I’ve been watching this outbreak over the last month plus, and while a great deal remains unclear, the following seems clear:

1) This virus is HIGHLY infectious;

2) This virus is potentially lethal, and not just to those with existing health issues, but to everyone;

3) The Chinese Communist Party agrees with 1 and 2 above, and have quarantined OVER 400 million people in a desperate (and futile) attempt to reduce the spread of this epidemic.

4) It IS infectious before symptoms are shown, and there are known cases of superspreaders (R0 >10);

5) It takes an extended period to resolve (>~4 wks) once symptoms show;

6) the most severe cases become evident after 1-2 weeks;

7) Per published literature, the known rate of false negatives in PCR testing is HIGH; early in the disease progression, with low viral loads and no symptoms combined with poor test sampling, it can be hard to detect this bug. Comparing the Chinese reports of reported dead vs. reported recovered, there are as of the 10th about three to four times as many recovered as dead; that is a case fatality rate of 20% to 25% if the Chinese Communists can be believed. They cannot, however, for two reasons: – the truth is not in them; the Chinese lie about everything, and especially about disease outbreaks; – even if they were to try to tell the truth, it is now impossible for the Chinese Communists to known how many cases there are or how many have died from this virus. They are overwhelmed. Since we cannot believe what they say, we must look at what they are DOING.

As noted in 3) above, the Central Committee has locked down about a third of their ENTIRE population (over 400 million people) in an effort to limit the spread of this disease. That will cause SIGNIFICANT economic impacts in a nation trembling on the edge of severe economic problems already. These actions argue powerfully that the Central Committee in China believes that this disease is a very significant problem, threatening their control of China. As regards the disease itself, it would seem likely based on anecdotal reports that there are some number of subclinical cases not needing hospitalization, and thus that the CFR is lower than the data above suggest, but there is no way to know what the real R0 or the real CFR actually is.

The US response has prevented widespread infection SO FAR here in the US, but the CDC has admitted that the US strategy is to SLOW, not prevent, the start of this coronavirus epidemic here. Given that a significant number of cases have been detected OUTSIDE China, and given that there is still travel between these countries and the US, the prudent assumption would be that this epidemic will be seen here eventually. Keep in mind the long latency period between infection and symptoms, AND the long period between symptoms and hospitalization where needed. It took the doctor who died recently almost 2 months from initial exposure to expire from this disease. So far, the *known* number of cases here is low. Keep in mind that this epidemic started with just a few cases in China, a bit over two months ago. Again, the prudent assumption would be that this epidemic will be seen here in the US.

While it is more difficult to assemble proper prep materials at this point, (Many of which are made in China!) better late than never. Every day you wait is another day wasted. On that note, prepare for shortages of goods made overseas. The secondary effects of this pandemic cannot be fully predicted, but there are a great many medications, industrial parts, and other essentials made in China. Whether or not the epidemic gets to the US, the economic effects are already being felt, and will likely be as severe on the economic front here in the US as the epidemic is in China. Medical and secondary effects both will be worst in large population centers. You do not want to be in a large metropolitan area if this does go pandemic here in these presently united States, and it will be difficult to get out once the pandemic has gotten started here. Quarantine orders may be placed, too late to do any good, but adequate to ensure that large numbers of people will be confined to areas with less than 48 hours of food. A prudent person will give serious thought to all of the above, and act.

With regard to all who seek the Light,

Historian

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