My thoughts on Russia, Ukraine and Putin.
Long-time AP readers will remember something about my background in the Army as a HUMINT specialist. While I don’t have decades of experience running sources, conducting interrogations and doing other interesting intelligence shenanigans, I do have eight years of it at a tactical and a strategic level in places like Korea, Afghanistan, Germany and a few other spots. I was lucky enough to do intelligence work with special operations teams in those locations and had some officers, warrant officers and NCOs that put me in a good position to do my job and author many intelligence reports, some of which ended up being useful for some of the most dangerous men on the planet.
Enough about me, I’m just trying to tell you that my opinions on the current news of the year is worth a bit more than your local barber or mailman, but really it’s worth what you think it is. It’s not extensive or groundbreaking, but it’s probably not what CNN is telling you.
The US media is telling us that Putin has gone insane. In my opinion he’s actually been pretty consistent for decades now, having stated many times that he intended to rebuild the Soviet Union. Anyone with a few brain cells, including Vladimir Putin, knows he’s not going to gain control of every country that used to be part of the Soviet Union, but Ukraine would be a major part of that, and most likely would be all they need, since they’ve also got the support (for what it’s worth) of Belarus. Recently a video was posted here on AP showing some reasons that Russia has invaded, and it essentially boils down to pressure from Russia’s economic woes, their status as a petro-state, difficulty in defending their western edge, the expansion of NATO on their border and the aging Russian population. Knowing how the Russian government views NATO, they essentially felt their backs were against the wall and they had little choice. That’s a major possibility and I hold that view. It doesn’t take a genius to understand that western intelligence agencies had a big hand in the Ukraine revolution in 2014. That revolution was painful for the Russian government and it accelerated the need for kinetic action in Ukraine.
My opinion for why the war isn’t going so well for Russia is because they might be trying to wage a third generational war in a third, fourth and fifth generational environment. Is it more important to destroy a hundred enemy tanks, or is it more important for the world to think you destroyed a hundred enemy tanks? That question isn’t so easy to answer in 2022. Ukraine has three powerful weapons: World popular support, home field advantage and Javelin missiles. When I saw that the invasion had begun, the first thing I said to my wife was “I hope Ukraine has Javelins”.
I believe that Putin was either given some bad intelligence on what was going to happen, or he was given accurate intelligence and didn’t take it into consideration, or thought he had to ignore it. Putin is not an idiot and he’s not crazy. I think it’s more likely he was given some faulty intelligence and has made the mistake of reducing his pool of advisors to people who aren’t going to challenge him and tell him bad news.
Overall, I’m not highly impressed with the Russian military capabilities they’ve demonstrated. I had my doubts during my career concerning Russian military capabilities and wrote some papers during those years regarding various nations’ military capabilities because I was interested in those things. My stance was basically that they were formidable, but not the giant many thought they were. I maintain that stance now.
I am not the only one saying this, but I’m in the camp that doesn’t see a path to a stable victory for Russia in this war. Even if they achieve a tactical victory, which now looks unlikely, a strategic defeat looms. I’m not even sure Putin’s presidency is going to survive this. Either way, Russia is not going to gain the status their leadership hoped they would. Winning large scale wars in these days is much harder than it ever has been, and Russia is learning that lesson now.
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Good read and great points, Gray Man.
I think your conclusion is sound. No ‘peaches ‘n cream’ for Putin’s exit plan. RUSS doesn’t have the manpower (much less treasure) to occupy a restive country like UKR. At best, the Donbass, maybe, since there’s ethnic RUSS there already to support that.
Worse, like Matt Bracken says–some faction or splinter group will always be “offended” by a peace plan–so their goal will be to avenge their real or imagined butthurt. Like taking some of those Stinger or MANPADs and wreaking havoc on UKR, RUSS, or even the EEC.
The previously perceived “invincible” RUSS Army–not so invincible. THAT is a huge optic to be reckoned with at many levels.
And that “marriage of convenience” between RUSS and CHINA–to build that Belt ‘n Road Initiative–methinks neither side trusts the other. Each has their own goals. Kinda like that cartoon when Hitler signed a non-aggression pact with Stalin: keep the peace for at least a little while…”Wonder how long the honeymoon lasts?”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/books/2020/10/23/TELEMMGLPICT000242380476_trans_NvBQzQNjv4Bq3g36hDTT4oP76y-UnLMS0-0fW4e89wVQSH97a4GYL_U.jpeg?impolicy=logo-overlay
The fact so many experts from the empire of lies that hasn’t won a war since (Japan only) in 45 makes me know Russia must be winning big time. I know it must be hard for people raised in a failed system to see one winning and understand what’s going on.
