there hasn’t been an official R-nought given to XBB1.5 as far as I know, but it is contagious enough to displace previous high-level contagious subvariants like BA-5 (R-Nought of 18.5) and BQ1.1, meaning that it must have a higher number. This would make it the most contagious virus ever known. Dr. John Sader, a physician with a genetics background, emphasizes, however, that theoretical R-Nought isn’t necessarily what happens in the real world.

Having said that, he was alarmed when the scientific community stopped using R-Noughts as a statistic. He said: “On the world scientific stage, there was a decision last week to stop speaking about R-Noughts’s!!!! I hope it’s because Real World R-Noughts are difficult to follow and not because it is a politically-motivated decision.”

In any case, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes that the very contagious XBB1.5 made up 27 percent of US cases for the week ending on January 7^th, a major increase from the month before. More than 70 percent of cases in the Northeast are now believed to be the Kraken variant.

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