The Failing Ukraine Counteroffensive & The Peace That Could Have Been

It’s safe to say that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive was currently making significant gains, everyone would know about it. Not only would mainstream media headlines feature celebratory daily news of any big gains on the ground, but it would not be the case that the question of how Ukraine is fairing would actually be slipping from the headlines (as it is now), no longer a prime focus in public discourse.

David Sachs has observed of the current state of the counteroffensive that, “With each passing day, it’s becoming clear that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing to achieve any of its originally stated objectives.” At the same time escalation between Russia and NATO grows by the day, seemingly with no off-ramp, now also with tactical nukes stationed in Belarus.

He points out, “Recall: the Biden administration’s bet was that the counteroffensive would roll back Russian territorial gains, cut the land bridge to Crimea, and force Russia to the negotiating table. That is almost certainly not going to happen. On the contrary, a stalemate is more likely, or even that Russia will take more territory and win the war, as Mearsheimer has predicted.”

“What are Biden’s options now?” Sachs asks. He describes the very dangerous corner that Washington and its allies have painted themselves into in the below as follows [emphasis ZH]…

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Either escalate or admit defeat. In preparation for NATO’s Vilnius Summit, Blinken has been floating a proposal to give “Israel status” to Ukraine. This means multi-year security guarantees including weapons, ammunition and money that would continue even if Biden loses the next election.

This is not what the American people signed up for. Many Americans supported the $100+ billion in appropriations for Ukraine believing it was a one-time deal to reverse Russian territorial gains. If they had been told that it was the basis for an annual appropriation in a new Forever War, they would have preferred an alternative, especially if they had known that one was available.

The Peace That Could Have Been

New evidence is emerging that a peace deal was achievable at the beginning of the war. At a recent meeting with the African delegation, Putin showed the draft of an outline or preliminary agreement signed by the Ukrainian delegation at Istanbul in April 2022. It provided that Russia would pull back to pre-war lines if Ukraine would agree not to join NATO (but Ukraine could receive security guarantees from the West). This document has not been publicly released yet, but no one seriously contests that it exists.

The only dispute is over what happened subsequently; Ukraine (via reporting in Reuters) contends the deal fell apart. However, the availability of a deal based on Ukrainian Neutrality is consistent with previous comments from Naftali Bennett, who said a deal was attainable but rejected by the West.

Why would the West do this? Ukrainska Pravda (UP), a pro-Ukraine publication, reported in May 2022: “As soon as the Ukrainian negotiators and Abramovich/Medinsky [the Russian negotiators], following the outcome of Istanbul, had agreed on the structure of a future possible agreement in general terms, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson appeared in Kyiv almost without warning.”

Johnson brought two simple messages to Kyiv. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not. We can sign (an agreement) with you (Ukraine), but not with him. Anyway, he will screw everyone over”, is how one of Zelenskyy’s close associates summed up the essence of Johnson’s visit.

Johnson (who must have been speaking not just for himself but for the Western alliance) wanted to pressure Putin, not make peace, and promised new weapons systems if Ukraine would keep fighting. At the time of UP’s article, Ukraine appeared to be doing well, so UP portrayed Zelensky’s decision to accept Johnson’s offer as a smart gamble. Now, in hindsight, it looks like a disaster.

Afghanistan Redux? 

I know some of you may find it hard to believe that the realities on the ground are so at odds with the mainstream media’s coverage. But it’s worth recalling that the American public was assured for two decades that we were winning in Afghanistan. All of that reporting was revealed as a pack of lies when the Afghan army that we were supposedly “standing up” collapsed within a matter of weeks.

At that point, the media stopped reporting on Afghanistan, just like it had stopped reporting on Iraq, instead of holding anyone accountable. Unfortunately, it looks like we’re headed for a similar kind of outcome in Ukraine.

The only question is when, and how long Biden will be able to perpetuate a proxy war of choice that could have easily been avoided.