Total projection. Those javelins objectively suck-unless you understand the purpose was to enrich Raytheon shareholders at the expense of the American people.
I agree that Russia is fighting 3rd Generation Warfare. But just as you pointed out, it’s more important to make the world think you destroyed all these helicopters and tanks than it is to actually do it, in regards to 5th Gen war. Ukraine has Javelins but more importantly, they have the entire western mainstream media to share Ukrainian wartime propaganda.
Russia is certainly losing troops and equipment, it is a near peer conflict, afterall. While videos are swirling the internet depicting ‘crippling Russian loses’, there are also ‘official reports’ on western media of Russia taking hold of cities and closing in on Kiev.
Very good, objective and fair view on this conflict. I totally agree with you on the idea of Putin given false intelligence view of Ukraine forces. I also think that was done on purpose to ensure that Russia is dragged into this war. I’m from Eastern Europe and I know enough about Russian mentality to know that they are willing to sacrifice a lot to achieve their goal…and that’s what is so concerning for me. The world has never been so close to the start of nuclear war. Peace and God bless!
Excellent article. Thank you sir. I appreciate the insights.
They just scaled up what they did in Syria. Methodical, boring and ultimately successful. Putin turned Chechnya from a madhouse into his most stalwart ally. The same will be repeated in the bulk of Ukraine. The average non-mental Ukrainian are seeing the truth on the ground. It doesn’t matter what the average serf in the west thinks. One by one the western ‘elites’’ vassal grift operations are being rolled up. We let a dementia patient steal power. Purim’s ratings are rising in Russia and worldwide.
Western Pravda had setup a strategic strawman in this conflict and so it sits smugly proclaiming the presumed failures of Russia. Imparting what would be your goals onto your opponent is a mistake in the great game.
Ukrainian casualtie counts are as hyper inflated as our dollar is soon to be and I doubt the U.S. .gov ones are much more accurate.
I am firmly of the opinion this conflict will be a win for Russia as long as they can prevent a coup in the home country. The U.S. through it’s bully diplomacy and hubris has I believe set in motion the terminal phase of the petro-dollar and America is now bound to be wrecked by either WW3 or economic implosion. I actually wonder if the Russians have dragged this out a bit to encourage the West to go full ‘nuclear’ economically speaking to finally break the world out of dollar slavery, a bit 4D chess I admit but the long term benefit it provides to our competitors definitely makes it a high reward risk.
I find it somewhat amusing when everyone opining about the failures of the Russians to have fully conquered the Ukes fail to acknowledge the Russians aren’t fighting the Ukes but all of the West. I am curious how well the knowledgeable ones think our own military would fair against an opponent armed in the same way as the Ukes?
Other than leveling the country ala ‘shock and awe’, how well would the U.S. fair against an opponent like the Ukes as supplied and as supported?
Either way it is of little consequence, even if the Russian casualties are as high as estimated I think history will show it was a relatively cheap price to pay for the economic destruction of the West and a polar shift in the geopolitical order.
This.
Maybe Russia does not need to “win” in the short term. They have lead to the exposure of the corruption in Ukraine, by resident Joe, and others in the dc establishment; eventually Amerikan pravda will not be able to contain the truth. Russia has hurt the petrodollar, and caused dc to grovel to Iran and Venezuela for oil, which must be laughably sweet for them. Maybe what we are seeing is “maskarovka” being played out. Maybe they just botched the invasion, and got lucky that they got to cause massive turmoil to their West. Maybe the war is by design to a degree, just get it started, see how it plays out, what benefits can be gained…
There is so much bs going around about Ukraine that I am beginning to think that it rally IS part of the Great Reset Plan, or perhaps Putin, like Saddam, was given the green light on Ukraine by Washington, only to be surprised by reaction. However, I wonder about things like how if Kiev is surrounded, how come foreign dignitaries and the press come and go? His are the lights still on if the “evil Russians,* are out to cause as much suffering as possible? Check out this post of a guy that went to Kiev to find out:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500175827161554946.html?ref_src=aimlessnews
The thing that I know for certain is that my cost of living is up substantially and that people that actually WANT to do me and mine harm are much closer to home. We are the #1 targets of our own government. Let that sink in…
As for Russia losing, they are not fighting the way we fought that’s for sure. The amount of preparation of the battlefield that occurs before we send 11 Bravo’s in takes weeks, if not months. Ukraine also had 8 years of defensive preparation with our help. Our maybe they were offensive positions? Ie. this was all going to happen anyway, after a Ukie offensive on the Donbas. So the Russians threw the first punch. Ukraine also had the second largest standing army in Europe. I guess we get to find out soon enough. Lwta hope it doesn’t cost us more of our precious blood.
