The Strategic Consequences of Reputation by Mike VonSteuben
Originally posted on Mike VonSteuben’s blog.
At this point, everyone is aware of the fact that we just allowed a Chinese spy balloon to fly over our entire country before shooting it down. This is incredibly embarrassing as a nation, and the Biden administration would have you believe that the risk to people on the ground outweighed the security risks of letting it accomplish its mission, which is ludicrous. They’re now saying that we were jamming it the entire time and it never sent anything back to China, which is only believable if you know nothing about how jamming actually works.
But let’s assume that, somehow, through some DARPA wizardry, we DID stop it from transmitting. It changes very little and is besides the point. It matters little what payload the balloon carried or what it did/didn’t send home. What matters most is the damage done to our international reputation from our decision not to shoot it down.
Perception is reality in global politics. And right now, the perception is that we are weak and unwilling to come to the aid of our allies. This started with the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, which China was quick to exploit with easy propaganda wins aimed at Taiwan and Japan. “Look”, they said, “The United States abandoned their friends in Afghanistan, and they will abandon you too.”
And now this. The perception of how we handled the balloon is that we lack the resolve to protect our own nation. Our allies are right to question our resolve to protect them.
I’ve seen the results of the CSIS wargames of a PLA invasion of Taiwan. The conclusion was that we would win a pyrrhic victory, but ONLY if Taiwan held out long enough for us to arrive. Everything hinges on their willingness to fight, which hinges on their confidence in our coming to save them.
Polls show that only 40% of Taiwanese people believe that the US would come to their aid. That figure is no doubt lower after this latest embarrassment. This does not bode well when we are counting on their resolve and morale to hold the line long enough for us to take action.
I am not in the habit of making predictions, but today I make an exception. China will attack Taiwan, I don’t know when but they will. When they do, I believe that Taiwan will fold immediately because they have no faith that we will come to their aid, and won’t be willing to die in a hopeless battle. When that happens, all of our military strength, our DARPA wunderwaffen, etc. will be useless, because the battle will have already been lost before we have a chance to intervene. That is the strategic price of losing face with our allies.
If our “leaders” in DC wanted to preserve our reputation, they would have immediately announced the jamming and assured the world that everything was under control. But they didn’t do that, they announced it afterwards, which stinks of a cover-up. They either don’t care about our reputation or are actively seeking to undermine it. In either case, this does not bode well for us, the citizenry.
In closing, this whole incident was handled poorly, regardless of what you believe we did or didn’t do to jam the balloon. It made me take a closer look at my current state of preparedness, just in case something big was about to happen. You should do the same. This wasn’t a wayward weather balloon, it was doing something to facilitate intelligence preparation of the battlespace. I believe that something bigger is in the works. Get your house in order now.
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My own opinion is that I don’t much care about Ukraine, Taiwan, or China, but I do think that those of us who are Christian are going to have our hands full right here with our increasingly anti-Christian federal government. I think the covid charade is the tip of the iceberg of what we are going to see in the next few years.
@Mark sadly many in our modern churches have been fed a pacifistic line that will in the end harm them. We need to ready for multiple fronts including the domestic ones.
Yes, Delroy, the modern church has bought the corruption of Romans 13 to mean that our “leaders” are anointed by God and to be honored and obeyed therefore. Making no allowance for the behavior of said “leaders,” and referring to their 501c3 tax exemption, they refuse to condemn from the pulpit treason, theft, perversion, war for profit and murder, while betraying the congregation, urging only non violent resistance and getting out the Vote!
Not many people are aware of the role many pastors have agreed with the feds to play in an “emergency/martial law” event: to urge calm compliance and getting on the bus to the camps. There is even a name for it which escapes me at the moment.
A governmental traitor is one thing and plenty reprehensible enough… But a pastor who is traitor to God and His Church is worse yet. Hell will have to expand to make room for them all.
I absolutely agree with you on that.
“ When they do, I believe that Taiwan will fold immediately because they have no faith that we will come to their aid, and won’t be willing to die in a hopeless battle. ”
It reminds me of the below quote from Sun Tzu.
“Only fight the battle after the battle is already won.”
It’s obvious to anyone who knows anything that it was gathering SIGINT, maybe some MASINT and photos, too.
We won’t even defend our homeland….
External commies and internal useful idiot quislings are subhuman vermin unworthy of the gift of life.
Take them out with axe, gun, knife.
This whole scenario leaves one a little shaken. I’d like to know at what point the U.S. defence network actually picked up this balloon. I’d like to know what payload these balloons are capable of carrying. Would they be capable of carrying a nuclear device capable of creating an HEMP? From most accounts I’ve read HEMPs would occur at 18-40 miles up. This balloon was floating at approx. 12 miles up. I know that I have read that the CCP has been experimenting with EMP specific weapons.
