REVISITED: The Fourth Turning & The Future As I See It

I originally wrote this article back on January 30th, 2019. These were my predictions that I came up with after pondering an article on The Burning Platform titled 2019 from a Fourth Turning Perspective. I wanted to revisit these predictions at the halfway mark (3 years in) to see how I was doing – what has happened, is likely to happen, or is unlikely to happen – and to make any additional predictions or modifications for the second half of the time period leading into 2025. These were my top line predictions from that article. My current assessment is beneath the prediction.

By 2025, I expect:

1) War with China and/or Russia

While we may not get involved with the current Ukraine crisis with “boots on the ground”, I think we are certainly trending towards this, particularly with China. The current power structure in Washington DC is flailing around gasping its last breaths, so don’t be surprised if war is on the menu.

2) Low intensity conflict in the United States. Cities in particular are battlegrounds.

While civil unrest was occurring when I predicted this, I think the conflicts have only intensified since. Things haven’t really gone kinetic yet, but the ground work is certainly being laid for this.

3) Recession in which 40% of the stock market value disappears

The Fed is doing a fantastic job of propping up an overleveraged economy built on debt, but the current inflation crisis and marker dips are showing how weak the system really is.

3a) Bailouts for Wall Street again

The Fed policy is already a bailout, but the CAREs funding and record stock market allowed for buy backs of stocks, further increasing value.

3b) Potential bailout of student loans

Biden used it as a campaign promise but he has little hope of achieving it.

3c) Questions surrounding the Full Faith and Credit of the United States. Credit rating is downgraded.

31 Jul 2020 – Fitch Ratings has affirmed United States’ Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) and Local-Currency (LC) Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at ‘AAA’ and revised the Outlooks to Negative from Stable.

4) Major overhauls of entitlement systems

Nothing here yet, but not for a lack of desire or trying. I guess you could file the stimulus checks under here, but that wasn’t what I was envisioning.

5) Major anti-gun legislation passed

We have managed to fend this off quite well legislatively. However, we have seen the bump stock ban as well as a crack down on binary triggers, wide open triggers, pull and release triggers, etc.

6) Major demographic shift causing major political shift

Invasion at the Southern border under Biden, anyone?

7) Democrats control Congress and Presidency in 2024

With how shitty of a job that Biden has done, this one may not be true. I was assuming a Trump victory in 2020 – not a blatant steal – so I was assuming the party would shift after 8 years of GOP control. Since 2020 was one by a Communist who is incredibly unpopular, this one may not ultimately be true.

8) IMF making moves to replace USD as world reserve currency with the SDR currency basket

4 Nov 2021 – “The current dollar-centric system cannot continue forever,” said Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley. “A multipolar international monetary and financial system is coming, as the United States accounts for a declining share of the global economy.”

9) European Union, as it is today, ceases to exist

I expected more countries to initiate their own Brexit style escape from the EU, so in that aspect this has not proven true. However, the current fractures in Europe are straining the alliance. The implementation of COVID policies really drove home the divide between the East and West sides, and the current mixed response to the threat of Russian invasion (i.e. Germany not giving a fuck while the Baltics and Balkans do) highlight this on an international level.

10) Major civil unrest in Europe.

Do I need to explain this? Between the lockdown protests, clashes with migrants, and the dust up in Ukraine, it is safe to say that there is just a teensy bit of unrest in Europe

https://www.lifecourse.com/media/articles/lib/2015/09112015.html

Here are some other highlights from the article that I got either super right or super wrong thus far.

The biggest threats we face as a country are all intertwined (thus, don’t consider this a ranked list) and are: civil unrest due to a growing divide between ideologies, economic slowdowns due to massive debt and employment trends, and outside challenge of the unipolar world by China and Russia.

Check, check, and check. I did not foresee the econmic slowdown being exacerbated by the deliberate release of the WuFlu, but such black swan events are hard to predict.

I think that civil conflict is unfortunately an inevitability. There is no putting the dogs back in the cage, so to speak. The clash today is no longer about issues but about fundamental ideologies. Ideology always drove the arguments, but there was room to compromise without giving up core beliefs. Compromise was enough. On both sides, compromise is only seen as another step in the direction of completely implementing your side’s agenda against your opponent’s best wishes.

I know longer think it is – I know it is. It is no longer a “you want 20% tax rate, I want 10%, let’s do 15%). It is a battle for the core ideology of America and the beliefs that we were built on.

If they want to remove Trump, they need to remove him through the 2020 election because short of Trump receiving a wad of cash from Putin on video, his supporters will not believe them. It is because the war and the Deep State/Establishment have been at war with him for over two years.

lol. I mean, I wasn’t wrong. I just didn’t think it would be in the forms of suitcases stuffed with ballots and shady flash drives.

These visions will be exacerbated by the coming economic crisis, which is threefold. The first piece is the corporate debt issues that are the reason the stock market is grossly over inflated. The second piece is the burgeoning public sector debt and pension system underfunding in places like California, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Thirdly, the skyrocketing personal debt (student loans, housing market) that will be unpayable will drag consumers down. As the economic system falters, there will be a lot of pain for normal Americans.

We have seen the inflated housing market return, an inflated stock market long due for a correction (at minimum) or a recession, and personal debt sky rocket with the lockdowns forcing people out of work and the costs of basic goods increasing.

Our adversaries overseas – namely China and Russia – will seize the opportunity this presents. With America distracted at home, they will engage in both a “fanning of the flames” in the United States as well as overt moves in their spheres of influence. China will secure the South China Sea and the waters between the mainland and the first ring of islands. Russia will regain some ground in Eastern Europe and, with the European Union faltering through their own insatiable lust for globalism, there will be little we can do to prevent it. If we go to war with China and/or Russia, I suspect that we will lose. With China’s hypersonic missiles and anti-satellite capabilities coupled with their electronic warfare and cyber offensive capabilities, I do not think we can defeat them. It would be ground to a stalemate, and the public at home will not stomach major American causalities – in fact, China is planning on just that. If anything, the Leftists in America will cheer China’s moves as a sign that Communism is winning. Russia’s cyber offensive capabilities are also very dangerous, and I imagine that our critical infrastructure – already grossly unprotected – will see more probes and shutdowns. The war against China and Russia will be an attempt by our politicians to unite the country towards a common enemy, but it will not work.

We are watching this play out before our very eyes.

In summation, some of these predictions may seem obvious – and, at the time, some were. What has shocked me is how quickly those predictions came to fruition. The quick degradation of the system – particularly after Brandon’s inauguration, but really starting with the WuFlu mania – has caught me off guard and has forced me to accelerate some prep plans that I had a longer timeline for.

What are your predictions for the next three years?

As an aside, The Burning Platform has been doing an excellent job with continued reporting since that original article came out. I have put below their subsequent reporting on The Fourth Turning (from newest to oldest).

FOURTH TURNING 2022 – BAD MOON RISING (PART 2)

FOURTH TURNING 2022 – BAD MOON RISING

IT’S A FOURTH TURNING: WHAT DID YOU EXPECT?

FOURTH TURNING DETONATION (PART TWO)

FOURTH TURNING DETONATION

FOURTH TURNING ELECTION YEAR CRISIS

FOURTH TURNING ACCELERATING TOWARDS CLIMAX

FOURTH TURNING ECONOMICS (PART TWO)

FOURTH TURNING ECONOMICS