US fears Russia preparing to put nuclear weapons in space

Original article here.

Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH) sparked national concern on Wednesday when he released an urgent notice warning of a “serious national security threat.” Members of Congress are now being briefed on the matter. Multiple sources tell me that CNN’s original reporting on the threat being Russia-related is accurate. Two sources further tell me that this is a space-based nuclear weapons threat.

Top line: It appears that Russia is in the process of deploying (via multiple recent satellite launches), or is preparing to deploy, an anti-satellite-based nuclear weapons system into space. Concerns have escalated amid Russian military-related satellite launches, the most recent of which occurred last week.

My sources say that this is a Russian anti-satellite weapons capability designed to destroy or degrade U.S. and allied satellite constellations. Radiation produced by a nuclear explosion would likely cause widespread disruption to these constellations. As Lt. Col. Robert Vincent noted in 2022, “Most satellites with a line of sight to the nuclear detonation will be destroyed from the resulting x-rays. Military space capabilities for command and control along with reconnaissance assets may still function for a period following the detonation, but the economic impact of degraded informational space products will be immediate.”

Russian physicists have openly theorized plans to develop a space-based nuclear warhead system that would vaporize a second target-facing element to create a plasma wave that strikes targets in space at range. This would fit with Russia’s publicly known focus in recent years to deploy satellites variously designed to destroy other satellites. The intent is to blind an adversary’s command and control apparatus, communications, and weapons targeting capabilities in war.

Vladimir Putin has placed significant emphasis on the development of new strategic weapons. The Russian FSB domestic security service has also greatly increased its supervision of scientists working on these weapons systems. This focus speaks to Russia’s long-standing interest in exploiting the potential utility of space-based nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union previously developed a “Fractional Orbit Bombardment System” designed to deliver nuclear warheads in a surprise attack on Washington, prospectively eliminating the U.S. presidential line of succession and associated nuclear command and control. There are, however, various technical complexities and military weaknesses to this FOBS approach. Regardless, the deployment of nuclear weapons in space would constitute an unequivocal violation of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, to which both the United States and Russia are parties. At a minimum, this will increase already serious U.S.-Russian tensions.

Again, the key here is the U.S. nuclear command and control chain. That chain relies heavily on satellites, and both Soviet and contemporary Russian war planning centers heavily on high-risk decapitation strikes against an adversary’s leadership in advance of follow-on military operations.

The U.S. will now have to decide, alongside allies, how to respond to Russia’s actions. The options might include new sanctions, the deployment of similar weapons into space as a means of countering Russia’s threat, or even the destruction of Russia’s weapons.

Regardless, this is clearly a major new national security challenge for a Biden administration already facing many such challenges.