When China starts loading their ships, they are probably not going to waste all that work on a trip to Taiwan…
Excellent point. Why not take Taiwan after they have humiliated the u.s.?
China has 50 million surplus military age males. They could send 500,000 soldiers to 100 countries next week.
We would be completely out of ammo within 7 days.
Johnny, I don’t doubt your numbers re: military age Chinese men.
However, I question heavily the ability of China to send 1/2 million men anywhere all at once “next week,” let alone to be able to do that 100 times. I doubt that the five or ten most capable nations together have the sea lift to accomplish such a feat. 10 K miles is a very long logistical tail, and a long slow slog.
This is in no way intended to minimize the threats posed by CCP, but assertions beyond reason do not promote understanding/preparation.
As potential G resistance, we can’t affect what “our own” so called .gov will do, let alone the chinks. All we can do is to resolve to kill our enemies, whatever uniform they wear, or none at all, until we throw them down or we are out of men and ammo. That is plenty stark and bleak enough without conflating stats into hysterics.
If we began now dealing with the domestic enemies, regained control of “our” military, we could make it much less tempting for China to act up. What are the chances of that happening? Slim, I’d say….
What’s the government’s talking points been? Citizens have been their biggest threat. Domestic Violent Extremists or China? It’s possible that’s a homegrown view but with the amount of noise that the administration is in the pocket of China, could it be that’s imported?
By law the secrets Snowden made public should have done something but we’re still getting spied on. This would be a perfect reason to “find out what the Chinese are finding out” and “study” the collected information….your information.
The border is over run , but a balloon makes us look weak… that ship sailed long ago. Every aspect of US/NATO doctrine, procurement , force structure and ‘leadership’ is being dismantled in front of the whole world in Ukraine. The freak show in charge makes ’90s Russia look like responsible governance. Unless some faction grabs the reins and goes on a jihad against the criminal over-class , especially the covid-criminals all bets are off. Crazy as it sounds , the only faction defending the US are the Federal Reserve/ money center banks. I have hated on the Fed for 30 years but they are the only group defending the dollar. Every other national institution , including the people are out to lunch. 80 % of new debt is racked up by we the people , not the Fed btw.
Taiwan demographically will soon support re-unification anyway. Local elections last November were a total rebuke of the ‘Independence’ faction ( ie. dependent on Uncle Samuel) for the first time in decades.https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwan-president-resigns-party-leader-election-loss-rcna58813
Everyone who is/was wrong about Ukraine/ Russia are even more clueless about China/Taiwan. When any American citizen can walk through Portland or Atlanta unmolested , we can talk about ‘strategy’. Hiding in the woods doesn’t count.
I agree, we’re fooked. IMO there will be no Chinese “boots on the ground” here until the invasion force of Cubans, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans who are infiltrating now have done their damage with the support of the Mexican cartels. Once that is done, then the ChiComs will send in their occupation force. The ChiComs don’t want to nuke us, they want to eliminate us so that they may colonize the nation and utilize the resources.
Face it, they-meaning the Chinese fellow travelers such as Mitch McConnell et al-have destroyed the military with the jabs and the woke BS, and have emptied the armory of consumables with no way to resupply as our manufacturing base is incapable of doing so. They have destroyed the economy with the Scamdemic, increased the level of drug dependence on fentanyl, caused mass death and disability through the jab, and have totally controlled the narrative through non stop propaganda which at least half of the country believes. I wonder if enough will wake up to the reality of the situation in time to at least make an attempt to reverse it. I am not hopeful.
I don’t see how we can sustain ANY REAL fight with a near peer.
Perhaps its my lack of….
10yrs from now….maybe.
We make very little… but produce regulation and law like the clap thru a frat boy house.
Imo.
Sobering editorial and comments. Virtually every career politician, with few exceptions, is eventually revealed as the rapacious beast he has so adamantly denied himself to be. He will obtain government contracts to appease his constituents while destroying their inheritance and progeny. His god is mammon. With utter contempt for God and the People, he enslaves the innocent and helpless, and persecutes the righteous. He is the lowest form of traitor. Mitch McConnell, while certainly not acting alone, is entirely suited to be the poster child for Satan’s army. Dare I pray for such an individual? “What doth it profit a man to gain the World and lose his soul?”
“Dare I pray for such an individual?” Absolutely. Pray for his conversion so that he might change his ways. He is salvageable until he takes his last breath, and only God knows all ends.