This is a very interesting perspective! I’m reminded of Baghdad Bob and his performance during the invasion of Iraq. His propaganda was epoch, but the truth on the ground was much different and that truth on the ground drives all warfare. Yes, popular support and public perception are important, but not nearly as important as battlefield success. I believe that Putin understands this and was taking a “kinder gentler” approach early in his offensive to avoid mass civilian casualties and destruction, which is a departure from soviet doctrine of heavy artillery bombardment. Russian forces are equipped and trained for a specific doctrine, and when the force structure doesn’t match doctrine there is always trouble. If the conflict continues I expect to see the Russians revert to heavy use of supporting fires. Destroying the infrastructure of a country they are trying to incorporate into their sphere doesn’t make much sense, but it is certainly preferable to failure now that forces are engaged in the field. Putin now has to decide if he is going to finish the fight on the ground and let the international opinion matters fall where they will, or negotiate a peace and take stock of the international situation as well as the tactical issues his army has faced. In either case I think this conflict is going to be dragged out in an irregular/gray-zone environment for some time to come. It took Russia a couple tries at Chechnya too.
Excellent.
Wow. Go AP readers! Lot to unpack in these posts. Good stuff.
To update the old Soviet joke: Two Russian tank commanders are having breakfast in a cafe in Lvyv. The first one asks the second, “so who won the media war?”
The Russian MOD reports that the “Special Operation” is proceeding “According to Plan”. Do any of the “Western Analists” (spelling intentional) or Keyboard Commandos have a Copy of the Plan? I know I don’t, so I have to speculate, like everyone else. Even considering the Fog of War, and the Massive Propaganda Effort on the part of the (((media))), two things are Obvious –
First, the perception that the Red Army is ‘bogged down’ is clearly False- if they used even a Fraction of the Available Firepower, in true “Blitzkrieg” Tactics, there wouldn’t be anything left of Kiev except Shattered Rubble and Burned Bodies. Look up the Vids of the TOS-M1 Flame Rocket System, or Iskandar Tactical Missiles with Thermobaric Warheads.
It is Obvious that the Russians are Taking Casualties that they don’t need to, in order Not to Destroy the Ukraine, like the Evil Empire did in Iraq. The Lights are still on in Kiev, likely from the Nuclear Power Plants that the Russians have Secured and kept Operating.
Second, the Russians have been doing some very Selective Targeting, of Ukronazi Bases and Command/Control/Communications Centers, using Cruise Missiles (Kaliber) and Ballistic Missiles such as Iskandar, and the Air-Launched version, Khintzal. These Attacks have rendered the UKN Army into scattered Battalions without Direction or resupply, and they will soon face the Choice of Surrendering, or being Destroyed.
Both of these apparent facts lead me to believe that Russia is working (as they Claim) for a ‘de-Nazification’ i.e., Regime Change in the Ukraine, and by Refraining from a campaign of Mass Destruction and Death, substantially reducing the chances that there will be an “Insurgency” that is Local (as opposed to manufactured by the FUSSA/Nato)
Anyone who has actually been Listening to what the Russians have been Saying for the last Year or two, that they see NATO Expansion into the Ukraine as a Red Line that they WILL NOT ALLOW shouldn’t be Surprised that Shoigu was told to “Fix It”.
From one former Intel guy to another, I’d say your analysis of the situation has a high probability of being correct. Putin is calculating, always has been. It’s a possibility that Russia’s multi-axis attack, while diluting overall striking power and success of any one axis, was designed to inflict max damage to Ukrainian fielded forces and infrastructure, over forcing a total capitulation. Time will tell.
For additional sources, Institute for the Study of War does a good daily roll up, and Michael Kofman and Rob Lee on Twitter provide good insight as well. Jomini of the West (also on Twitter) has some pretty comprehensive maps of assessed UKR and RUS disposition of forces.
A number of solid comments on this one.