Surviving Real SHTF: Chaos In Quito, Part 9
This is the continuing coverage of the unfolding SHTF situation in Ecuador being reported by an American Partisan reader and expat living in the nation. It is going from bad to much worse, with reports of violence among the large scale demonstrations. It won’t be long now.
Previously I had been helping him remotely to build up the local Red Cross chapter off-grid communications, which was left in shambles from neglect and no serious attitude towards them amid more convenient methods. And now here they are, with periodic outages just in the beginning phases of what looks like a long term bad situation playing out.
Expat ‘Fred’ has collected a series of news articles covering the incidents in real time. At this time it appears the real players have unfolded- Maduro (and Russia, and China) are seeking to destabilize the entire region, piece by piece. Still wondering where those 50K AK-103s being built per year in Caracas are headed? And where will they go after that? I’ll give you a hint- I suspect they’ll be coming north.
Recap:
- Chaos in Ecuador from an Expat On the Ground
- Surviving Real SHTF: Chaos In Quito
- Surviving Real SHTF: Chaos in Quito, Part 2
- Surviving Real SHTF: Chaos In Quito Part 3
- Surviving Real SHTF: Chaos In Quito Part 4
- Surviving Real SHTF: Chaos In Quito, Part 5
- Surviving Real SHTF: Chaos In Quito, Part 6
- Surviving Real SHTF: Chaos In Quito, Part 7
- Surviving Real SHTF: Chaos In Quito, Part 8
Here’s his updates:
Central Cotacachi is closed. Want something, you have to know a local shopkeeper and IF they have it. I have talked about the violence in the country and the protests. From the economic side we are beginning to see consequences in the economy- everyone is out of work. Prices on goods are increasing. Last week a flat of 30 eggs cost $3.15. Today its almost $8. A whole chicken when you can find it is between $14 and$15. This is not like Venezuela where a combination of scarcity and a fluctuating currency contribute to price changes, Ecuador is on the US$ so its a direct result of supply and demand…..scarcity.
Streets are quiet and tense. Less police presence than yesterday but a lot less people as well–possibly the bulk of the people headed for protests left yesterday. There was a group of about 30 indigenous, Kichua who were patrolling the streets as a group, armed with hardwood staffs. Friendly and open to conversation, I talked with them a bit and asked what they were doing , was told ” protecting our community and the people here”…..
As part of a rapidly changing situation…..what prompted part of what has happened this morning in Casa de Culture was…… last night in Quito, protesters were allowed to sleep in a number of places, “refuges” for them . One of the places was the Salesian University. Curfew was 8 PM. Around 7 PM last night Ecuadorian police fired tear gas grenade into an area where protesters were sleeping. It killed one of the directors of the Conae indigenous national conference, the woman died from either being struck or asphyxiated. This was not known to the indigenous community or Conae until they were told this morning around 7PM. This is the best information I have been able to gather about what happened this morning. the police have apologised for this incident with no effect.
I am seeing reports that there are some disagreements in Guayaquil between members of the Ecuadorian military and the National Police that led to at least one incident of conflict between a group of soldiers and the police.
More to follow
In the midst of a massive march led by indigenous groups in the capital of Ecuador, the government presented on Wednesday a series of proposals to “return to peace in the country.”
Thousands of indigenous people marched through the historic center of Quito in protest of the elimination of the fuel subsidy that entered into force last week.
Some of them, directly demanding the departure of President Lenin Moreno .
To end the protests, the general secretary of the presidency, José Augusto Briones, offered indigenous communities a plan focused on the agricultural sector “with six axes of action in rurality.”The goal, said the official at a press conference, is to ” compensate for the effects of the end of the fuel subsidy ” and generate new opportunities.
However, the elimination of subsidies, the main cause of the protests, remains.
Briones said the government is willing to broaden the discussion with the indigenous people to reach agreements.
He indicated that these are initial conversations “to build trust between the parties” and raised a mediation with the intervention of the United Nations and the Episcopal Conference.
The plan proposed by the Lenin Moreno government includes:
1. Water: facilitate access to water through a plot irrigation system
2. Land: restructure debts of organizations that are not up to date on payments for financing their land
3. Field and production: financing and agricultural insurance; remission of 100% of fines imposed by Senagua (Secretary of Water); development of technological kits, machinery and establishment of collection centers
4. Livestock and pasture: development of 2,000 hectares of improved pastures
5. Education: reopening of multigrade schools and increase of bilingual teachers
6. Rural transport: adaptation of 500 km of rural railways
The government also proposes the establishment of community development projects based on equity and participation.
