The Chinese are planning a new global order that does not include the United States. If their implicit movements were not enough, the most recent statement by Chinese Navy Rear Admiral Lou Yuan speaks volumes. From the Navy Times:

“What the United States fears the most is taking casualties,” the admiral said, before adding that such an attack on two of the U.S. Navy’s steel behemoths would claim upwards of 10,000 lives.

Lou went on to call America’s military, money, talent, voting system and fear of adversaries the five U.S. weaknesses that can be easily exploited, according to the report.

“We’ll see how frightened America is,” he said.

China’s position now is not unlike Japan of the 1930s, with two major differences. China does not fear its northern neighbor, Russia, as Imperial Japan did, and Japan had little experience in countering the new threat of the aircraft carrier. Well, that and nuclear arms. But America’s long dominant tool of force projection runs the risk of becoming obsolete, partially based on previous Japanese strategy from WWII. As Matt Bracken noted in a previous article regarding the deployment of Russian bombers to Venezuela,

Many strategists consider the American carrier battle group to be obsolete because of Russian and Chinese standoff missiles like the ones carried by the Blackjack. Our CVNs have less than a thousand mile protective radius (CAP), but salvos of ship-killing missiles can be launched from far beyond that range. Our CVNs are now too vulnerable to place them within effective attack range of China, for example…

…The next war against a peer or near-peer adversary may reveal a paradigm shift on the level of what happened in WW2 with Japanese land-based bombers sinking the British Prince of Wales and Repulse.

From the tactical end it would appear that for all their expense in fielding, the CVN battle group is not only at risk but nearly irrelevant. The primary purpose of the deterrence patrols in the South China Sea is protection of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The later is a prime target of Red China, seeking ‘reunification’ with the island nation established by Chinese nationalists who fled Mao’s revolution. The US has taken a protectionist stance towards Taiwan and although the conflict has not made headlines in recent years, it is a major focal point of conflict for the Chinese. The National Interest seems to have a contrary opinion, noting,

Rest easy. Washington and Beijing aren’t going to war in the sea anytime soon. Both capitals have an incentive to prevent it from happening, and no ridiculous comment from an armchair general with a record of braggadocio is going to upend the status-quo.

I disagree. Red China is simply waiting until they’ve completely outmaneuvered us strategically. After all, their funding is directly linked to the migrant crisis, owns large scale propaganda platforms marketed to them, provides funding to major academic thinktanks which in turn suggest governmental policy, and has stolen vast amounts of technology from us. This, coupled with their greater moves in the Panama Canal region and influence in the Caribbean and Africa, I’d argue their dependence on trade with the US is nearing an end. And when they no longer need us, they’ll seek to eliminate us.

There is no political solution, and there should be no question that you need training. What’s your goals for 2019?

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