In 192 hours, admitted cases have gone from 24,631 to 60,363, according to the ArcGIS map here.
60,363 – 24,631 = 35,732.
35,732 / 192 = 186.1.
The absolute lowest figures available, that include sources from the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) and the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) indicate that average rate of increase in cases is 186/hour in those 196 hours. But, again, the increase is not linear.
As of January 23rd, by the Chinese researchers’ own admission:
“The R values of 2019-nCoV were 2.90 (95%CI: 2.32-3.63) and 2.92 (95%CI: 2.28-3.67) estimated using EG and ML respectively, while the corresponding R values
of SARS-CoV were 1.77 (95%CI: 1.37-2.27) and 1.85 (95%CI: 1.32-2.49).”
“EG” is exponential growth. “ML” is Maximum Likelihood. Exponential Growth Rate was 2.90%, mean.
If I use 60,363 as the starting point, and enter the conservative growth rate (much lower than the expected mean of 2.90%) of 2%, in another 192 hours there will be 2703981.9864 cases. That will be Friday, February 21st at noon.
If you don’t believe me, use the “Exponential Growth/Decay Calculator” here:
Epidemiology paper referenced above:
Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) – Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Physician’s Weekly said this on 4 February:
“The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the meanR ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R CONCLUSION: The mean estimate of R for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.”
While it is true that 96% of Chinese people have one of six genotypes coding for more numerous ACE2 receptors on alveolar cells than are normal, and so are more likely to die of ARDS (Acute Respiratory Stress Syndrome), populations of Scots, English, and and Utah residents with Northern and Western European ancestry still have more than 52% of all persons with one of those six genotypes. Tuscan Italians have the lowest percentage with 51%. That’s as low as you can go without redefining what the “normal” density of the ACE2 enzyme is. See the table below.
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