Briones said compliance with the proposals will be monitored by a commission made up of delegates, indigenous communities, mediators (the UN and the Episcopal Conference), and the national government.
He added that the only condition of the government is “to return to peace in the country.” Indigenous leaders have denied dialogue with the government
The official said that the proposals are derived from a preliminary meeting held a day earlier with the UN as a mediator in which delegates from the main indigenous organizations, the Conaie, Confeniae and Ecuarunari, as well as delegates from the labor unions.
However, on the request of the indigenous sector to repeal the decree that eliminates the subsidy to gasoline, the official said that in order to sit down to dialogue, Ecuador must first be pacified.
Briones presented his proposal hours after President Lenin Moreno returned to Quito from Guayaquil, where on Monday, amid strong protests, he decided to install the government headquarters.
Moreno launched a message on social networks ensuring that the dialogue is getting closer and that “the crisis will be resolved soon.”
But the head of the Conaie, Jaime Vargas, said then that there are no dialogues, since his “fight is in the streets”.
More to follow
No word on the custody situation of the police taken hostage by the indigenous in Casa de la Cultura this morning.
Prices increased by 25 to 120 percent starting, as the gallon of gasoline will go from US$1.85 to US$2.30. While diesel, used by most freight transport, will increase from UThe statistical projection was based on data from the latest Employment and Unemployment Survey (December 2018) released by the Institute of Statistics and Census of Ecuador, in which the poverty line used for this estimate is US$84.75 per capita per month.
According to the official data, poverty in December reached 23 percent. So if inflation rose by only one percent, poverty would increase by 0.3 percent, representing 53,795 new poor.
In the extreme case that inflation reaches ten percent, 576,000 would enter poverty
“The poverty simulation does not incorporate any behavior in the demand or other variables, which makes it a partial equilibrium estimate. Despite this, it seems reliable, to the extent that Ecuador is an economy in recession and wages will not grow to compensate for the inflationary effect,” Oliva added.
On the issue regarding economists’ claims that fuel subsides actually benefitted the top tiers of society more than those at the bottom mainly based on an Inter-American Development Bank article, CELAG’s study used the same article from the IADB to point out that it recommends that “removing the diesel subsidy is regressive,” meaning it affects the majority.
On average 300,000 Ecuadoreans, around two percent of the population, will fall into poverty as a direct result of President Lenin Moreno’s decision to eliminate the country’s fuel subsidies, according to a new study published Thursday by the Latin American Geopolitical Strategic Center (CELAG).
This comes as Ecuador’s President announced last week the elimination of gasoline subsidies, tax and labor reforms, and other economic measures aimed at complying with the conditions of the loans granted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In a televised speech on Oct. 3, he stated that executive order 883 “liberates the price of diesel and extra gasoline,” justifying his decision by saying that the Ecuadorean state allocates more than US$1.3 billion a year in fuel subsidies.
A day later prices increased by 25 to 120 percent starting, as the gallon of gasoline will go from US$1.85 to US$2.30. While diesel, used by most freight transport, will increase from US$1.03 to US$2.27.
The increases in fuel prices will have a domino effect on all prices as transport costs will rise, which will likely be transferred to the consumer, thus increasing inflation rates while peoples’ wages stay the same but loose purchasing power.
Based on projections, and taking into account other analyzes, inflation could be around five to six percent, as a result of the fuel price increase. Under this scenario, poverty would be 1.7 to two percent higher, which means between 296,000 and 340,000 people who would cross that poverty line.
“Cash transfers have been offered to lessen the detrimental effect. However, we must consider that as macroeconomic conditions deteriorate and the economy enters into recession, the more the density of people who approach the poverty line increases,” Nicolas Oliva, economist, and author of the analysis explained.
The statistical projection was based on data from the latest Employment and Unemployment Survey (December 2018) released by the Institute of Statistics and Census of Ecuador, in which the poverty line used for this estimate is US$84.75 per capita per month.
According to the official data, poverty in December reached 23 percent. So if inflation rose by only one percent, poverty would increase by 0.3 percent, representing 53,795 new poor.
In the extreme case that inflation reaches ten percent, 576,000 would enter poverty
“The poverty simulation does not incorporate any behavior in the demand or other variables, which makes it a partial equilibrium estimate. Despite this, it seems reliable, to the extent that Ecuador is an economy in recession and wages will not grow to compensate for the inflationary effect,” Oliva added.
On the issue regarding economists’ claims that fuel subsides actually benefitted the top tiers of society more than those at the bottom mainly based on an Inter-American Development Bank article, CELAG’s study used the same article from the IADB to point out that it recommends that “removing the diesel subsidy is regressive,” meaning it affects the majority.
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