What would war with China look like for Australia?

via ABC.net.au

If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia?

Put bluntly, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan — or any other issue — may have catastrophic consequences.

Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at the moment, for Australians this surely is one of the most important discussions we must have.

There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world — including in Canberra — working openly and behind the scenes to ensure tensions between China and the US never escalate into war.

Rising tensions or unforeseen circumstances that could lead to war, however, can sometimes overtake those working for peace.

So to contribute to this discussion, I’ve sought analysis from four of Australia’s most experienced military strategists and asked them exactly what Australia’s involvement in a war with China could look like. The four have more than 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them.

The analysts are:

Professor Hugh White, a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence

Admiral Chris Barrie, Australia’s most senior military leader as Chief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002

Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department

Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military.

All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that it’s possible to have. All have been involved in sensitive military operations. And all are watching with great interest as the drums of war beat in some quarters regarding a possible war with China.

They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. All agree, for example, that the United States — with or without Australia’s assistance — cannot win a war against China.

Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis:

Any such war, he says, would primarily be a maritime conflict and would be on a scale unprecedented since World War II.

“Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.”

‘War would impoverish us all’

Admiral Chris Barrie makes the point that it’s possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australia’s low population.

“The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land,” he says.

He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians — “economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear”.

Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building capability and capacity “a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035”.

MORE